Chiefs vs. Rams: Defensive/Special Teams Preview

The Chiefs' defense's bulletproof armor has started to show major signs of wear and tear over the past few weeks. They looked embarassing against the Steelers. They looked strong against San Diego, then collapsed late in the game. Last week, they let a backup quarterback, running back, and right tackle produce 21 points (arguably, seven of those points could be blamed on a careless fumble by Damon Huard that basically placed the Seahawks in the red zone).

The test won't get much easier this week as the Chiefs square off against the St. Louis Rams, a team that features one of the best 1-2 punches of the season in Marc Bulger and Torry Holt. This is a statement game for the Chiefs' defense. Their most recent defensive performance on the road was a fiasco in Pittsburgh. This is a defense that has been credited with feeding off the Arrowhead crowd. The Chiefs' D will need to prove on Sunday that they can perform without the crowd on their back.

When the Rams run the ball
This Rams offense is not Mike Martz's offense. Mad Mike's philosophy was always to pass first, pass second, and maybe squeeze in a run third. Steven Jackson is a terrific power back, which is exactly the type of back that used to give the Chiefs' defense fits. How does Steven Jackson match up against the Chiefs? Is it ever a bad thing for a blogger to raise his hands up in the air and say "I don't know?"

I don't know what to expect from the Chiefs' run defense. I do believe the Chiefs' run defense is pretty solid, though something just makes me feel like they've been untested. The Chiefs obviously stopped LT, which is an extraordinary accomplishment, but really, the Chiefs have for some reason always been terrific against LT. The other teams they have played of late have largely been teams with struggling running games.Much as Iike Herm Edwards' defense, I don't feel like they can dominate against the run as they did last year under Gunther Cunningham. Here's what I do know: the Chiefs' defensive ends have been superb against the run. Tamba Hali has been phenomenal and Jared Allen is finally playing the run with discipline. There aren't really a whole lot of holes in this run defense, actually. Their outside linebackers are tough. Their secondary is very strong in run support, particularly the safeties, who are both very good run stoppers (and below average pass defenders). What concerns me is that the Chiefs' biggest hole is in their interior defense, where their tackles are adequate at best. Steven Jackson is the type of runner that can take big advantage of the middle of the field with power running if the Chiefs don't adequately clog up holes. And by the way, Jackson is too big of a back to let him get to the second level.

The Chiefs better come up big against Steven Jackson, because they can come to expect 20-25 carries from him and the Rams know that they absolutely must establish Steven Jackson if they want to do anything on offense Sunday.

When the Rams pass the ball
Marc Bulger has quietly had a career year. He has been absolutely terrific. I guess that's what happens when you play under an offensive coach that actually understands how a poor running game dooms the passing game. I have always said this about the Rams' pass offense under Mad Mike: when they actually remember to run the ball, Bulger's protection becomes remarkably better. This is why I actually believe the success of the Rams' running game will ultimately determine how well the Rams pass the ball.

The Chiefs will have their hands full with Torry Holt who, I actually believe, is the best receiver in the NFL. For some reason, nobody seems to know who this guy is. What makes the Rams especially dangerous is that Isaac Bruce isn't bad himself. The Chiefs match up as well as any team could against this dynamic duo, with Patrick Surtain and Ty Law. Realistically, though, Holt and Bruce will get their yards. It would be foolish to believe otherwise.

The absolute, critical, most important thing for the Chiefs to do is to get to the quarterback. I expect that Herm Edwards and Gunther Cunningham will gamble quite a bit. Expect them to let loose a lot of blitzers. Expect them to run a lot of stack formations, which they've shied away from a little bit in previous weeks, which will allow them to mix up their blitz packages. The Chiefs know they'll give up yards, which is why they'll likely focus on getting big plays. They've been terrific at forcing fumbles all year long and, remember, one or two big sacks can completely destroy a drive and limit an offense to obvious passing situations. Really, there is no downside to gambling. If they play a basic defense, they'll give up points. If they gamble, they'll give up points but also likely make a lot of big plays too. That's the approach I see the Chiefs taking this Sunday.

Special Teams:
The refs didn't botch the hold, Dustin Colquitt did. The good news is, Colquitt successfully put a good hold down in the next field goal. The problem is, Tynes pushed that field goal right. I hope that the missed field goal was more the result of slight mis-steps rather than losing trust in his holder. Tynes was always at his worst, in my opinion, in the years when he was constantly changing his holder.

Dustin Colquitt continues to be terrific in the punting game, and Dante Hall actually looked like he was moving forward on Sunday's game. Tynes should benefit from kicking in a dome. By the way, the Chiefs' special teams coverage is absolutely lousy. I fear that their poor coverage will give away 1 or 2 games due to allowing a big return in the wrong situation by season's end.

Overall Prediction:
My prediction is for the Rams to score 17 points. Low-scoring, yes, but I actually believe both offenses are going to focus more on running the football and controlling the clock, so I see a lower score for both sides. I think the Chiefs win 21-17. The Rams can't stop the run and I think the Chiefs will, at least to a very small extent.