Big Ten Football Preview '07: Ohio State

Ohio State. Nemesis. Implacable foe. In recent years, deliverer of exclusively woe and pain. How I hate thee. Now for a totally unbiased and fair preview!

WHY THEY'LL WIN

Jim Tressel has built what's perhaps the nation's finest program in his six years as Ohio State's head coach. Flip one result -- last year's Not Fiesta shellacking -- and he would have two national championships and four BCS wins in a brief half-dozen years (though one of the latter was a freebie against Notre Dame) plus, of course, those five wins over Michigan. As it is he's got one MNC, three BCS wins, five Michigan victories, and a partridge in a pear tree. As we speak thousands of tiny busts of the man are being carved out of crushed Bud Light cans across the state of Ohio, and it's hard to dispute anything about that tableau except for some personal grooming habits and a profusion of "I'm With Stupid" t-shirts.*

So, yeah, they'll win because that's what Ohio State does of late. More specifically, they'll win because they have a ton of starters back from a defense that was statistically amongst the nation's best despite two rough outings to end the year, including freakish man-beast defensive end Vernon Gholston, by FanHouse's accounting the fifth best player in the conference, and jam artist corner Malcolm Jenkins. Oh, and there's that Laurinaitis guy. Despite being the #1 most overrated player in the Big Ten, he's not exactly bad.

Bells peal across the Midwest at the departure of Troy Smith and his Heisman-winning ways, but a reconstituted offense will lean heavily on a power running game spearheaded by enormous, fast Chris "Beanie" Wells. You may be thinking that anyone nicknamed "Beanie" can't be that intimidating. You would be wrong. And though the offensive line was sieve-o-licious against Florida, most of its key actors return chastened and ready to plow.

There's also the matter of the schedule. Washington, even on the road, is hardly a Texas-level challenge these days, and the rest of the nonconference schedule is tomato cans. Even a thoroughly mediocre Ohio State team isn't likely to end up worse than 9-3.

*(Sorry. Hey, I said OSU may be the finest program in America. I have to get in some shots or my head will explode.)

WHY THEY'LL LOSE

We just mentioned this, but it's worth mentioning again: Troy Smith is dead, and with him the rest of Ohio State's skill position starters save irrelevant tight end Rory Nichol. (Ohio State never throws to the tight end.) Though the Buckeyes can plug the uber-touted Wells into the slot vacated by Pittman and replace the Ginn-Gonzalez duo with Brian Hartline and Brian Robiskie, one area in which Ohio State has recruited poorly is at quarterback. There are three candidates to replace Smith, but one is a dual-threat redshirt freshman who threw three ugly interceptions in the OSU spring game, the second is a combine guy with a big arm and no indication he knows how to play football. These are Antonio Henton and Robbie Schoenhoft, respectively.

The third man and the projected starter is redshirt junior Todd Boeckman, who's been around forever (as a grayshirt, he's actually been on the Ohio State campus for four years already; he remembers when Greg Oden was in his 30s) and fits into the Craig Krenzel mode of functional, uninspiring Ohio State quarterbacks. You will note that Krenzel won a national championship, but only with the aid of a prodigiously badass defense and more luck than Chris Moneymaker*, things Boeckman may or may not have. In any case, it's a major comedown from Smith, Destroyer of Worlds. Especially mine.

Meanwhile, on defense there are few departures but those that are gone might be especially relevant, as they are defensive tackles Quinn Pitcock and David Patterson. Though Pitcock's TFL and sack totals garnered most of the attention, Patterson was quietly excellent beside him. Their replacements do not project well. None saw any time a year ago; projected starter Doug Worthington is 6'7" and was last listed at a relatively slight 274 pounds. People of that dimension do not do well in the interior trenches, where leverage is everything. Todd Denlinger might be okay next to him, but "might be okay" is not something to hang hats on.

It's also worth pointing out that a year after being significantly below par in turnover margin, Ohio State leapt to 13th in the country on the strength of a preposterous 21 interceptions, many of them delivered into the waiting hands of one James Laurinaitis. That number will come down. Smith, meanwhile, threw but six, a number whoever the starter is will in all probability at least double. Ohio State was -6 on fumble recoveries, which mitigates it somewhat... except the main sources of fumbles are loose-limbed tailbacks and inexperienced quarterbacks. The Buckeyes have both. (Wells fumbled like he was auditioning to be Kevin Grady last year.) A disastrous reversal in turnover margin could be in the offing, and with it a dramatic turn in fortunes.

*(or, more properly, Robert Varkyoni. [/pokernerd])

HOW TO BEAT THEM

Ram it down their throats. You can dispute this all you want, but my operative theory on the OSU linebackers is that they are not good at getting off blocks, and my operative theory on the OSU defensive tackles is that they won't be good, period. This could all be very, very wrong -- I really hate the idea of picking the Ohio State run defense to suck -- but I watched a lot of them last year and noticed that there was hardly any rotation whatsoever on the interior line beyond the deployment of Joel Penton (also gone), an unusual situation in an era when three to five defensive tackles are standard. Plus, the above-mentioned Worthington's dimensions just seem wrong for a defensive tackle.

The other thing you can do is get Malcolm Jenkins to bite. He's a good corner, don't get me wrong, but sometimes he gets excessively bump-happy. If you've got a guy who can shuck him and shimmy past him, it's possible to ding him for a big play.

On the other side of the ball, Ohio State figures to revert to its pre-Smith days when it was perfectly happy to grind out 17 points as it watched its defense club you to death; to prevent this you should sell out to get them in third and long. I don't think Boeckman is going to complete many third and sixteen darts like Troy Smith did on Ohio State's opening drive of the Michigan game, especially without the services of Ginn and Gonzalez. Neither Brian has the sort of instant death Ginn speed that makes safeties quake; the best way to defense this version of Ohio State will be to roll a safety up and take your chances with the deep ball; third and short == you lose.

And if all else fails, just get them cocky and give them a fifty-one day layoff in which they forget how to block. This may be of limited application, granted.

HOW TO LOSE TO THEM

Get fancy. Ohio State doesn't go for that misdirection junk. They don't really bite on play action. They're tough to screw up with a screen. They read their keys, stay in their lanes, and don't blow assignments. I would kill for even one of their crappiest safeties from the last decade. This is the benefit of hiring a guy who wins at I-AA: you know it's not so much the recruiting that gets it done.

I don't know... show up? I'm struggling to come up with another fashion to lose to Ohio State this particular year, but they've got Michigan's number, that's for sure, and everyone else's except for maybe (and oddly) Wisconsin's. Clearly allowing Chris Wells to eat your lunch will equal loss, as will tossing interceptions and fumbling, but I am really loathe to say anything as banal as "don't turn the ball over!" like anyone reading this hasn't heard that bit of conventional wisdom during every game they've ever watched. Suffice it to say that I'm not even mad at Tressel anymore. Sure, I sort of think he looks like a child molester, but he's obviously one of the best coaches in the country and he's not even partial to the skeeze -- Clarett excepted -- like Cooper was. So what am I left with? Charlie Weis jokes. Yes. We still have those.

Punt on fourth and four from their 34 with a two-point lead and like three minutes left. Not that I'm bitter, bitter, bitter, bitter or anything.

PROGNOSIS

Not even the dimmest outlook on this edition of the Buckeyes can project a loss to Washington, so 4-0 out of the gate is guaranteed. The conference schedule is backloaded, with Michigan, Wisconsin, and Penn State all at the tail end, so an 8-0 start with the ensuing hype about Buckeye Dynasty is not out of the question. However, once the rough-and-tumble defenses of the Badgers, Nittany Lions, and (maybe?) Wolverines roll into town Ohio State should -- should -- come up short twice. Throw in maybe one game where the retro offense gets stuffed like whoah -- Illinois? -- and 9-3 looks like a reasonable outcome, with 10-2 and 11-1 possibilities. Some rebuilding year, this.