Eastern Conference Finals One To Watch: Ryan Miller

On paper (or in these Intertubes), the Eastern Conference Finals is as close as a playoff series gets. During the regular season, Buffalo and Ottawa were 1-2 in the NHL in goals per game, 13th and 10th, respectively, in goals against per game, and had the exact same goal differential (66), which led the League.

The Senators' offense is a little more top-heavy, while the Sabres have a tad more depth up front. Both teams have capable, puck-moving, shot-blocking and body-rattling defensemen. With so many similarities amongst the teams' skaters, the main point of differentiation between the two clubs may very well be between the pipes.

When I first started writing this preview, I planned to come to the conclusion that Sens' netminder Ray Emery was the real wild card in this series, but now I'm of the mind that it will be the guy at the other end of the ice, Ryan Miller, who will determine whether or not the Sabres advance to play for Lord Stanley's Mug.

Despite his sometimes overly-aggressive and unorthodox play, Emery's numbers have been pretty consistent (even when Emery himself hasn't been). In the regular season, the man they used to call Razor (when they were still allowed to do so) was 33-16-6 with a 2.47 goals against average and a .918 save percentage. In the playoffs, he's bettered those numbers and is 8-2 with a 2.04 GAA and a .919 save percentage. This year against the Sabres, Emery was 5-1-0 with a 2.81 GAA and a .915 save percentage, and over his career, he has a 9-2-0 mark with a 2.94 save percentage and a .910 save percentage against the Slugs. In other words, get Emery three goals and you'll likely win.

Miller, on the other hand, hasn't shown nearly as much consistency. His regular season numbers were 40-16-6 with a disappointing 2.73 GAA and a .911 save percentage, but he has ratcheted those numbers way up for the playoffs, posting an 8-3 record with a 2.07 GAA and a .928 save percentage. Ottawa, however, has had Miller's number of late, as the Lansing native was 1-4-0 with a 4.32 GAA and a .882 save percentage during the 2006-07 regular season facing the Sens (his career numbers versus Ottawa are better, but not great). Is that cause for alarm? No, but it does raise an eyebrow.

And while Emery is coming off a confidence-boosting series win over Martin Brodeur and the Devils (in which he was, without question, the better goalie), Miller comes into this series having arguably been outplayed by his counterpart, Henrik Lundqvist, in the last series. Of course, both goalies are in the Conference Finals now, so how they got here is largely irrelevant. But as neither 'tender has yet faced an offense like the one he'll face in this series -- and given how even the two teams are up front -- it's worth noting that whichever goalie is the better of the two will likely win this series. Since you know what you're going to get with Emery, the question is what will you get from Miller? That's why all the pressure -- including the burden of being the favorite -- is on Miller, and why the series hinges on how he performs in the net.