Pats Pick, Week Three: Broncos at Pats

Last week I took the Pats, laying six to the Jets. Result: Victory! The Pats covered (barely), winning 24-17. (Which, incidentally, was not far off from my final score prediction of 24-13.)

This week the Pats are favored by 6.5 at home against the Broncos. I'm not hugely confident about this (strange things always seem to happen when the Pats face Mike Shanahan), but I think I have to take the Pats and lay the points once again. Were this on the road, and were this a slightly better Broncos team, I'd fully expect a straight-up Pats loss. But not at Gillette, and not against a Broncos squad that has yet to gel.

I envision a fairly low-scoring affair. The Broncs have mustered a measly 19 points in their first two games combined. I don't see Jake Plummer suddenly putting it together against a Pats defense that has stifled the run and will be improved against the pass.

On the other side of the ball, the Pats' run game has been a force, while the Broncos were weak against the rushing attacks of both the Rams and the Chiefs. I see the Pats pounding it on the ground and owning a huge advantage in time of possession, with some long, dominating drives. The Pats will continue to struggle with their deep and intermediate passing game (I see this clicking, with luck, around week five), but this flaw won't be fatal if mistakes are minimized.

Futile final score prediction: Patriots 20, Broncos 10. Big days for Laurence Moroney and Corey Dillon. Bad day for Jake Plummer. (And those calls for Jay Cutler only get louder.)

Record against the spread so far: 1-0.