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NBA Top 50: Monta Ellis (No. 37)

Sep 4, 2008 – 3:30 PM
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Tom Ziller

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FanHouse's Tom Ziller argues his ranking of the
top 50 players in the NBA.

Not to be selfish, but Monta Ellis' aerial wolf hunting expedition -- or whatever led to his ankle injury -- really screwed up this here ranking. I had slotted him here, in the mid-30s, based on the idea he'd be Golden State's warrior. A player who dropped 25 a night on a steady river of absurd Barbosian dashes through the lane.

Ellis has already arrived on the scene -- he followed a Most Improved trophy (bah) with a season of better actual improvement. But moving from hot stuff to star, that's what I expected to happen this season when I slotted dude here at #37. Needless to say, it's not going to happen.

Dwyane Wade, aforementioned, entered the league at age 21 and turned 22 before the All-Star break. That rookie season, per 36 minutes, Wade averaged 17 points on a True Shooting percentage of 53%, with 4 rebounds and 5 assists. Monta turned 22 at the start of last season. He averaged (per 36 minutes) 19 points on a 58% TS%, 5 rebounds and 4 assists.

The circumstances differ: Wade, again, was a rookie, while Ellis registered his third season. Wade played under a Van Gundy regime, and had to maintain point guard duties much of the season. Ellis played Nellieball and had an elite PG next to him Baron Davis. But all told -- a young combo without a jumper, but holding unbelievable athleticism and drive in his sneakers ... it's closer than you think.

Wade turned that package into a Finals MVP and top o' the league status within two years. Could Ellis? Monta is less bulky, which would imply he couldn't stand the hits this brand of player takes. Consider the injuries Wade has already suffered. Make him slighter, less able to bounce off bodies in one piece ... you have Monta. That has nothing to do with the current malady, which apparently came on an asphalt spill, not a hard bump from Nocioni.

Ellis would have come into the season with all this on the line. If he stayed status quo, he ends up the smaller Jason Richardson: a good, potent weapon who happens to be overpaid. If he continues to get better (as he has every year of his career), he forces himself into the top tier of the league's two-guards. Unless the GSW investigation is all panic and no substance, and Ellis will actually be back in November (Kawakami is disinclined to believe it) ... unless Monta barely misses anything, we aren't going to be able to figure him out this season. As Shoals argued last week, this was to be a critical season for our understanding of Monta. Now? One long tape delay.

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