NHL Season Preview: Atlanta Thrashers

Who's In: Tobias Enstrom, D (Draft-2003); Ken Klee, D (FA-COL); Joel Kwiatkowski, D (FA-PIT); Nathan Oystrik, D (Draft-2002); Eric Perrin, C (FA-TB); Karel Pilar, D (FA-AHL); Jesse Schultz (Trade-VAN); Brett Sterling, LW (Draft - 2003); Chris Thorburn (Trade-PIT); Boris Valabik (Draft-2004); Todd White (FA-MIN)

Who's Out: Eric Belanger, C (FA-MIN); Greg de Vries, D (FA-NSH); Shane Hnidy, D (FA-ANA); Scott Mellanby, RW (Retired); Jon Sim, LW/RW (FA-NYI); Andy Sutton, D (FA-NYI); J.P. Vigier, LW/RW (UFA); Keith Tkachuk, C/LW (Trade-STL)

What's Changed: Not much -- and perhaps that's a problem. On one hand, the Thrashers accomplished a lot in 2006-07, most notably the franchise's first playoff appearance. On the other hand, they're still looking for the franchise's first playoff win after being embarrassed by the Rangers in four straight.

Atlanta hasn't done much to address their needs in the offseason. The blueline is full of question marks (and answers you shouldn't want to hear if you're an Atlanta fan) once you get past a fine top pairing of Alexei Zhitnik and Niclas Havelid and improving defensive defenseman Garnet Exelby. Last season was the first time Ken Klee played more than 70 games in a season since 1999-2000, and fellow new addition Karel Pilar hasn't played a single NHL game since before the lockout (and even then he was missing plenty of time with various injuries and illness). The Thrashers have high hopes for youngsters Mark Popovic, Tobias Enstrom and Nathan Oystrick, but they're just that -- hopes, and hope doesn't necessarily replace half of a departed veteran blueline effectively (though letting Andy Sutton walk may very well prove to be addition by subtraction for Atlanta). Steve McCarthy and Joel Kwiatkowski will also fight for minutes (and if Kiwi wins that fight, something has gone horribly wrong in Atlanta).

Perhaps more importantly, the team failed to find a suitable playmaking center for sniper Ilya Kovalchuk (Todd White's single-season high in assists is 35). While "Kovy" can certainly create his own chances, teams got wise and started taking away his missile of a one-timer from the point on the power-play and without a creative and talented pivot, his goal totals dropped by 10 and his assists by 12 from the year before. Without a threat complimentary to the top line featuring all-everything winger Marian Hossa and Slava Kozlov, the Rangers exposed the lack of depth in the Thrasher attack and held Atlanta to just six goals in the four-game sweep (and that was with the now-departed Keith Tkachuk in the lineup). Expect more of the same this season, unless youngsters like reigning AHL Rookie of the Year and top goal scorer Brett Sterling or Bryan Little can provide a spark. Regardless, the Thrashers are a top-heavy team up front, and are thin down the middle (with White, Bobby Holik, Jim Slater and Steve Rucchin/Eric Perrin/Chris Thorburn projected to be the team's pivots) -- not a good combination.

Atlanta has cap space to play with if they choose to take on more salary to get better (of course, ownership may have its own self-imposed salary cap that will prevent adding so much as another popcorn vendor, so we shall see), and, frankly, they'll probably need to open the checkbook if they don't want to take a step backwards after last year's exciting season.

Who's On The Hook: It would be easy to blame the young stud goaltender if things go badly, but Kari Lehtonen is still only 23 years old and, given the way he has been handled at times, I'm not sure he deserves much blame at all so far.

It would also be easy to blame general manager Don Waddell, the only GM the team has ever had. After all, he's the one who drafted Patrik Stefan 1st overall back in 1999 and, outside of three other top two picks (Kovalchuk, Dany Heatley and presumably Lehtonen), his drafting record leaves a lot to be desired. Throw in a couple of bad free agent signings (Holik at $4.25m per year, for example, who has average 13 goals and 31 points in his two seasons in Hotlanta), a questionable trade or two (the Tkachuk deal leaps to mind) and 2007-08 probably becomes a make-or-break year for Waddell -- his draft picks had better start panning out, and soon.

But since Wads can fire head coach Bob Hartley and Hartley cannot fire Waddell, it's Hartley who will take the blame and be the first casualty should things start going awry in the ATL. Heartless, err, Hartley has seen his Thrashers improve in each of his first three full seasons with the club, but was outcoached in the playoffs and his handling of Lehtonen (playing him without rest for long stretches of the regular season and going back and forth between he and Johan Hedberg in the playoffs) could have a lasting impact on the youngster's psyche. Coaching is very much a "what have you done for me lately?" vocation, and should Atlanta get off to a slow start, don't be surprised if someone else is behind the bench come Christmas (which would be a short-sighted move and likely a mistake in the long run).

Where They'll Finish: The Thrashers finished atop a mediocre (at best) Southeast Division in 2006-07, in large part thanks to an 18-7-7 record within the Division (including a combined 11-2-3 mark against divisional doormats Florida and Washington). But the cellar dwellers of the Southeast got much better in the offseason and the Thrashers, well, didn't. Add in the potential turmoil behind the bench and in the front office, Hossa's impending free agency and the trade rumors that will accompany it, and the Thrash seem primed for a fall. They'll fight for a playoff spot and could very well find themselves looking up at as many division rivals as they best in the standings. Prediction: 2nd Southeast Division and into the playoffs by a feather.

Blogs to watch: Southeast Shootout, Blueland Blog, Do The Thrashers Have Large Talons?

Gratuitous YouTube Embed: Finally, here's why none of his former teammates in Atlanta is going to miss Andy Sutton (and why some of the emerging Southeast Division rivalries are definitely worth watching this season):