Big Ten Football Preview '07: Michigan

Michigan, O Michigan, ye of the constant accusations of underachievement despite possessing the best record in college football over the past decade. My alma mater. My blog niche. My harsh, harsh mistress. Please don't suck this year.

WHY THEY'LL WIN

This part is easy: four potential All-Americans (Chad Henne, Mario Manningham, Jake Long, and Mike Hart) return on the offensive side of the ball. All save Hart are holy locks for the first round next year, assuming Manningham decides to enter early, and that's not even a full accounting of the myriad riches on the offense. There is also lanky emerging star Adrian Arrington, a version of Jason Avant with some extra deep threat attached, senior left guard Adam Kraus, a lock to be all-conference, and young offensive linemen Justin Boren and Steve Schilling, guaranteed to be stars sooner or later. There are even rumblings that tight end Carson Butler, kicked off the team for an assault he was later acquitted of, may return, which would shore up the one weakness on offense: jumbo blocker types at FB and TE.

Most of that killer defense (save the last two games, yes) is gone, but guided missile Shawn Crable returns for his senior year along with fireplug defensive tackle Terrance Taylor. With Taylor on the defensive line will be two five-star recruits at defensive end, Tim Jamison and Brandon Graham (a man who Mike Hart described as "Lamarr Woodley but faster"), and defensive tackle Will Johnson, who played extensively and well last year. Sometimes Michigan even lifted leviathan Alan Branch for Johnson on third and short. Like, whoah. It won't be last year's thumping death machine, but it will probably be the best line in the conference anyway.

On special teams, there is Zoltan the Inconceivable, a punter who is awesome and named Zoltan Mesko. He will punt opponents to death.

WHY THEY'LL LOSE

Michigan's achilles heel in 2006 was a secondary incapable of covering anyone in a USC or OSU jersey, and that was with new Bengal Leon Hall playing at an All-American level. While no one on the schedule this year looks capable of orchestrating the precision demolition Troy Smith did -- the best QB on it is... Anthony Morelli? -- in the Biggest And Awesomest Game Of All Time For Like Two Months, vulnerable is vulnerable. And they's vulnerable.

Meanwhile, uncertainty reigns in the linebacking corps. Erstwhile starter Chris Graham hasn't impressed anyone in three years on the weakside; middle linebacker is being fought over by cipher Johnny Thompson, JUCO transfer Austin Panter, and redshirt freshman Obi Ezeh. None have established themselves on the field, and hooooo boy do they have some shoes to fill. David Harris was a bad man the last two years; in his absence things get dicey.

Also, underrated kicker Garrett Rivas graduates. He was a squat, fat little man but the man could kick some oblong ball. He was 80% for his career. The year before Rivas was a three-way free-for-all of incompetence; this year Michigan has a redshirt freshman on scholarship, Bryan Wright, but he didn't show well in the spring game. Always assume collegiate kickers will suck until proven otherwise unless they're from Iowa or Ohio State.

And it must be said: historically, Michigan has never taken advantage of its killer offenses as much as they have its killer defenses. Last year's 11-2 and the 12-0 '97 national championship run were built on the backs of slavering D; Michigan's best offenses of the Carr era, piloted by Tom Brady in '99 and John Navarre in '03, were both excellent teams that went to the BCS but not national championship contenders. Lloyd Carr has a tendency to coach like he has a superior run game and stout defense no matter what the facts on the ground are. This year Michigan looks like they'll go at least one for two, but unless Ron English pulls a rabbit out of his hat there are the makings of at least one mindbendingly frustrating loss here.

HOW TO BEAT THEM

It's pretty stupid to sit here and say "get pressure on the quarterback" as if there's any quarterback in the world who just loves getting blindsided by angry walls of meat, but, um... get pressure on the quarterback. Michigan quarterbacking is Michigan quarterbacking: intelligent, rifle-armed, laser-precise, and graceful as a water buffalo. Chad Henne is the latest in a long line of Wolverine robo-QBs and, though he's shown the occasional sign he's getting better at this, when he starts moving around the pocket bad things happen, usually sacks. Caveat: pocket presence is always the last thing to develop, so maybe this will be less true as he enters his fourth year as starter.

And while the defensive line figures to be a painless magazine change, there is no suitable replacement for NFL first rounder Leon Hall in the secondary. So opponents are advised to exploit Morgan Trent and Johnny Sears, especially early in the season when uber-recruit Donovan Warren is still finding his collegiate sea legs. The only dents made against the Michigan defense a year ago came when Ohio State and USC abandoned the idea of running (except, in OSU's case, for the occasional backbreaker) in favor of lighting up the befuddled Michigan secondary like it was a pinball machine. Heck, even the bizarre Ball State comeback no one saw because it was on ESPNU was spurred by a long touchdown given up by Sears. When the MAC is burning you crispy, things are not going well for your career.

And Lloyd Carr takes an unnecessary amount of heat for a coach at the helm of the nation's winningest program over the last decade (seriously... look it up), but there is something true in that heat. If you lull Michigan into overconfidence, you can end up taking a game against them into the fourth quarter, watch their claws retract as they deploy the infamous "nonscoring offense" and pip a victory from them late.

HOW TO LOSE TO THEM

There are a multitude of ways, but the best one is probably to bite on a Mario Manningham double move. Chad Henne's deep ball is a thing of parabolic beauty, the best part of his game, and Manningham provides him with a silky deep threat with an incredible knack for selling cornerbacks a bill of goods and loping towards the endzone with no one anywhere near him. You might get away with it once, even a few times if you're fortunate enough to get pressure at the critical moment, but sooner or later you're going to feel the wrath.

If you're bracketing Manningham with a safety, though, it becomes difficult to contain the other guy Michigan deploys with frequency. By doing so you let Mike Hart grind you into dust. He's never going to be a breakaway threat, but Hart has few peers when it comes to picking through the morass at the line of scrimmage and plowing for yards after contact. He is tiny; he is relentless; he is invariably loved by Michigan fans of all stripes.

On offense, the best way to lose is run your ground pounders into the maw of despair. Don't care that Branch and Woodley and Harris are gone; don't care. If you take a back that can plausibly be described as "workmanlike" or "north-south" or "hoss" and attempt to run him between the tackles time and again, this Michigan defense is going to toss your whale back in the water with a two yard loss. With an irresponsible Tim Jamison and youthful Brandon Graham on the edge plus two outside linebackers not noted for their run prowess, a guy who can threaten the corner can have success. Someone like, say, PJ Hill is not likely to find anything but the rear ends of his offensive linemen.

PROGNOSIS

The Big Ten favorite and for good reason, as the offense should move virtually at will if permitted to by the coaches. Only dedicated Michigan observers have noticed this, but in recent years the Wolverines have become more aggressive in forth-down situations and in their general playcalling when quarterback experience and offensive line protection have allowed it. Historically, Michigan has let their senior quarterbacks rip it.

The defense won't be up to last year's standard but neither should it descend to the flailings of 2005; there really is a lot of talent in the front seven even if much of it is unproven. The secondary... well. If Donovan Warren comes in and makes a Woodson-like impact, it could hold together. But that's not likely.

This is one of 2007's A-list national championship contenders, but it's not a team good enough to project an undefeated season for. 10-2 or 11-1 is highly probable -- remember that the Wolverines, unlike many teams, have two losable nonconference games -- if it's the latter and the year ends with consecutive wins over Wisconsin and Ohio State, there's a good chance Michigan scrapes into the MNC game over the rest of the one loss contenders, where they will be dismantled by USC. Some things never change.