NFC Playoff Picture, Week 17

The NFL playoffs are just around the corner, and a lot of teams are still chasing that shiny Lombardi Trophy. With that in mind, here's a look at how the NFC playoff race is stacking up at this point in the season...

Seed	Team	Record	Div.	Conf.
1	Chicago Bears*	13-2	5-0	11-0
2	New Orleans Saints*	10-5	4-1	9-2
3	Philadelphia Eagles+	9-6	5-1	8-3
4	Seattle Seahawks*	8-7	3-3	6-5
5	Dallas Cowboys+	9-6	2-4	6-5
6	New York Giants	7-8	3-2	6-5
--	Green Bay Packers	7-8	4-1	6-5
--	Carolina Panthers	7-8	4-1	5-6
--	Atlanta Falcons	7-8	3-3	5-6
--	St. Louis Rams	7-8	2-4	5-6

* - Clinched division title.
+ - Clinched playoff berth.

TIEBREAKERS:

New Orleans wins the tiebreaker over Dallas based on head-to-head matchup.

New York wins the tiebreaker over Green Bay based on strength of victory. (.447 to .307)

Green Bay would win a tiebreaker over Carolina based on conference record.

Carolina would win a tiebreaker over Atlanta based on division record and over St. Louis based on head-to-head matchup.

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There's only one game left in the regular season. Here's how it all breaks down, seed by seed...

1.) Chicago Bears. They clinched the NFC North and home field advantage throughout the playoffs a week ago. According to Dick Stockton, they did this "for the first time ever!" Clearly, memory is the first thing to go...

2.) New Orleans Saints. They clinched the NFC South and a first round-bye, as they have wins over both the Eagles and Cowboys. So they're pretty much locked into this position...

3.) Philadelphia Eagles. They're in the playoffs, but they still need either a win or a Cowboys loss to clinch the NFC East title and open the playoffs at home...

4.) Seattle Seahawks. They clinched the NFC West title, but their lousy record pretty much leaves them stuck with the fourth seed. Ah, the spoils of the one-eyed man in the kingdom of the blind...

5.) Dallas Cowboys. Their playoff berth is assured, as they have a two-game lead over everyone else with one left. In order to host their playoff opener, though, they need a win and an Eagles loss. Otherwise, they travel to Seattle for the first round...

6.) New York Giants. Believe it or not, the 7-8 Giants are still pretty much in control of their own destiny. If they win, they will likely get into the playoffs. They clinch a playoff spot with a win and a Green Bay loss. They also get in if all the other 7-8 teams -- Green Bay, Carolina, Atlanta and St. Louis -- lose their games, but they wouldn't feel very good about it.

7.) Green Bay Packers. Yes, Brett Favre gets one more shot at the playoffs with A.) a Packers win, a Giants loss and St. Louis loss, or B.) a Packers win, a Giants loss and either a Panthers win or a Falcons win. However, if both the Giants and Packers win, then "Strength of Victory" (SOV) comes into play. SOV is figured by calculating the combined winning percentage of the opponents a team has beaten, and since Green Bay will have to beat Chicago, their SOV percentage would improve dramatically. However, Green Bay will still need help from other teams they have beaten -- Detroit, Arizona, Miami, Minnesota and San Francisco -- to claim that SOV tiebreaker, and that would require about seven or eight games falling just the right way. If that actually happened, it would be -- and I cannot emphasize this enough -- the biggest suck-out in pro football history. The Packers may still need the Rams to lose for this to work out, though...

7.) Carolina Panthers. They need to win and for New York and Green Bay to lose to make it in as the last Wild Card team -- not ideal, but not entirely hopeless. My fantasy team needed to win and for two other teams to lose to make my league's playoffs. That happened, and I shredded everyone in the playoffs and won the league title. So yes, it can be done...

8.) Atlanta Falcons. They need to win and for New York, Green Bay and Carolina to lose to make it in as the last Wild Card team...

9.) St. Louis Rams. They need to win and for New York, Carolina and Atlanta to lose to make it in as the last Wild Card team. If it comes down to St. Louis and Green Bay, St. Louis wins, because they beat the Packers earlier this year. Nobody in St. Louis is holding their breath for any of this. They're all much too busy celebrating the St. Louis Cardinals' World Series title...

There are other scenarios involving ties, but ties are highly unlikely in the NFL, so I'm not including them here.

THIS WEEK'S KEY GAMES:

1. New York Giants at Washington (Sat., 8:00 PM, NFLN): A Giants win here just about assures them of a playoff berth, but Washington has been playing well of late. Can the 'Skins play the spoiler?
   
   
2. Atlanta at Philadelphia (Sun., 1:00 PM, FOX): A win here means another game next week in Philadelphia. The way the Falcons are playing right now, that seems very possible.
   
   
3. Detroit at Dallas (Sun., 1:00 PM, FOX): And here's why Philadelphia can't slow down this week. Can't wait for that big Roy Williams on Roy Williams matchup.
   
   
4. Carolina at New Orleans (Sun., 1:00 PM, FOX): The Saints have the 2-seed wrapped up, so will they treat this as a tune-up for the playoffs, or will Sean Payton rest his starters and open a door for the Panthers?
   
   
5. Green Bay at Chicago (Sun., 8:15 PM, NBC): Yes, there is a scenario where both the Giants and Packers win and the Packers take the Wild Card spot. Will the Bears give them the satisfaction, or will Lovie Smith continue to play his starters and try to win to go into the playoffs on a high note? (UPDATE: NBC has decided that this one's big enough for Sunday night. Because every game could be Brett Favre's last, don't ya know...)
   
   
6. St. Louis at Minnesota (Sun., 1:00 PM, FOX): I have a feeling this one will ultimately be meaningless, but as long as the Rams have a shot, they'll try to finish with a win and hope for the best.
   

Click here for the AFC Playoff Picture.