Saber Bomb: Steals Are Rarely a Good Idea

Saber Bombs are MLB FanHouse's introduction to sabermetrics, those new and sometimes unwieldy metrics that are changing the way we think about baseball. Each post highlights a specific stat, player, team or media member either embodying that understanding, or missing the boat completely.

One of the more common debates among baseball heads recently is the value of the steal. Is it worth potentially sacrificing an out, only one of 27 allowed for an entire game, just to advance a runner a one-fourth of the way closer to home? Old-school baseball tradition says yes; lots of recent research says no.

In fact, among sabermatricians, it is now widely accepted that the cost of a stolen base is greater than the benefit to scoring. So many runners are thrown out -- and many teams that feel the need to steal are not offensive powers anyway -- that scoring has no positive correlation with stolen bases, even if successful. What's worse, scoring decreases by .845 runs for every failed stolen base. That's, um, not good.

Of course, this doesn't prevent coaches from sending runners to "put pressure" on the defense. It's a bit sad, of course, that so few major league teams realize the problems with steal attempts, and still overpay for speed when that speed is far less valuable than power hitting and on-base percentage. Not all teams are punching in the dark; the A's pioneered this model, and the Red Sox are currently sprinting away from their division with it.

Still, it continues to warrant a mention. Anytime your friends scream at the TV, clamoring for a stolen base, remind them: it ain't all it's cracked up to be. Then lay out the reasons, and you will seem very smart. They -- and plenty of MLB managers -- will seem very stupid. And then you will smile.

(HT for some info: The fantastic Baseball Analysts)