Can Vandy Break the Sweet 16 Curse?

By any standard, Vanderbilt's 2007 season has been an unqualified success. The 'Dores spent a few weeks inside the Top 25, tied for third in the SEC, beat Kentucky twice, upset #1 Florida, and with their victory over 3rd-seeded Washington State, have beaten 5 ranked opponents. Now Kevin Stallings and his squad find themselves playing for an Elite Eight berth.

The Sweet 16 has been a difficult-to-achieve goal for Vandy over the years. Just reaching this pinnacle is something that is rare enough; the 'Dores have played in the Sweet 16 only five times prior to 2007. And those appearances were few and far between: 1965, 1974, 1988, 1993, and 2004. Their appearance in '07 will be the first time ever that a Vanderbilt team has made it to the field of 16 twice in one decade.

Getting to an Elite Eight has been an even bigger challenge. Vandy has never advanced beyond the field of 16 -- save for 1965, which must be asterisked. That was the year that Vanderbilt won the SEC and were awarded an 'automatic bid' to what was known at the time as the 'Mideast Regional.' In other words, Vanderbilt bypassed the opening round. And of course, the tournament in '65 didn't field 65 teams, either. Not to take anything away from Vanderbilt's great 1965 season, but getting in the Elite 8 then is not what it is now (which is to say it is far more difficult in the present day.)

So Vandy's here. They made it back. Now for the bad news: they'll have to beat 2nd-seeded Georgetown if they want to break the "Sweet 16" tourney curse. That's a tall order for any team. Georgetown appears in many amateur bracketologists' Final Four (including mine.)

With center Roy Hibbert coming in at 7' 2", Georgetown is an absolute load to handle in the paint. And that's where Vandy is weakest: 6' 11" senior center Ted Skuchas is the tallest player on the team, but he plays off the bench for about 16 minutes per game. Junior forward Ross Netlner, at 6' 9", plays the majority of his minutes avoiding 3-second calls and is good for about 9.3 points per game. That's giving up 5 inches right off the bat.

But Vanderbilt lives and dies by its guard play, particularly their perimeter and midrange shots. Until mid-season, that was Georgetown's weakness. After all, the Hoyas lost three big-time perimeter players from last year's team, and it took awhile for Jonathan Wallace, Patrick Ewing Jr., and Jessie Sapp to get the hang of things. But after destroying Michigan, everything seemed to start clicking in the backcourt. Now Georgetown appears strong across the board. Vanderbilt will need their 3-point shots to fall, and for guards Derrick Byars, Dan Cage, and Shan Foster to wreak havoc from beyond the arc as well as with their midrange jumpers.

Can Stallings end the Sweet 16 curse? The odds are against them, but if Vanderbilt brings their best game, they can defeat the Hoyas.