Johan Santana Is Can't Miss; Prospects Aren't

The Johan Santana sweepstakes hasn't really heated up yet, though we do know of at least one team (the Yankees) actively working with the Twins to make a deal. The question that still lingers, though: is Santana worth the price of admission? Are three top young prospects too much to ask for a 29-year-old pitcher?

The answer is no, and Tim Marchman has the reasons why:

This gaudy résumé vastly understates how valuable Santana is. Among pitchers, he is by far the surest bet in baseball; he literally has no weaknesses.
Still in his early prime, Santana throws in the middle 90s, changes speeds masterfully, and has unrivaled control, and thus should be able to easily adjust when, years from now, he does lose a bit of his edge to age. He has never thrown more than 120 pitches in a game, and despite this has averaged 228 innings the last four years. From 25 to 28, he has pitched 912.1 innings, and his park-adjusted ERA has been 56% better than average. Since integration, two pitchers have done better at the same ages while pitching at least 800 innings: Martinez and Maddux. Roger Clemens's mark was exactly the same.

The only recent parallel for a pitcher anywhere near this young and this good being traded is Martinez. [...]

Considering Pedro Martinez went on to have some of the best seasons in the history of the game post-trade, that is lofty, lofty praise. Considering pitching prospects are a crapshoot, and Santana is Santana, there's no reason a team should shy away from making this deal. The question now is whether the Yankees and others will have the goods -- and will be willing to deal them -- to get as much of a can't miss thing as there is in baseball today.