The Carry That Broke the LJ's Back?

I've been hearing a lot of talk lately about how LJ might break the rushing carries record and how, historically, this is almost a guarantee that LJ will not be effective next year. The statistical basis for this argument: the claim that most RBs who eclipse 380 carries were injured the following year.

Am I really the only one that doesn't see the ridiculousness of this argument? The claim is that RB's like Terrell Davis and Jamal Anderson both suffered major injuries after carrying the ball 380+ times. Newflash: most of the RB's on the list as "overworked" also made the playoffs. TD and Jamal Anderson, in fact, ended up making it all the way to the Super Bowl. When you account for postseason carries, their total number of carries is very close to 500. Barring some extraordinary miracle in which the Chiefs make the playoffs, LJ will not even come remotely close to 400 carries.When you count postseason carries, suddenly, you compile a very long list of workhorse running backs who comprised carry totals equal or beyond what LJ will finish the season with. The steadiest running back of our generation, Emmitt Smith, was asked to carry the ball over 400 times on an almost annual basis, thanks to a Cowboys team that consistently went deep into the playoffs.

Which begs the question: what if the Chargers make the Super Bowl? Will people claim that LT was overworked? Let's think this through: LT has 332 rushes and 54 receptions (386 touches). LJ has 383 carries and 36 receptions (419 touches). That means that, if we factor in averages, LT should finish the season with 354 rushes and 58 receptions (412 touches) and LJ should finish the season with about 408 carries and 39 receptions (447 touches). That means that if the Chargers play two playoff games and the Chiefs play zero, LT should come relatively close to matching LJ's total carries and eclipsing LJ's total touches. Are we about to argue that LT was overworked?

Granted, there is a major paper tiger in this argument. LJ would have been overworked if the Chiefs actually made it to the playoffs. But for those that want to argue that LJ is ripe for injury need to look deeper into the numbers before making ridiculous claims that LJ is ripe for a disappointing 2007. By the end of the season, it's not unreasonable to think there may be 2-4 running backs that well eclipse LJ's total rushes and touches for the season.

It's very convenient that so many people choose to ignore that a postseason carry is just as demanding on the body as a regular season carry.