Ryan Dempster - Stud or Shelton?

If you have been playing fantasy baseball for any amount of time, you know all about Ryan Dempster, or as we call him in our league, the Dumptruck. Why give this guy such a negative nickname? Well ... it's because he's been less than reliable over his career.

Bouncing between closing and starting, Dempster has only been a draft day darling when he appeared to be able to provide the holiest of holy statistics, saves. (Indeed, he used to be Exhibit A on the "never pay for saves" theorem, because he generally paired his mediocre saves with a bloated WHIP and ERA.)

This season, manager Lou Piniella decided to move Dempster back into the rotation, which seemed largely a decision predicated on the best fit for Kerry Wood, plus the talented youngster Carlos Marmol. It did not seem a decision made because Dempster was an ace in the wings.

And yet ... he's burst out of the gates. He's 3-0 with a 3.00 ERA and a teensy 1.04 WHIP. In a league where a lot of actual aces are doing far less than this, is Dempster the kind of guy who you can count on for the whole season?
In a word, nope.

I'm not quite suggesting that Dempster is doing this with smoke and mirrors, but his WHIP is somewhat of a mirage. In his 24 innings pitched, he's allowed only 14 hits. That's good. But he's also allowed 11 free passes, an indication that he's not exhibiting great control, but instead getting somewhat lucky on balls in play. Indeed, his BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is among the lowest in the league at just .125. Since an average pitcher has about a .300 BABIP, you can expect Dempster's to rise, which means his WHIP will do likewise. More baserunners tends to lead to more runs, and therefore less wins. (Though wins are so unpredictable that it's impossible to say what he'll do in this category.)

If BABIP is too geeky of a statistic for you, how about this one -- batters are hitting just .169 against Dempster, which is about 100 points below the career batting average against the Dumptruck. Why do we care about stats, people? Because they're a good indicator of what to expect in the future. And as the weather warms up in Wrigley, you can expect opposing batters to begin teeing off when Ryan is on the mound.

Ryan Dempster isn't the worst pitcher in the league, and he sports some aggressive facial hair, but he's certainly doing better now than he's likely to for the rest of the season. He's much more of a Shelton than a stud.