SEC Football Preview '07: LSU

Now we're cooking with gas. We've finally gotten through the unpleasantness of the Mississippi teams, Vanderbilt's automatic NoBowl4U, and the mild discomfort of assigning the mediocre label to Kentucky and South Carolina. Now we move onto the contenders. And man-oh-man, do we have some kick-ass teams ready to explode in the SEC. Our first contender, and undoubtedly the best team overall, is LSU.

WHY THEY'LL WIN

Matt Flynn. Jacob Hester. Early Doucet. Glenn Dorsey. That covers the running, throwing, catching, and defending part. Those are this year's impact players. Despite losing 9 starters, including #1 overall draft pick Jamarcus Russell, two O-linemen, two WRs and both safeties, LSU is poised to be the most talented team in the conference for the second year running.

Yeah, they're talented, all right. LSU is so freakin' talented it's positively stunning. Best in the SEC? Shoot, this might be the deepest, most athletic and most talented team in the nation, except for top-ranked USC, and even that's debatable.

If the SEC could be won by talent alone, we could forego the 2007 season and hand the conference title trophy to the Tigers and not bother playing any games. However, LSU bore that mantle last year, and not only did they fail to win the SEC, they finished third in their division.

The message? It takes more than talent; but talent will get you a long way.

WHY THEY'LL LOSE

This is Year 3 of the Big White Hat era in Baton Rouge. At times Les Miles has redefined 'annoying,' managing to irritate almost everyone in the country -- including SEC fans! -- with his muck-brained commentary. And Miles hasn't yet become beloved by his fans, although he's gaining ground. In last year's sugar bowl, LSU grabbed Notre Dame by the scruff of the neck, tied them to the goalposts, and proceeded to beat on them with ten foot sections of pressure-treated four-by-fours. (Well, we mean that in a figurative way, of course.)

When you smash the living tar out of your opponent in a BCS bowl game, your fans tend to appreciate that, and your offseason tends to progress more smoothly. Miles' approval ratings are at an all-time high in Tiger Nation, but all it takes is one unscheduled loss for him to lose whatever goodwill he's built up.

Here's where we're going with this. Les Miles, the gameday coach? The jury's still out on that guy. Les Miles the recruiter passes muster. Les Miles the coach who inherited a ridiculously talented team is just fine. Les Miles the coach who is 22-4 in the SEC is also coming up roses.

But his teams in that time didn't always appear to be able to regain their composure in hostile environments. Against Auburn and Florida in 2006, the Bayou Bengals seemed easily rattled and just a touch 'soft.' And of course Miles' introduction to SEC play didn't earn him a lot of points with fans in 2005, when he lost to Tennessee in Death Valley after enjoying a second half lead over the Vols. That early loss really set the tone for the faction of malcontent fans that don't now and never will believe that Les Miles is an LSU-quality head coach.

But if you're a numbers and records guy, Miles is a winner, and it'd be foolish to doubt the Tigers in 2007. There's a flip side to this coin, however; the pressure on Miles to produce not just an SEC title but a crystal football is enormous. Anything short of that goal will put Miles squarely on the hot seat, as insane as that sounds.

HOW TO BEAT THEM

Um... pray? LSU is not only the best team in the SEC this season, they also have a great schedule which brings the meatiest morsels of tiger meat directly to Death Valley. The Tigers get Virginia Tech, Auburn, Florida, South Carolina, and Arkansas at home, making their toughest road game @ Alabama on November 3rd. Although we're looking for big things from the Tide now that Nick Saban's the new sheriff in town, it'll be a tall order for Bama to beat the Tigers this year, even in Tuscaloosa.

Anyway, to beat LSU you'll also need to beat their crowd. And short of the dreaded Swamp in Gainesville, which is appropriately ranked the #1 toughest stadium in NCAA '08, a night game in Baton Rouge is one of the worst possible scenarios you can face in the SEC.

But if you make it past all of that, your best chance is to establish a running game and win the time of possession battle against the Tigers. Your defense will have to enjoy copious amounts of rest between possessions because they'll need to use every ounce of their ability to get the occasional stop. After you've sucked the linebackers in and draw a cornerback blitz or two, loft a couple of long balls over their heads and test their two new starting safeties.

The good short and intermediate passing game, a strong rushing attack, and winning turnover margin will all be prerequisites just to have a chance to beat the Tigers in 2007. This will be one tough squad to beat.

HOW TO LOSE TO THEM

Jimbo Fisher is now dadgumming it up with Bobby Bowden in Tallahassee, and new OC Gary Crowton's expected to install a version of the increasingly popular spread/option offense. Start napping on defense with Matt Flynn sailing passes to his cadre of NFL receivers, and you'll suffer the first time LSU runs an option play.

In truth, losing to the Tigers will be fairly easy. Expect to get manhandled at the line of scrimmage, both offensively and defensively. And unless you have equally speedy CBs and WRs, don't expect to have an edge in man-to-man scenarios on either side of the ball. The Tigers will cause many a sleepless night for the SEC's offensive and defensive coordinators.

PROGNOSIS

LSU is the pre-season cream of the crop in the SEC. While the odds of going undefeated are slim -- as is always the case in the dirty south -- LSU could show up in Atlanta with a single loss and title hopes.

Much hinges on the senior campaign of Early Doucet, now LSU's #1 wide receiver. Doucet has been a 2nd/3rd option for Jamarcus Russell in the past, but he now must become Matt Flynn's go-to guy. If he can become a possession receiver for the Tigers, this offense won't skip a beat.

This will be a crucible of sorts for Les Miles and his coaching staff. He has the schedule, he has the talent, and he probably has a quarterback who can guide LSU to a national championship. If Miles can mold his team into a fast, hard, and singly-minded being, there's no limit to what LSU can accomplish in 2007.

And if Miles fails to do that, there'll be no end to Tiger Nation's off-season grumbling and cursing off 'that idiot head coach.'