The Debriefing: The Envelopes David Stern Should Freeze

The Debriefing is a column that runs every weekday at 9:00 a.m. here on FanHouse. It goes deep into one issue and then bounces around to a plethora of smaller ones ... and does it all in a way that will make you feel like the prettiest girl at the cotillion.

Tonight at 8:30 on ESPN, ping-pong balls play a bigger role in your life than they have since you were in college and you spent 14 hours a week bouncing them into Solo cups. Those little ping-pong balls are going to have a great deal to do with the balance of power in the NBA over the next 15 years as Greg Oden and Kevin Durant have landscape-altering potential.

It might not seem like you have a ton at stake tonight, particularly if you're a fan of a decent NBA team (or the New York Knicks). But make no mistake about it, what's going to happen tomorrow night in Secaucus, New Jersey will be historic (as so many things that happen in Secaucus, New Jersey are).

What happens with a draft like this, where there are two surefire studs, is that two general managers get saved from themselves. Two atrocious GMs (they're in the lottery for a reason) get to draft a giant eraser that can make past mistakes disappear. No matter what else is on the roster, with Oden or Durant you almost can't help but have at least a foundation.

If you're any kind of an NBA fan, you've got an interest in the way things go down tonight. If a meteoric talent like Oden or Durant gets stuck in some third-world NBA outpost, we all lose. But there are scenarios from which we'd all benefit, and with that in mind, let's break down the list of teams for whom David Stern should freeze an envelope.

1. Minnesota Timberwolves. They've only got a 5.3% chance to claim the top spot, but this is the dream scenario. Kevin McHale's proven himself to be completely disinterested in assembling any talent around Kevin Garnett, so I'm afraid it's up to God. Allah, Jehovah, the Divine Creator, whatever you want to call Him ... if he doesn't work his magic on the ping-pong balls, Garnett's career is probably going to be wasted.

KG deserves this. He's the most talented and most deprived player on any of the lottery teams. Danny Ainge, Billy King, Michael Jordan, even Oden and Durant themselves ... none of them have more to lose here than Kevin Garnett. If the Wolves are serious about not trading him, then his career has about a 5.3% chance to be salvaged.

2. New Orleans Hornets. As long as we're still in that "Let's help out New Orleans by doing things like cheering for the Saints and Hornets, instead of providing any real financial and structural help to a city that's still floundering" phase, then I think we should all get behind this. Is it too late to make little teal ribbons to show our support?

You've got Chris Paul, David West, and Tyson Chandler already in place, you get a healthy Peja Stojakovic back, and you add Kevin Durant to the mix ... that's a damn spry starting unit. There wouldn't be a long list of NBA rosters that are better, 1 through 5. Unfortunately, since the Hornets were pretty decent last year, there's just a 0.6% chance of this happening.

3. Atlanta Hawks. Maybe it's just me pining for the days of my youth, but isn't the entire league better off when Atlanta's putting a competitive team on the court? Atlanta's an NBA city. They shouldn't be in this big of a mess. The Hawks have two shots at the top spot. One of them is an 11.9% shot, the other a 0.8% shot.

Right now, the Hawks are a collection of swingmen, the byproduct of a history of poor drafting. But you add Oden, and you've got Joe Johnson ... it starts to look like an actual foundation. Really, they'd be only a point guard away from having a decent-looking starting five, and when their point guard depth chart is Speedy Claxton, Royal Ivey, and Tyronn Lue ... they can't help but upgrade that in the off-season, right? What are they going to do, trade for Smush Parker?

4. Boston Celtics. With Paul Pierce, they might figure to be a little higher on this list, but they've also got the front office that I trust the least. I could see Danny Ainge getting the #2 pick, and then trading it to Minnesota for Mike James, Craig Smith, 2 2nd-rounders and the future draft rights to any of Ricky Davis's offspring.

But like Atlanta, Boston should have a good NBA team, and I wouldn't mind seeing Greg Oden in green, looking exactly like Robert Parish (Parish now, not when he was playing). I've never been sold on the character of Paul Pierce as a leader and franchise cornerstone, but when the best running mate he's ever had is Antoine Walker, maybe that's not a fair condemnation. Boston is sitting pretty with a 19.9% chance at victory.

5. Charlotte Bobcats. The poor Bobcats didn't bother to tank, leaving them with just a 1.9% chance to sit in Oden position. Charlotte's pretty barren at the moment, but there are worse places for a superstar to end up. They could pair either Oden or Durant up with Emeka Okafor to make a nasty front line, and still be about $30 million under the cap to bring in another star-caliber player (that someone would probably, unfortunately, be Vince Carter, but beggars can't be choosers).

6. Portland Trailblazers. I like the roster and the young talent they have, but I'm concerned about the lack of veteran leadership there. What, is Zach Randolph going to take Greg Oden under his wing and mentor him? Greg Oden became more mature than Zach Randolph the day he learned his ABCs.

I feel like if the Blazers just took a few years to grow and come together as a team, they'd be fine. They don't need any more young building blocks. But at the same time, how could you say no to adding Durant or Oden, even if you've already got LaMarcus Aldridge and Zach Randolph? The Blazers would be muddled, but ... it wouldn't be a bad kind of muddled to be. They've got a 5.3% chance.

7. Memphis Grizzlies. With a 25% chance, they're in the best shape, but the Grizzlies don't inspire a ton of confidence at the moment. Jerry West is on his way out, there's no head coach in place, and their superstar power forward cries himself to sleep every night.

Maybe adding Oden would put some pep in Pau Gasol's step, but even a Gasol/Oden combo doesn't guarantee Memphis a playoff spot. The Grizz missed the playoffs by 20 games this year. Even if they had Gasol/Oden, with the remaining 60% of the starting line-up being as weak as it is, the Grizzlies might be right back in the lottery next year.

8. Chicago Bulls. I don't know if they'd go for Oden or Durant, but if they somehow ended up with Oden ... this would just be terrible for Ben Wallace's sense of self-worth. And at this point, more young talent in Chicago would just be overkill. They're already set up to be a force in the East for the next 10 years or so ... add Oden into the recipe, and it almost becomes unfair. I'd like to see this result in more good teams, not making one good team better. Fortunately, there's only a 1.9% chance of this happening.

9. Sacramento Kings. The upside with Oden or Durant going to the Kings is that the Maloofs seem committed to putting a good, fun, TNT-friendly team on the floor. The downside is that there's not a ton of talent with which to surround them right now.

Mike Bibby hasn't been a game-changer in a while, and I don't think there's an opening available for Oden on Team Dime. And I think even Ron Artest would tell you that it would be a bad idea for any NBA rookie to spend a lot of time with Ron Artest. Right now, Oden loves Will Smith ... spend two months with Artest, though, and Oden will be shaving gang signs into his beard and recording his own rap album entitled "Bitch, Get Out the Lane." The Kings have a 1.8% shot.

10. Philadelphia 76ers. There's just a 0.7% chance, and I'm glad. I'd like for the 76ers to be able to put a decent team of the court, too, but it's an issue of trust. After the way Billy King handled the career of Allen Iverson, you trust him to handle the career of Greg Oden or Kevin Durant? They had Iverson for ten years, and what were they able to accomplish with him? One trip to the Finals that was almost entirely orchestrated by Larry Brown. And after that, well, they had some memorable battles for the 8-seed in the East.

11. Milwaukee Bucks. Alright, show of hands: how many of you actually care about the Milwaukee Bucks? I'm sorry, Bucks fans, it's nothing personal, but you're just sort of ... there. The Bucks FanHouse hasn't even had anything posted there since April 18th (that's soft of embarrassing, actually), and no one's even noticed.

You have ugly uniforms, Michael Redd, and a small forward who failed to properly register as a sex offender. And despite having Redd and the #1 overall pick in 2005, you only won 28 games this year; hence, the 15.6% chance at winning. I could see Oden or Durant being shipped to Milwaukee and then slowly fading from view.

12. Los Angeles Clippers. It would be easy to look at that roster and say, "There's so much talent there, and it would be a great situation for a young player." But that would be missing the bigger, more gruesome picture. Namely, Donald Sterling.

For the first time in his life, Sterling finally put some money into the team this season ... and the Clippers bottomed out. Who's to say that it's not back to the same old Clippers after this year? Yeah, the Clippers look decent now, but if you take Sterling's entire 26-year period of ownership as a whole ... is this the guy you trust to build a future for Oden or Durant? This just screams "disaster." Thankfully, there's only a 0.5% chance of it happening.

13. Seattle Supersonics. Seattle's an NBA graveyard right now. There's no coach, there's no GM ... there might not even be a city. Detlef Schrempf calls the Sonics organization a "ship without a rudder." The roster's one of the worst in the league, and Rashard Lewis is about to leave a big hole in it. That leaves a 32 year-old Ray Allen, along with ... I don't know, some other people.

If Oden ends up in Seattle, go ahead and mark the date on your calendar when his rookie contract expires, because that's the next occasion you'll have to think of him. If you absolutely hate Greg Oden, root for the Sonics at their 8.8% chance tomorrow night.

Required Viewing

Well this seems like a refined, cultured, perfectly safe activity. We should begin teaching this in our nation's gym classes.

This took place at the Preakness, and it's called the "Running of the Urinals." Apparently, people run along the top of the Porta-Johns while other people throw full cans of beer at them. The highlight is at about the 1:20 mark when the guy takes a can to the head, and then does the slow "I think I'm losing consciousness" fall.

For the Scrapbook

LeBron James, looking like he could use a friend. Damon Jones, this is the only reason you occupy a roster spot. Go tell LeBron a joke.

Sticking and Moving

Yesterday's MVP

Jason Maxiell. At about the 6:00 mark in the 4th quarter last night, Maxiell had a stretch that might have turned the game. On the defensive end, he and Tayshaun Prince doubled LeBron James, and Maxiell ended up blocking LeBron's jumper (Tayshaun probably fouled LeBron, but let's not split hairs).

On the other end, after a terrible Detroit offensive possession, Maxiell skied for an offensive rebound, which led directly to a key Chauncey Billups three-ball. And again, back down on the defensive end, Maxiell forced Zydunras Ilgauskus out of a jumper (Z's jumpers had been killing the Pistons; Ilgauskus was one more jumper away from occupying this spot himself) and into a tougher, one-handed shot that missed.

Then, Maxiell ate a baby. Whole, and without chewing.

Yesterday's Sad Sack

LeBron James. It's not that LeBron played all that poorly ... he just never really tried to play that great. Ignoring the last possession, at no point before that did LeBron ever try to put his mark on the game.

The Pistons always had him shadowed when he did have the ball ... but the rest of the Cavs didn't seem particularly determined to feed LeBron, and LeBron didn't seem particularly determined to come get the ball, either.

Come on, LeBron ... the game is right there for you, on the road in the Eastern Conference Finals, and there's not ever a stretch where you even try to take over? Six second half shots? Is that a joke?

The Evening's Agenda

7:00, FX. Movie. Man on Fire.
7:30, ESPN2. WNBA Basketball. Sacramento Monarchs @ Washington Mystics.
8:30, ESPN. 2007 NBA Draft Lottery.
9:00, ESPN. NBA Playoffs. Utah Jazz @ San Antonio Spurs.
9:00, VS. NHL Hockey. Detroit Red Wings @ Anaheim Ducks.