BCS In Brief: Is Wide Open, Like Wizard's Sleeve

Another in an ongoing series.

Last time on "BCS In Brief": Hello, Louisville! This time: Goodbye, Louisville.

THE SITUATION

Down goes Big East Frazier! Then down goes Big East Ali! The WVU/Louisville game was supposed to be a national semifinal but a little team from Piscataway changed all that. Now? As the man says, is wide open, like wizard's sleeve. One half of the national championship game will be filled with the winner of the Michigan-Ohio State game.

The other? Well... it's complicated now.

WHAT NOW?

We're officially through the looking glass. Texas, by virtue of its early loss, is best placed in the BCS right now but has little opportunity to impress the voters in the weak Big 12. Even though they'll probably be #3 after this weekend's games, they still have to hope for others to lose, especially because voters will face the unappealing prospect of lining up the Longhorns against either Ohio State, a team they already lost to at home, or a Michigan team that beat OSU on the road. If everyone wins out, the projected pecking order:

USC. Already admired by the computers and has three stiff tests against top-20 foes left to impress human pollsters. If the Trojans sweep Oregon, Cal, and Notre Dame they're virtually guaranteed to be #2 in both the human and computer polls.
Arkansas. Likely to be a moot point, but if the Razorbacks beat Tennessee, LSU, and Florida in the SEC championship game they'll deserve a bid. Texas is probably going to end up rooting for Arkansas to remove Florida from contention, but they have a schedule to make up ground with.
Florida. Hardest schedule in the universe now seems overstated, but it's been a tough slog that will end in Atlanta against either Arkansas or Auburn. Will probably have the computer rankings to hop Texas if the polls are as close as they probably will be.
Texas. Will be #3 in the polls mostly by default by Sunday, but has no chance of making a favorable impression on voters before the end of the year. Also, the computers hate them.
Cal. Crushing at the hands of Tennessee seems so long ago. UT dropping the LSU game probably good for them, as it removes the Vols from the title picture, but Cal now needs UT to win out. Opportunity to make a major statement versus USC coming up.
Auburn. Must have Arkansas lose twice to make the SEC championship game and won't move ahead of Texas without the opportunity to beat Florida.
Notre Dame. Long twilight of bad teams and close calls has fixed them towards the bottom of the top ten. One opportunity to move up against USC, but likely to be on the outside looking in unless they're the only plausible opponent. Like Texas, heavy loss to presumptive NC opponent is millstone around their neck.
Michigan or Ohio State. A rematch is exceedingly unlikely but not impossible. Virtually no one other than the losing team at Football Armageddon will want to see this.

You'll notice that Rutgers isn't in there, and for good reason: where do you put Rutgers? The Scarlet Knights are battling 140 years of history and their Minnesota State Screaming Eagles-like ascension from unranked to the top ten is unprecedented in the BCS era. If they win out they'll have gone into Morgantown and beaten WVU, giving them two scalps on a par with virtually anyone in the country. But how will voters react? Will they give Rutgers their due or will they brush them aside for a one-loss team? I don't have any idea.

THANKS FOR PLAYING

Tennessee. With two losses, the Vols are done.

Louisville. We had some laughs, didn't we? But it was hard enough getting the nation's respect when you were undefeated. After losing to Rutgers? Not so much