Trent Green: Starter in '07, Or Not?

With the Chiefs gasping for playoff breath, the hot topic in Kansas City is now whether Trent Green should be the starting quarterback in '07. Herm Edwards is adamant that he will be. Not everyone else is convinced he should be, though. Even Jon is wondering if Brodie Croyle should be prepared to start next year.

The reasons there are doubters are many. Aside from the game in Cleveland, the Chiefs' offense has not been particularly impressive since Green returned. He has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns, he has fumbled several times under pressure, and he has been badly inaccurate on some wide open throws. Green will also be 37 next season.

But here is why I wouldn't necessarily write Green off just yet. First, a lot of his problems may be simply mechanical. Remember, Green had a long, long layoff, and he could be feeling like he is just coming out of training camp. During the NFL Network's broadcast of the Chiefs-Raiders game, Green's old coach, Dick Vermeil, made what I felt was an outstanding observation. The NFL Network freeze-framed a shot of Green just as he was about to release what turned out to be a pass that fell short of the receiver. Vermeil pointed out that Green has been throwing the ball at a bad angle, causing him to throw passes short of his receivers. Reports have indicated that Green has looked great and been accurate in practice, so you have to wonder if, because of the concussion, Green is still a little slow to react to the pace of the game and doesn't quite think clearly about his mechanics. In fact, Green has been pretty accurate on intermediate passes to the middle of the field, but badly inaccurate on short throws or sideline throws, indicating that maybe Green is hurrying his throws. This would not be unlike a pitcher coming off of major surgery who looks great in bullpen sessions, but once runners get on base, he loses his mechanics.

The other thing is that the Chiefs have actually moved the ball fairly well. Green has done a decent job of marching his team down the field, but once they get into the opponent's territory, they have tended to stall. A lot of that is Green's fault, because he has missed a lot of throws, but a lot of that is also the offensive line and the playcalling. The Chiefs have become very predictable, particularly in or close to the red zone, and they have often come away with either just a field goal, or no points at all.

Additionally, while I do not think the offensive line, in general, has been terrible, they have, for some reason, become awful at picking up blitzes. Perhaps that problem can be attributed to losing Tony Richardson, but it may also have to do with adjusting the scheme so that there is more help for the left and right tackles, who have not been as good as last year's tackles (even Welbourn). Green has been slow to read or react to those blitzes, and he has also been less careful with the ball once the pocket collapses.

Which brings me to the final, but perhaps most important, point. Can Green's problems be traced to the concussion? I think, subtly, a lot of them can, from his mechanics to his reactions to pass rushes. If so, can those concussion-related problems be solved by next year? The problem is that we don't know. If Green had a history of concussions, I would be more comfortable with the notion that we cannot depend on Green next year. But Green doesn't have that kind of history, and as I noted above, the Chiefs have actually been able to move the ball. So do we tell a guy, who had 4 consecutive years of 90+ QB ratings before this year, that he probably won't be the starter next year? Given the free agency and salary cap issues the Chiefs face (namely Tony Gonzalez, and they will want to secure Larry Johnson soon), it doesn't seem practical to keep Green and another quality QB on the roster. On the other hand, Brodie Croyle may not be ready, and Damon Huard is not a lock to return. Add in the fact that the Chiefs may still have to play for now rather than later, given the age of many of their stars, and you have a real quarterback quandary.

These aren't easy questions to answer. Carl Peterson and Herm Edwards are likely to gamble on Green, at whatever expense, but even they probably couldn't swear to you on the Bible that they are 100% confident that Green will return to form. It's just another case of Chiefs' fans not knowing whether to get their hopes up or not.