Big Ten Preview: Ohio State, Contender

HAI GUYS I THINK OHIO STATE MAY HAVE PARTICIPATED IN A COUPLE OF EMBARRASSING CONTESTS THE PAST COUPLE JANUARYS WHAT DO YOU THINK ABOUT THAT I THINK THEY'RE SCARED OF MULLETS WHAT DO YOU THINK ABOUT THAT I THINK THEY ARE AFRAID OF DEM SOUTHERN BOYS WHAT DO YOU THINK ABOUT THAT WOO THE SOUTH RISES AGAIN

WHY THEY'LL WIN

The nation reserves its scorn for the two-time defending National-Championship-game whipping boy, but it was quite an accomplishment for Ohio State to even make the NC game minus a whopping nine starters from their defense plus every starter at an offensive skill position. Remember: 2007 was supposed to be Ohio State's down year.

This was supposed to be the up year, and it's easy to see why: terrifyingly, last year's two deep had all of five seniors on it, and three of them were fullbacks. On defense, every player of note returns save edge-rushing terror Vernon Gholston, and those guys were good: the #1 scoring defense, the #1 defense overall.

On offense, Beanie Wells is one of the favorites for the Heisman trophy and the offensive line is burly, talented, and experienced. The passing game... well, whatever. Who needs to pass?

WHY THEY'LL LOSE

Uhhhh... Todd Boeckman? Maybe? Boeckman floated through last year on the wings of angels and Beanie Wells, running up gaudy passer efficiency ratings as opposing defenses attempted to rope down the Tyrannosaurus in the backfield. The idea of Boeckman throwing the ball was virtually ignored and he tossed easy touchdowns to wide-open receivers.

But late in the year Boeckman emerged as something of an achilles heel, throwing three killer interceptions against Illinois in a 28-21 loss and two more in the national championship pantsing, one a hilariously awful, unpressured overthrow that went directly to an LSU defender. He didn't screw up the interim game against Michigan mostly because Chad Henne's arm was only slightly attached to his body by that point in the season: Boeckman threw twice in the second half, finishing with 50 yards passing and one interception.

Other than that... yeah. You either believe in some sort of mystical SEC juju or you don't.

HOW TO BEAT THEM

Two words: second and long. Easier said than done, but teams that successfully slowed the Ohio State offense roped in Wells early, took the chance that Boeckman would burn 'em deep, and lived with the results. Illinois held Wells to 3.8 YPC; LSU gave up one mondo touchdown run but kept Wells in check the rest of the day.

Gouge 'em up the middle? This certainly doesn't sound like a good idea, but the weak point -- if you can call it that -- of the Ohio State defense last year was at defensive tackle. On occasion cracks opened and backs found daylight in there. Not much, somewehat.

Hope Boeckman implodes. This may be your last best hope for peace.

PROGNOSIS

Despite the recent January difficulties, Ohio State's an obvious top-tier national championship contender. The defense will be monstrous and whatever flaws Boeckman has will be covered up by a ground-and-pound attack that can be secure in the idea that 20 points should be more than enough most days.

Y'all better hope USC takes them out early, because it's going to be brain-smashingly annoying if Ohio State appears to be cruising to a third straight title game.