Texans fans recently celebrated the one year anniversary of former Texans GM Charley Casserly's
overdue firing resignation. He is now an analyst for CBS Sports, and Texans fans might find some inadvertant humor in reading his online bio. (No mention of David Carr or the Phillip Buchanon trade, among other things). I've always thought of Casserly as a Vulcan who says the word "see" a lot. Someone who has little regard for what fans think about things because he's been in the league a long time, see, and understands football logic, see. He also wears his hair a little longish for his age, probably to hide his pointy vulcan ears.
Recently, Casserly provided his analysis of the 2007 draft, without putting any specific grades to it. Interestingly, he begins with these statistics:
I did a 10-year study on the draft to judge the success rate of players selected in each round. I defined a successful player as one who is starting four years after being drafted. Four years gives him a chance to prove himself, and if you are not starting after four years you will probably be replaced on the roster. The results were as follows:I suppose this explains Casserly's thinking about the Phillip Buchanon trade among others. (When he was with the Texans, he referenced these stats on talk radio when talking about trades). If he doesn't put much value in lower picks making it in the league, then trading away the farm is easier. The main problem with that thinking is that for a newish team in the league, lower round picks are more likely to have opportunities and be contributors than with teams with more depth. Some may make the argument that the Texans have done best with their lower round picks.
Round 1 -- 75 percent
Round 2 -- 50 percent
Round 3 -- 30 percent
Round 4 -- 25 percent
Round 5 -- 20 percent
Round 6 -- 9 percent
Round 7 -- 9 percent
Average -- 31 percent
It also means starting guys that maybe shouldn't be NFL starters, and having the W-L record resulting from that. The flipside is that some more successful teams can be more patient with some of their draft picks and may be able to develop them better with established systems and help of veteran players.
I found the comments Casserly made regarding the Dolphins draft also unintentionally funny:
"We all had it wrong here. Just when I got through writing Brady Quinn's name next to Miami, they took Ted Ginn Jr.! They kept this one quiet, maybe too quiet. Sometimes it is a good idea to let the fans know there are some other options when you pick, but the danger in doing that at the ninth pick, is you might tip other teams on who you are interested in."This said by the guy who was the public face for the Texans 2006 draft, perhaps creating the perfect case study on how to mishandle the public relations aspects of a draft.
Do you have anything to add to this? (Please keep it non-profane).
Previously at FanHouse:
Jimmy Johnson's Draft Chart is Obsolete
Jimmy Johnson's Draft Chart Still Guides Some Trades