Pac Ten Football Preview '07: Oregon State

The biggest thing to contend with in Oregon State is the ground game. Yvenson Bernard is the top returning running back in the conference this year with over 1,300 rushing yards and 12 scores. But it's more than just Bernard's elusiveness, where he can make something out of nothing. As good as Bernard has been, it's the offensive line that does the heavy lifting, raising the entire offense to another level.

How good is the line? Consider that Oregon State was the only program last year to have all five starters earn all-conference honors, either first-team, second team or honorable mention! That unit returns four of those five starters in '07, and even 8 out of 10 in the two-deep's from last year. Their interior of center Kyle DeVan and guards Roy Schuening and Jeremy Perry are talented and tough. No team in the conference has the type of maulers like OSU, and as the 2-point conversion play in their win over Missouri showed, they seem to be able to move the pile at will. Whether it's Bernard or backup RB Clinton Polk, or whoever prevails in camp as the starting QB, the entire offense will succeed because of the big uglies up front.

The wide receivers have a lot of talent, led by the headline-making Sammie Stroughter. Of course, as of this writing, Stroughter is away from the team with what has been described as personal issues, and unfortunately there isn't anything more that is known about a potential return. Rumors and speculation abound at this point. Described as being an upbeat kid with an infectious personality, he's one of the most popular players on the football team. Oh, and he's really good. As in the leading receiver back in '07 in the entire conference with 74 catches, as well as being the #2 return man behind only DeSean Jackson at Cal. You can't sugar coat the obvious - losing Stroughter would be a huge blow to the football team. Behind Strougther, the starters would be Brandon Powers and Anthony Brown (formerly Wheat-Brown). While they are a nice duo as a compliment to a guy like Stroughter, to put it in perspective, Powers and Brown combined for 60 catches last year, still 14 less than the number Stroughter turned in. WR Chris Johnson is a guy that would likely move up the depth chart as the #3 guy should Stroughter not return.

The OSU defense looks to be set for a big season. Nine of the top 11 tacklers from 2006 return, including the starting linebacker corps of Joey LaRocque, Alan Darlin and Derrick Doggett. Outside LB LaRocque is the top returning tackler in the Pac-10 from last year with 98, while Doggett anchored the other side with 87 last year, plus and he got after the passer with five sacks. Darlin did a commendable job in the middle with 72 tackles and 12 tackles for loss. The secondary did lose one potential starter in Coye Francies, who was arrested on a firearm charge and has been suspended indefinitely from the team, but they still look good with Keenan Lewis, Gerald Lawson, and Brandon Hughes, all guys that have started at corner at one time or another.

Up front, the d-line looks to be strong as well, led by four senior starters. DE's Jeff Van Orsow and Dorian Smith are probably the two best up front. Van Orsow was the hero of the USC upset a year ago, tipping a 2-point conversion attempt by John David Booty with seconds remaining to clinch the win. He was honorable mention all-conference last year with 10 tackles for loss. Smith surprised a lot of people with a team-high nine sacks last year, tops on the team and the #2 pass-rusher in the conference coming back in '07. The tackles are Gerald Lee and Curtis Coker, both active run-stoppers who are good at plugging the middle and eating up some space, freeing up the linebackers to make plays.

Might as well start with the most important position on the field: QB. Matt Moore was maligned in the first half of 2006, as the Beavs' were blown out at Boise State (42-14) and at home vs. Cal (41-13). Fans were calling for a QB change and things looked rough after the team started out 2-3 through the first five games. But then Moore turned it around, the offensive line came together, and all of a sudden the Beavers finished the season as the hottest team in the conference, rallying to go 8-1 over their last nine games. And Moore was a big part of that turnaround, eliminating the big mistakes that got the team in tough situations. Moore threw only seven int's in 2006, a huge improvement compared to a whopping 19 picks in 2005. But Moore is now gone, and the QB situation looks murky at best.

Sean Canfield was hyped as the next big-time QB, and was the guy fans were calling for when Moore struggled so mightily early in 2006. The big lefty Canfield has all the tools, with size (6-4, 225) and a powerful arm. But in the spring and now into fall camp, Canfield just hasn't fully landed the starting job. He's been, to be kind, inconsistent in practices and scrimmages, and it's a concern for head coach Mike Riley. If recent history is any indication, unless your name is Matt Leinart, QB's in their first year as a starter in the Pac-10 have had a rough time winning games and avoiding the costly turnovers. JC transfer Lyle Moevao is competing for the job with Canfield, and while insiders say that it's still going to be Canfield, Moevao has been a pleasant surprise by making this race a tight one right down to the wire. Moevao doesn't have the same tools as Canfield, standing 5-11, but has a linebackers build at 230 lbs. However the QB race shakes out, the situation appears shaky at this point and could be the biggest downfall for the Beavers in '07.

Oregon State's schedule looks tough as well. Every strength of schedule rating system has them in the top-10 most difficult for 2007, and tough road games include at ASU, at Cal, at Oregon and the biggie, at USC in a major revenge angle for the Trojans. An early-season Thursday night game at Cincinnati might be harder than it looks on paper as they try to break in the new QB, and trip to WSU in November, before a bye week leading up to their rivalry game at Oregon, could also be a trap.

1) Stop the run - With the new QB about to get a baptism by fire, and potentially without star WR Sammie Stroughter, opposing defenses are likely going to put eight or even nine in the box and attack the line of scrimmage. If you put a young QB in obvious passing situations, you have the Beaver offense right where you want it.

2) Don't get behind early - Oregon State's strength will be running the ball in 2007. If you fall behind and they are able to use that outstanding offensive line against you, it could be a long, frustrating day. But if you get up on them early and make the Beavers abandon their game plan to play catch-up, the passing game might not be good enough to come back.

3) Take care of the football - Duh. You can say that about every opponent, every week of the year, and while it's an overused cliche', it's also true - teams that have a negative in turnover margin usually lose, while teams that are in the positive side of the ledger usually win. Last year the Beavers were plus-8 in turnover margin, leading to a 10-win season. In 2005, it was a lousy minus-14, which led to a losing season. If you go back another year, it's the same thing - they were plus-3 in turnover margin, and they had a winning season. Don't turn the ball over, force the young QB into mistakes, and you should prevail over Oregon State.

1) Get manhandled up front - Outside of USC and maybe UCLA, Oregon State should have an advantage with their offensive line in every other game in 2007. It's easy to sit here and say "if you stop the run, you'll beat them". It's quite another to go out and do it against such an experienced, talented group that the Beavers return this season.

2) Fall asleep in the secondary - While there is a new QB and the potential loss of one of the biggest play WR's in the conference, you can't totally under-estimate OSU's passing game. Canfield did play in small stretches last year, so it's not like he's never been on the field before. Plus there is a reason he's gotten some hype, and the kid does have a great arm. If Moevao wins the QB derby, he also brings a toughness element to the position that other players respect and rally around. And the duo of Powers and Brown at WR is still a pretty good fall-back option, even if Stroughter isn't available.

3) Don't protect your QB - Oregon State gets after the passer better than any team in the Pac-10. They led the conference in sacks in '06 with 47, and the returning players for this year had 41 of those 47. Further, it's not just the D-line to watch out for, but the linebackers and even the safeties get into the act. Last year 15 different players had at least one sack, and Riley loves to attack opposing offenses by blitzing from every conceviable angle.

Clearly OSU has talent. 16 starters are back from last year, plus the formidable offensive line, a stud running back and an active, physical, experienced defense all looking good for 2007. Even Alexis Serna, the all-conference kicker and Groza award candidate, is back, and should the Beavers play some tight games early in the year while keeping the offense conservative with a rookie QB, Serna is going to be a huge asset.

But the likely loss of Stroughter really hurts the team. Not only do they lose the explosiveness in the offense, they also lose just the threat he brings deep down the field on every offensive snap, the best way to keep opposing defenses honest. They also lose in the punt return game, as Stroughter brought three punts back to the house for TD's last year, or a ratio of one for every 10 punts he returned in 2007.

In the end, with the loss of Stroughter on offense, a green QB and some very difficult road games, the Beavers will take a few steps back from last year's 10-win season. But it won't be a huge fall. I'm calling 8-4 and a Sun Bowl appearance for an experienced, talented team that will be just a little short of breaking into the elite of the conference, yet should still be better than Oregon, ASU, Arizona and the rest.