AFC Playoff Picture, Week 17

The NFL playoffs are just around the corner, and a lot of teams are still chasing that shiny Lombardi Trophy. With that in mind, here's a look at how the AFC playoff race is stacking up at this point in the season...

Seed	Team	Record	Div.	Conf.
1	San Diego Chargers*	13-2	5-1	10-2
2	Baltimore Ravens*	12-3	5-1	9-2
3	Indianapolis Colts*	11-4	3-3	8-3
4	New England Patriots*	11-4	4-2	7-4
5	Denver Broncos	9-6	3-3	8-4
6	New York Jets	9-6	4-2	6-5
--	Cincinnati Bengals	8-7	4-1	6-5
--	Tennessee Titans	8-7	4-2	5-6
--	Jacksonville Jaguars	8-7	2-4	5-6
--	Kansas City Chiefs	8-7	4-2	4-7

* - Clinched division title

TIEBREAKERS:

Indianapolis wins the tiebreaker over New England based on division record.

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There's only one game left in the regular season. Here's how it all breaks down, seed by seed...

1.) San Diego Chargers. They clinched the AFC West title weeks ago and clinched a first-round bye with their last-minute victory in Seattle. They still need one more win or a Baltimore loss to clinch home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.

2.) Baltimore Ravens. They clinched the AFC North title and can clinch a first-round bye with a win or a Colts loss. They need a win plus a San Diego loss to clinch home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.

3.) Indianapolis Colts. They clinched the AFC South weeks ago, but their late-season swoon is starting early this year. In order to get a first-round bye, they need a win plus a Baltimore loss. (I'm so glad picked up Ron Dayne for my fantasy football championship game last week. That cash is going into my Wii fund...)

4.) New England Patriots. They clinched the AFC East last week, but they cannot get a first-round bye, because Baltimore is two games ahead in conference record with one game left. They can climb to the third seed with a win and an Indianapolis loss, but that's as far as they can go at this stage.

5.) Denver Broncos. They can clinch a Wild Card berth with a win or a Kansas City loss. If Denver loses and Kansas City wins, though, all bets are off, because Kansas City has a better division record than Denver, and if three teams finish 9-7, the NFL applies division tiebreakers first to eliminate teams. That would leave Denver on the outside looking in.

6.) New York Jets. Thanks to their Xmas night win in Miami, the Jets control their own destiny. All they have to do is win a home game against the Oakland Raiders, and they're in the playoffs. If the Jets lose, however, they can still get in if A.) the Bengals and Jaguars lose, or B.) the Broncos and Jaguars lose, or C.) the Bengals lose and the Titans wins.

7.) Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals need help, but they make it into the playoffs with A.) a win and a Jets loss, or B.) a win, a Broncos loss and a Chiefs win. Either way, though, the Bengals must win on Sunday. If they lose, they're done.
8.) Tennessee Titans. The Vince Young Show needs even more help to make the playoffs. Tennessee needs a win PLUS a Bengals loss, a Broncos loss and a Chiefs win over Jacksonville. That puts three teams at 9-7 for the last Wild Card spot, and since Kansas City eliminates Denver in the division tiebreaker, Tennessee would get in based on division record. A Jets loss won't help them, since the Jets beat the Titans earlier this year.

9.) Jacksonville Jaguars. Jacksonville loses a tiebreaker to Tennessee based on division record, so they get in with a win over Kansas City PLUS a Jets loss, a Bengals loss and Titans loss. Plus, if the Jags win, Denver clinches one Wild Card spot based on conference record, so the Jags really need those other three games to go their way.

10.) Kansas City Chiefs. If Kansas City beats Jacksonville and Denver loses, Kansas City wins the division tiebreaker. However, because of their poor record against other AFC teams, Kansas City ALSO needs a Bengals loss and a Titans loss. So both Jacksonville and Kansas City need to win AND for three other teams to lose.

There are other scenarios involving ties, but those are so unlikely that I'm not including them here. If I missed any scenarios, I'll update this post later in the week.

THIS WEEK'S KEY GAMES:

1. Arizona at San Diego (Sun., 4:15 PM, FOX): This could be the easiest path to the top seed any team has ever had. Matt Leinart is injured and won't play. LaDainian Tomlinson? Oh, yeah, he's in.
   
   
2. Buffalo at Baltimore (Sun., 1:00 PM, CBS): The Bills were eliminated last week. Do they still have enough left to throw a monkey wrench in Baltimore's bye hopes?
   
   
3. Miami at Indianapolis (Sun., 1:00 PM, CBS): The Dolphins' season ends here, but I'm pretty sure Ronnie Brown really wants to go out with a bang. Can the Colts run defense finally toughen up in time for the postseason?
   
   
4. New England at Tennessee (Sun. 1:00 PM, CBS): New England is in tune-up mode, but Vince Young & Co. are playing for their playoff lives. Will it be enough, or has the Titans' 0-5 start doomed them to wait until next year?
   
   
5. San Francisco at Denver (Sun., 4:15 PM, FOX): The 49ers were eliminated last week, so I'd take my chances with the team that controls its own destiny here.
   
6. Oakland at New York Jets (Sun., 1:00 PM, CBS): It sure looks like the Jets' easy schedule is about to pay some big dividends, doesn't it?
   
   
7. Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (Sun., 1:00 PM, CBS): Don't tell the Steelers that their season ends here. They will attempt to end the Bengals' season in Cincinnati once again. Watch your knees, Carson.
   
   
8. Jacksonville at Kansas City (Sun., 1:00 PM, CBS): This could end up being a consolation game. Jacksonville isn't so hot on the road, and the Chiefs are tough to beat at home. Can the Jags pull off the upset?
   

Click here for the NFC Playoff Picture.