Florida vs. Florida State Preview

Let's break down the various units to decide where the edge lies in this game.

We're using a 1-5 star rating system. A differential in the favor of one team leads to a zero through four point advantage.

Quarterbacks

UF: * * * *
FSU: * *
Advantage: Florida +2

That the combination of Leak and Tebow vs. FSU's Lee and Weatherford gives Florida a significant bonus should come as no surprise. Weatherford and Lee, FSU's alternating quarterbacks, have been far from impressive this year, save for two games by Lee; one against Maryland and the other against Virginia. Lee is big, athletic, fast on his feet and posesses a powerful arm, but has shown a penchant for firing into the chest of DBs. Both Lee and Weatherford have been turnover-prone this year against mediocre to poor ACC and out of conference defenses. If both QBs can prevent turnovers they'll provide a fighting chance to the Seminoles, but Florida's defense is, by far, the best the 'Noles have played all season.

Running backs

UF: * * *
FSU: *
Advantage: Florida +2

'Lo Booker, FSU's senior back, has been far from impressive this year. His biggest outings came against Rice and Western Michigan. He was 6/-3 yards against Miami, 6/18 yards against Troy, and 10/45 yards against Duke. To date he has 111 carries for 446 yards and 2 TDs. His sophomore teammate, Antone Smith, actually took over the starting RB position, moving Booker to wideout before an injury relegated Smith to the sidelines for the rest of the season. FSU just can't seem to run the ball with any consistency; it's been a major concern of the offensive staff all season long. They average just 103 rushing yards per game, and only half again as much against Top 20 competition.

By contrast, UF's running-back-by-committee attack has been quite productive for the Gators in 2006. The Gators' running attack has averaged 161 yards per game. And DeShawn Wynn has turned into the power back everyone hoped for when he burst onto the scene in his freshman year. He has 114 carries for 622 yards and 5 TDs. Percy Harvin, the talented freshman, has had big gains out of the backfield when he's been healthy. Kestahn Moore has faded into the background (and Marcus Manson may have faded to black) but the real story here is Tim Tebow. Tebow's yard-per-carry average and ability to convert in short yardage situations have made him the statistically superior running back in the Sunshine State, despite the fact that he's truly a quarterback. Given FSU's beat-up, young, and inexperienced defense, these running backs could do Mickey Andrews in. Andrews first goal is always to take away the run against any opponent, and I don't see that happening in this game.


Offensive Line

UF: * * *
FSU: * *
Advantage: Florida +1

Florida's offensive line has been steady if not spectacular this year. Injuries and rotations on and off the line have led to an overall solid effort, but at times the line has allowed the pass rush to get to Chris Leak. Phil Trautwein, Florida's left tackle, has been extremely dependable; center Steve Rissler has stepped into Mike DeGory's shoes with skill and grace, making the right calls on protections and providing a reliable shotgun snap. Drew Miller, right guard, has played the position since an injury to Ronnie Wilson in the preseason, and has played well. Right tackle Carlton Medder looked questionable early in the year but has steadily improved. FSU's line? Let's just put it this way: the 'Noles own fans have nicknamed them "the turnstiles."

Receivers

UF: * * * *
FSU: * * *
Advantage: Florida +1

UF has what may be the best receiving corps in the nation, and the only reason they don't get five stars is their lack of dominating productivity which would prove that descriptor without a doubt. Between Dallas Baker (still listed as probable for today's game), Andre Caldwell, Jemalle Cornelius, Cornelius Ingram, and freshmen Percy Harvin and Jarred Fayson, this is as strong and talented a group as you'll find anywhere. FSU's star receiver this year -- if they have a star anything with a 6-5 record -- is Greg Carr, the tall speedster who plays the Bowden Jump Ball game as well as anyone can. De'Cody Fagg has been a go-to guy for both of FSU's quarterbacks. In fact, three offensive players for FSU top six feet; Carr is 6'6, Fagg is 6'3, and tight end Caz Piurowski is 6'7. They will all have a height advantage over Florida's shortish secondary.

Special Teams

UF: * * * *
FSU: * *
Advantage: Florida +2

Meyer said earlier in the week that UF's punt block and punt return units are playing at a championship level. He's right; with Brandon James finally logging a touchdown return against WCU (he had two more earlier in the season which were negated by bogus penalties) and the punt-and-kick-block-happy Jarvis Moss, Reggie Nelson and Ray McDonald on hand, UF is the last team you want on the other side of the ball when the kicker trots out. What makes FSU particularly vulnerable in this area is the fact that they've had so many injuries on defense that their special teams unit is filled with walk-ons and third-string players. This could be a game-deciding advantage for Florida.

Gary Cismesia, FSU's kicker, started strong this season but has missed three of his last kicks. Florida's Chris Hetland has been flat out awful, however; he is 3-10, and his longest successful kick was a 29-yarder. UF's special teams would easily earn a five-star rating if Hetland was a 70% or better kicker. Right now he's not even close.

Defensive Line

UF: * * * *
FSU: * * *
Advantage: Florida +1

Even without Marcus Thomas this is still an extremely physical, quick line. Jarvis Moss and Derrick "Sackmaster" Harvey have had a great deal of success pressuring the quarterback and stuffing the run, although the sacks have been much harder to come by without big MT. FSU's D-line is actually pretty good, especially at the DE position, but expect them to get worn down by Florida's long, grinding scoring drives. FSU utterly lacks depth across the board on defense, and that factor will be another plus for UF. If I was matching up "run defense" on both sides I'd give the edge to FSU now that Florida is sans MT.

Linebackers

UF: * * * *
FSU: * * * *
Advantage: Even

I'm tempted to give both UF and FSU a three instead of four-star rating, but I can't do that in good conscience considering the output of Earl Everett and Brandon Siler on Florida's side of the ball, plus the fact that Buster Davis was a semifinalist for the Bednarik Award. (He was also a semifinalist for the Lombardi and Butkus awards, and a quarterfinalist for the Lott Trophy.) Geno Hayes, the weakside linebacker, and Lawrence Timmons round out a talented trio of FSU LBs.

I'd love to see Buster Davis try to put a big hit on Tim Tebow. They say the linebacker position is about attitude moreso than size, but it seems hard to imagine the short (5'10") FSU linebacker stopping the 6'3, 240 lb. manchild that is Tim Tebow.

Secondary

UF: * * * *
FSU: * *
Advantage: Florida +2

CB Ryan Smith and safety Reggie Nelson could enjoy huge days against FSU's challenged quarterbacks. On the flip side, Smith and his counterpart on the opposite side of the field, Reggie Lewis, are both going to suffer a serious size mismatch against Greg Carry and De'Cody Fagg. Reggie Nelson earns the fourth star for UF all by himself. "The Eraser" changes the entire nature of the passing game. No sane quarterback will put the ball anywhere near #1, and it only takes one of Nelson's guided-missile smash hits for receivers to get antsy and start looking for the blue jersey before the ball is tucked away. Nelson has probably caused more dropped passes than any safety in the SEC. Too bad there's no stat to account for such a thing.

Adding it up

The only way FSU wins this one is by fortuitous intervention of the intangibles; home crowd, emotion, desire for vindication. However, this Florida team is as mentally tough as we've seen since the 90s and are not given to folding in pressure situations (ahem, please don't mention the 4th quarter of UF vs. Auburn.)

FSU will need turnovers, big plays, the element of surprise, and mistake-free football on both sides of the ball to pull out a win. The Gators simply need to play their normal game.

OVERALL ADVANTAGE: FLORIDA +7
SCORE PREDICTION: UF 28, FSU 10