The Degenerate Gambler: Week One

The Degenerate Gambler is a weekly column that sets over/unders on various things around the NFL. The Degenerate Gambler in no way endorses gambling, degenerate activities of any kind, or even reading this column.

Number of quarterbacks who will see playing time for the Oakland Raiders: Over/Under: 3.

The call: Over, and I'm going to say a prayer every night that one of them is Jeff George. Not because I think he'll be particularly terrible, in fact, he's probably better than anyone else on the Raiders roster right now. But come on, it's Jeff George. If you can't laugh at that, what can you laugh at?

Well, you can start with Aaron Brooks. I believe there were a couple of times last year in New Orleans/San Antonio where he took the snap, dropped back, scanned the defense, identified a friendly face in an opposing uniform, and then sprinted towards that player and handed him the football, complete with a ribbon and hand-written note that said, "Ah, it was going to end up in your hands anyway. Love, Aaron."

Randy Moss has already stated his preference for Andrew Walter. Walter's going to play. Along with Brooks, that puts the total at two, and an injury somewhere will probably lead to a Marques Tuiasosopo appearance. If you're looking for more information on him, please observe that Aaron Brooks and Andrew Walter are the clear number one and number two quarterbacks for Oakland.

All we'd need after that is a knee-jerk panic reaction from Al Davis, and we will have Jeff George, in uniform, on an NFL field, in 2006. And that leave us only two steps away from a Ken Stabler comeback.


Number of teams from the NFC East that make the playoffs: Over/Under: 2½.

The call: Under. Every one of these teams has a legitimate right to believe they're at least playoff contenders. I've got the Cowboys penciled in as making the playoffs, and I've got the Redskins penciled out, if it is indeed possible to pencil something out. Perhaps the proper team would be "erased." I don't know. But they aren't making the playoffs.

You can say that the preseason doesn't mean anything, but you know what does mean something? When your team is absolutely, positively worthless in the preseason. Believe what you want about these exhibition games, but I don't know how you could construe anything positive about the fact that the Redskins starters never even sniffed the endzone. Maybe they'll get into the flow of their new offense later in the season, but they look like an early season train wreck, and in a division this competitive, it's going to hard to dig out of any hole.

Which leaves the Giants and the Eagles, both of whom I think will be playoff-caliber teams. Someone in a weaker NFC division (which is all of them) will feast on enough cupcakes, and unfortunately, keep a better team out of the playoffs. Probably the Giants.


Number of Brett Favre interceptions: Over/Under: 23½.

The call: Under. I think 23 is a fair place to set the line. Favre threw 29 interceptions last year, and truly remarkable seasons like that don't come along very often. You can play at that high of a level in stretches, but it's hard to do it in back-to-back seasons. By the same token, Shaun Alexander was great last year, and I expect him to be great again this year, but he's probably not getting back to 27 touchdowns.

If you throw out the 29, Favre's other best interception year of his career was in 1993, when he threw 24 of them, and he hit the 23 mark in both '98 and '99. To hit the over, he's going to have to equal his pre-2005 career high, and I certainly have the utmost faith in his ability to play at that level. But I don't know if he'll play enough games. When Green Bay's 2-7, they've got to give some time to Aaron Rogers, don't they?

Combined, Favre and Rogers will hit the over. Favre himself, though, is going under.


Number of Brett Favre interceptions that are blamed on someone other than Brett Favre. Over/Under: 20.

The call: Over. The most remarkable thing about Brett Favre's 29 interceptions last year was that not a single of them was his fault. What incredible bad luck this guy has. It was always a receiver's failure to make a move on the ball, or a breakdown in the offensive line, or the Wilson company manufacturing a football with poor aerodynamics, or a butterfly off the west coast of Africa flapping his wings, leading to a stiff breeze hitting Lambeau field at the wrong time, or the evil forces of gravity. All conspired against Favre last year.

At least, that's what I understood from commentators. And granted, Favre is working with a pretty terrible supporting cast, and his line does leave him hanging, and his receivers do largely suck, but ... every now and then, one of them is his fault, despite with Joe Theismann would have you believe.


Number of games Terrell Owens misses this year: Over/Under: 2½.

The call: Over. Games missed could be for any reason: Injury, suspension, benched for being himself, actually murdered by Bill Parcells, framed for the murder of Jon Benet Ramsey, anything.

The biggest factor in my over call is actually not insanity, but injuries. He's 32 years old, and he's been limping around on that hamstring all summer long. And he's clearly not going to hold himself out of team activities if he feels his health is at stake. I've got him penciled in for missing at least two games due to injury.

The other half-game, of course, is covered by the fact that he's Terrell Owens, and something's going to go wrong. If it didn't, we'd all be left to question everything we know about the universe. There will be a blow-up between Owens and Drew Bledsoe, and Parcells is not going to be taking Terrell's side. If 2½ was the over/under on tearful interviews with Michael Irvin, I might go barely under, but for games missed, over 2½ seems like an easy call. In fact, Owens could easily hit the over, and it would still be a successful season.


Number of times Kurt Warner says to Matt Leinart, "We need to have a talk about Jesus." Over/Under: 9.

The call: Over. Kurt Warner is staying up at night trying to think of ways to save Matt Leinart's soul. Leinart has dated Paris Hilton, and fathered a child out of wedlock ... this has to be driving the ultra-religious Warner insane. They rub the back of their hands on the same man's taint, for crying out loud, and that's a lot to expect Warner to deal with. And depending on how crazy the God is that Kurt Warner worships, Kurt either detests Leinart and believes he will spend eternity engulfed in the flames of sin, or Warner's working overtime on getting Leinart to church every Sunday.

Either way, Leinart's going to get tired of those religious brochures that "someone" keeps leaving in his locker. He's going to get very tired of Kurt Warner disguising his voice and getting on the stadium PA system after practice and saying, "Matt Leinart, this is God. No, really, this is God. I know I may sound like Kurt Warner, but this is God, Matt, and I don't like you."


Number of games before Vince Young is starting for the Titans: Over/Under: 7½.

The call: Under. You can trot Billy Volek and Kerry Collins out there if you want to, but really, what's the point? The Titans shouldn't be terrible, but it's also a bit of a stretch to believe that they'll be contending the playoffs. It's not like Collins or Volek, at this point in their careers, are going to morph into Unitas-esque gamebreakers. They are what they are, and they aren't special.

So why not put the young buck under center, get him some experience, and see what you have? Honestly, judging from the preseason, it looks like he's a little behind Matt Leinart and Jay Cutler as a passer. So get him some playing time, see if he's one of those guys who just elevates it when it counts, or if he's someone who's just not going to be that good of an NFL quarterback. It's better if you find these things out as soon as you possibly can. If you're going to draft a bad quarterback, it's better to find that out in two years than in six.


Number of touchdown celebrations better than Daunte Culpepper's "Get Your Roll On." Over/Under: All of them.

The call: Push. I do not understand the Stuttering Traveling Violation that Daunte Culpepper calls every time he throws a touchdown pass. Is this an impression of a FIBA referee? I don't understand why people like this, I don't know why Daunte thinks it's cool, and I don't know why we allow him to get away with it. It's the Jay Leno of touchdown celebrations. Nearly everyone else is doing something better, but for reasons that no one can understand, it remains popular.

I heard earlier that he might retire it this year, in an effort to completely distance himself from his career in Minnesota. But then you see him doing it in a commercial for Madden '07, and it looks like he doesn't want to let it go. That's a shame. I was hoping to not have to extend my middle finger at the television every time the Dolphins scored through the air.


Number of Pac Man Jones personal foul penalties + Number of Pac Man Jones arrests. Over/Under: 14.

The call: Under. You know me, I'm an eternal optimist. And I believe in Pac Man. He's an easy target right now, given, you know ... that he gets arrested every other Tuesday. But he's eventually going to figure these things out, and when he does, what the Titans are going to be left with is one of the best corners in the NFL.

The man is a football player. He has a sense for the ball, and the speed, size, and athleticism to keep it away from any receiver he wants to. He started his rookie season poorly, but got worlds better as the season went on. The man was born to make plays, and he's going to. He was also unfortunately born to commit dead ball personal fouls, but you take the good with the bad. I'm at least predicting an arrest-free season for Pac Man.


Number of times the Buffalo Bills are mentioned in any sort of a relevant conversation. Over/Under: ½.

The call: Probably under. You know what I have to say about the Buffalo Bills? Nothing. Absolutely nothing. They're just kind of a pointless franchise. Not good enough to take seriously in any conversation that has anything to do with the playoffs, and they're not bad enough to make fun of. They're just there.

The most exciting guy in the franchise might be general manager Marv Levy. How could you not be rooting for Marv Levy? If you're nice to him, he might give you a piece of sugar-free gum and tell you some of his stories from the French/Indian war. I guess Lee Evans and Willis McGahee might qualify as borderline exciting players, but after that, the cupboard is bare. Buffalo's recent draft history is enough to have Marv Levy rolling over in his grave.