Pac 10 Preview: Oregon, Wildcard

Yes, believe it or not there are other teams besides USC roaming the vastness of the Pac 10 landscape. And yes, crazy as it sounds, said teams could even contend for the conference title. Who knew? Today we look at Oregon, a team that won with big offense last year before injuries devastated a legit BCS bowl run.

WHY THEY'LL WIN

Not the way you would normally expect when you think Oregon. While the offense will be OK, the Ducks will get it done with defense this year. And it could potentially be one of the best defenses in recent Oregon history once all is said and done. Everything starts up front with Nick Reed, the returning Pac 10 leader in sacks (12) and tackles for loss (22 1/2) last year. At 6-2, 255, Reed doesn't have the prototype size at defensive end. There are linebackers in the conference who are as big, if not bigger than Reed. But you can't measure heart, and Reed has as much as any player you will see this year. Reed leaves it all on the field at the end of the day, a relentless presence on the edge who must be accounted for on every snap.

But as great as Reed has been, well, the defensive backs are right there for star-power. Three all-conference candidates patrol the secondary, led by strong safety/rover Patrick Chung. Chung does pretty much everything, racking up 117 tackles (7.5 for loss), tops among all returners in the conference. After flirting with leaving early for the NFL in January, Chung withdrew from draft consideration and is set to have a huge senior year. But the corners are stacked, with Jairus Byrd at one spot and Walter Thurmond III manning the other. Byrd had a conference-high seven interceptions in 2007, while Thurmond was perhaps the best all-around corner in the conference, logging an impressive 103 tackles, five INT's and a team-high 18 pass-breakups. Simply put, Oregon's secondary is right with USC as the best in the conference, and possibly one of the best units in the nation.

WHY THEY'LL LOSE

The offense is bound to take a few steps back from last year's juggernaut. Dennis Dixon was in the Heisman discussion last season until he blew his knee out early in the Arizona game. Dixon's replacement is likely to be Nate Costa, a smart, athletic quarterback who has looked strong in fall practices. But Costa missed all of 2007 with a knee injury of his own, and played only sparingly in 2006. He's never taken a meaningful snap in his career, so this season will be a whole new learning experience. Costa will have to hold off sophomore Justin Roper. Roper is tall (6-6) and has a decent arm, but doesn't have the quickness of Costa, an important element in Chip Kelly's read-option spread offense. However Roper did show he could get the job done at the end of 2007, throwing a record-tying four TD passes in last year's 56-21 Sun Bowl blowout over South Florida.

The running backs have to regroup after Jonathan Stewart bolted early for NFL pastures. Jeremiah Johnson finally gets his chance to be in the spotlight after backing up Stewart the last few seasons, but he is coming off a knee injury of his own, suffering a torn ACL midway through 2007. JC transfer LeGarrette Blount arrives from East Mississippi CC as a 6-2, 230-lb bruiser of a tailback. Blount looked impressive in scrimmages and practices thus far and should help share the load. And you can't forget about Andre Crenshaw, the team's leading returning rusher with 415 yards last year. While all three guys will be in the mix for carries, it's hard to imagine they can replace Stewart's 1700+ yard, 11 TD season of 2007.

HOW TO BEAT THEM

Confuse the young QB, whoever it is. Whether it's Costa or Roper at QB, Oregon can expect to see anything and everything out of opposing defenses, early and often. Defensive coordinators will try to confuse the kid QB's with different coverages, blitz packages and alignments that they haven't seen before in game situations. Make the young QB's prove they can take the heat and take your chances that they can't.

Stay patient on offense. Oregon's defense is going to be strong, but they tend to be over-aggressive at times. While they have some stat-mongers in the secondary, the Ducks did give up 249 yards per game through the air last year, ranking #86 in the nation. Part of that could be based on the fact that they got off to a great start in the beginning of the year, with several blowout wins where teams were forced to chuck it just to keep things respectable. But if you have a smart, efficient QB who can manage the game and not make the killer mistake, you have a good shot at moving the ball.

Win the turnover battle. You could probably say this about many teams in the nation, but it's especially true with Oregon. In three of their four losses last year, they finished in the minus side of the ledger for turnovers, including a minus-4 in their loss at home to Cal.

PROGNOSIS

Every preseason look at the Ducks has seen them placed firmly in the top three, and it is hard to argue against the idea. Yes, some big stars in Dixon and Stewart have moved on, but there is talent waiting to take over. But while Oregon will contend, the schedule looks to be their undoing. The non-conference portion isn't brutal, but it doesn't look like a layup either, with a road game at Purdue on 9/13, then hosting a feisty Boise State team on 9/20.

But it's the Pac 10 schedule that looks much more difficult, with five road games. Oregon goes to USC on October 4th, and then later in the month, a rough two-game stretch with at ASU on 10/25 and at Cal 11/1. Of course there is always the Civil War, played at Oregon State on 11/29, and the Beavers have taken three of the last four in the rivalry. The Ducks visit to ASU will likely decide second place in the conference. It looks like either a Holiday Bowl or Sun Bowl season for Oregon.