How Liverpool's Situation Affected Brad Guzan

UPDATE: Guzan's UK work permit application was rejected. Click here for details.

Aston Villa is putting the finishing touches on its $4 million transfer deal for Brad Guzan today. All the Chivas USA goalkeeper needs now is a UK work permit, and he'll be able to join the Birmingham club as early as this weekend.

At first glance, it didn't look like Villa needed a goalkeeper. All signs pointed to Scott Carson's loan deal from Liverpool becoming permanent this season. However, Liverpool's shaky financial situation may have prompted Villa to make their bid for Guzan.

Follow me on this. As I wrote here, Liverpool co-owner Tom Hicks admitted that the club will have to service annual interest payments of £30 million. That's money that comes out of the club. It's also the approximate amount the club got in TV money from its Champions League run last season.

That's all well and good until Liverpool doesn't qualify for the Champions League. That looked more like a real possibility last night, too, after a late penalty gave West Ham a 1-0 victory over Liverpool, dropping the Reds to 7th place, 3 points adrift of the 4th and final Champions League qualifying spot -- and one point behind 5th place Aston Villa.

As it stands right now, to get into the Champions League next season, Liverpool either has to finish 4th in the Premier League or win this season's Champions League outright. Based on their current form, Rafa Benitez' side might not be able to do either. If they don't get it done, that's £30 million that disappears from the books next season. How does the club make up that short fall?

Simply put, it has to sell players, and one of them might be a goalkeeper. Liverpool was asking for almost £10 million to make Scott Carson's loan permanent at Villa. However, Carson has been playing so well that Liverpool may be considering bringing Carson back to Anfield and selling off Pepe Reina instead, because that might bring in an extra million quid or two.

Villa manager Martin O'Neill knows how desperate Liverpool is -- in no small part because he's trying to make them more desperate. His side is just one of three or four that is attempting to take that 4th Champions League spot away from the Reds, and if that happens, O'Neill might just need a goalkeeper.

Enter Guzan, who was named MLS Goalkeeper of the Year in 2007, hasn't been scored upon in his last 135 minutes of play for the U.S. national team, and was sought by Celtic to be the eventual replacement for Artur Boruc, who may bolt for Milan this summer. Everybody knows that the best American soccer players are the ones that can use their hands. Guzan might be just as good as Carson, and with the current exchange rates, he's a hell of a lot cheaper.

So there's really a lot more intrigue around this deal than meets the eye. If nothing else, it's a sure sign that Carson won't return to Villa Park next August. With all this European interest in Guzan, though, you have to wonder why Chivas USA didn't try to get another decent goalkeeper during the offseason. Surely they had to see this coming, right?