Mistakes Are Being Made, So Please Stop Drafting Larry Johnson

I'll start off by giving an arm-bash to Mathew Greber on this idea. He's been running a series called, "Mistakes Were Made," a look back at some things that escaped fantasy players and experts alike prior to the '07 football season. I'll put on my prognosticator hat and give a whirl as to some mistakes that are happening currently in fantasy drafts.

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The Top Mistake? Ladies and Gentlemen ... it ain't even close:

Larry Johnson
Yeah, that's right. Larry Johnson on your fantasy team is a big mistake. I'm seeing him go in the late first round or early second round personally, and I'm viewing an ADP chart right now where he's ranked 11th overall. Ugh. I'm not going to list all the players being drafted behind him on the ADP chart who deserve to be taken over him, because it would take too long. I will, however, list the most egregious examples, in no particular order: Marshawn Lynch, Ryan Grant, Reggie Wayne, Braylon Edwards, Terrell Owens, Peyton Manning, Tony Romo, Larry Fitzgerald, Drew Brees, Brandon Jacobs, Laurence Maroney, and Andre Johnson.

Overvalued Fantasy Stars

Larry Johnson's 20-touchdown season of 2005 seems like a distant memory now. Coming off an injury-shortened season, Johnson will try to be the driving force on an offense that looks very unintimidating on paper. This former fantasy stud has the odds stacked against him.

Jonathan Daniel, Getty Images

Tom Brady transformed into a juggernaut in fantasy football leagues last season. But FanHouse's experts agree that it's foolish to expect anything close to a record-breaking year from the Patriots quarterback this time around.

Elsa, Getty Images

Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo didn't reach Brady's lofty touchdown plateau, but 36 scoring strikes were more than enough for a career season in 2007. Romo holds an inflated value as a result, and you shouldn't burn a second-round pick based on last year's totals.

Matt Slocum, AP

This will be the third year in a row you'll hear pundits rave about the star potential of Reggie Bush. But he'll be splitting time with Deuce McAllister, and when 2008 comes to a close, we may very well look back to another disappointing season for the dual-threat running back.

Rogelio V. Solis, AP

Here's where fantasy football can be skewed by reality. Many novice owners will put too much stock in Eli Manning's surprising Super Bowl title run. But you shouldn't expect Manning to emerge as a must-start quarterback.

Ross D. Franklin, AP

There's no doubt that Calvin Johnson has the talent to be an elite wideout, but Lions quarterback Jon Kitna has a bunch of other targets to throw to, including top threat Roy Williams. Johnson's a great receiver to draft, just don't take the gamble on him as your No. 2 option.

Kevin C. Cox, Getty Images

The Chicago Bears defense was formidable in name only last season. Allowing 354.7 yards per game to opposing offenses doesn't equate to being 'Monsters of the Midway.' Let other fantasy leaguers buy the name, while you wait on less praised units like the Redskins.

Charles Rex Arbogast, AP

Much like his record-breaking partner Brady, wide receiver Randy Moss became a supreme force with his 23-touchdown season. But if you want to draft him this year, it will cost you a first-round pick instead of a fourth. In most leagues, it's not worth taking the early leap.

Eric Gay, AP

New Falcons running back Michael Turner has the nickname and the bruising style that everyone gets excited about, but "The Burner" faces an uphill battle in Atlanta with a questionable offensive attack, and he'll be sharing carries with speedster Jerious Norwood.

John Bazemore, AP

Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger won't get totally knocked off his feet this season, but it's unlikely that he throws another 32 touchdowns. For you to get any positive return on the high draft pick it'll take to get him, he'll have to meet 2007's numbers.

Chris McGrath, Getty Images

Again, I'd rather own a myriad of other dudes than Johnson, but those are the most glaring.

Why?

I mean, he's only a couple of seasons removed from being the consensus No. 1 pick in fantasy football. Right?

True, but he's also only two seasons removed from being run into the ground in the form of 416 carries. The season before that he nabbed 336 despite carrying the rock less than ten times in five games (when Priest Holmes was healthy). Is it possible that being injured last season saved him from being beaten up on a weekly basis by opposing defenses, thereby freeing him for a return to form this season? Only if you ignore all the other factors.

- The utter lack of a passing attack he'll have in '08 is one of those factors. In '05, Trent Green was throwing for over 4,000 yards to take pressure off LJ. Even Damon Huard stepped in for the injured Green in '06 to compile a 98 QB rating. Brodie Croyle isn't going to perform like that.

- The offensive line in KC used to be generally regarded as the best in the NFL. They helped make Priest and LJ both into superstars. Something happened, though: they got old. Now the majority of them are gone and being replaced by inexperience and less talent.

- Tony Richardson was also around for '05, and he's one of the best blocking backs of all time. Without him in '06, LJ's average per carry went down almost a yard (5.2 in '06 to 4.3).

Those proclaiming last season was a result of his holdout are fooling themselves, because there is just too much evidence to the contrary.

Leave him on the board. Please.

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Mistake No. 2

Taking low-ceiling receivers in the late rounds as your fifth wideout over potential breakouts
If you only have to play two or three receivers per week and you're sitting there late in a draft with four -- and all your bye weeks are covered -- do not waste your time on a low-upside guy like Isaac Bruce. There's a definite ceiling to his numbers at this age. What you should be doing -- when your perceived active roster fills -- is going after guys that have the potential to be breakthrough studs, considering you aren't planning on ever starting this guy anyway. DeSean Jackson is a guy that comes to mind. He's only behind the fickle Kevin Curtis and the uninspiring Reggie Brown on the Philly depth chart. You know Donovan McNabb is going to throw, so take the flier on Jackson.

Examples of the guys to take in this situation: Eddie Royal, Devin Thomas, James Hardy, Ted Ginn, and Robert Meachem.

Examples of the guys not to take in this situation: Justin Gage, Brandon Stokley, David Patten, Drew Bennett, Muhsin Muhammad, and Amani Toomer.

Beasts of the Backfield

No. 1 - LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers
Even as he approaches his 30th birthday, Tomlinson is still the undisputed king of fantasy running backs. He's produced at least 1,775 total yards and 15 touchdowns in six straight seasons -- numbers that place him in a class of his own.

Harry How, Getty Images

No. 2 - Adrian Peterson, Vikings
It wasn't all about the highlights for Peterson in his rookie season. The statistics were mind-boggling too, including a record-setting 296-yard game against the Chargers. Durability is a question mark, but his lofty upside is worth the No. 2 spot.

Stephen Dunn, Getty Images

No. 3 - Joseph Addai, Colts
With the full-time gig last season, Addai totaled 704 yards and nine touchdowns over his first seven games played, but wore down in the second half. We expect stronger legs and even bigger numbers from Addai in his third season as a pro.

Andy Lyons, Getty Images

No. 4 - Brian Westbrook, Eagles
He often faces doubts about his ability to last, but Westbrook has thrived with a heavy workload his last two seasons. He's a monster in point-per-reception leagues, and a consistent top threat in any format.

Nick Laham, Getty Images

No. 5 - Steven Jackson, Rams
A training camp holdout isn't enough to keep Jackson from our top five. With the offensive line healthy again and Al Saunders in charge, Action Jackson should bring the same flash he exhibited over his final eight games last season (933 total yards and five scores).

Dilip Vishwanat, Getty Images

Other Mistakes
Holding onto the past with running backs
Edgerrin James and Willie Parker used to be top-10 overall selections; quality first-rounders in any format. Those days are gone -- and in Edge's case, long gone. You have no business taking them over Thomas Jones, Earnest Graham, or Selvin Young for varying reasons. Yet there they are, getting picked immediately before Jones and about four RBs before Young on ADP charts.

Taking Tony Romo over Drew Brees
You can post all the comments you wish, now, Cowboys fans ... but after the season when the dust has settled and Brees has better numbers, will you be back to admit defeat?

Drafting a kicker before the last round
Too much unpredictability teamed with not much difference between the tenth-highest scoring kicker and the 20th. There is no reason to draft a kicker before the last round, no matter the league size.

Falling in love with Frank Gore because of Mike Martz's presence
You can like Gore -- and I do -- to have a solid season, but if your reasoning is simply because of Mike Martz you need not look any further than the numbers of the Lions backfield the past two seasons. Don't let your mind run wild about how much better Martz is going to make Gore. Check yourself by asking where you'd list him without Martz and you'll have Gore slotted just right.

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