NFL Gambling Guru Brandon Lang's Week 1 Picks: Eagles, Bengals, Jets

Brandon Lang, whose life as a professional sports handicapper was depicted in the 2005 movie Two For The Money, offers picks that he says can turn a profit over the long-term for his clients. His full picks are available exclusively at his web site, www.BrandonLang.com, but he's offered a few picks to us for free here at FanHouse.

Eagles (-8) over Rams
How bad were the St. Louis Rams last year? Only four teams in the NFL scored fewer points, and only one (Detroit) gave up less. If ever there was a recipe for constructing a 3-13 team, that would be it. True, the Rams dealt with so many injuries in 2007 that they considered changing their logo to the Red Cross symbol. But the Eagles had a slew of key injuries, too – including QB Donovan McNabb, who missed two games – yet they managed to gut out a .500 season, winning their final three games to break even at 8-8.

McNabb is healthy entering the 2008 campaign and rumor has it he has a big chip on his shoulder. Well, there's no reason to think he won't at least get off to a big start in this game against a Rams defense that gives guided tours to the end zone. And then there's St. Louis quarterback Marc Bulger, who last year treated the football like it was made out of plutonium (15 interceptions). Throw in the fact that the Rams covered a pointspread in just five of their 11 games last year (3-9 ATS as an underdog).

If I was embattled St. Louis coach Scott Linehan, I'd be spending as much time sifting through the want-ads this week as I did on the game plan.

Bengals (-2) over Ravens
I have two rules when it comes to Week 1 of the NFL season: 1) Make sure the fridge is fully stocked and the big-screen is in proper working order, and 2) Go against rookie quarterbacks making their first NFL start, especially those who 12 months ago were throwing passes for the University of Delaware and are now leading a team that went 5-11 a year ago.

Look, Joe Flacco may turn out to be a fine NFL quarterback, but what the Ravens are asking this kid to do would be akin to asking a high-school drama student to step in front of the camera with Nicholson and nail a scene. Granted, the Bengals' defense has more holes in it than a Mafia rat, but that defense wasn't very good last year and yet Baltimore only produced 27 points in two games against it (both losses) and that was with two veterans under center in Steve McNair and Kyle Boller.

The Bengals have won and covered three straight games against the Ravens with Baltimore scoring a grand total of four touchdowns in those defeats. What's more, the Ravens sent supporters to the poorhouse last year with a 3-13 ATS mark. Bottom line: The inconsistent Bengals don't figure to have too many easy wins on their schedule this season, but this will be one of them.

Jets (-3) over Dolphins
There's a reason the Jets jettisoned Chad Pennington in favor of Brett Favre – and it wasn't just to sell jerseys. It's because Favre can actually throw a ball on a line more than 20 yards. At the same time, there was a reason the Dolphins picked Pennington up off the scrap heap and immediately handed the limp-noodled quarterback the keys to the offense: Because Miami stinks, so much so that bringing in Pennington is considered a big upgrade! And he is, because as long as he stays healthy, Pennington will be more effective than the crap Miami put under center last year. However, the guy still has serious limitations. And who knows more about those limitations than his former employer?

Favre won't even be that much of a factor in this game; it'll be the Jets' defense that will have the biggest impact. Besides, if past history is any indication, New York ought to be the best bet of the weekend. Not only have the Jets won the last four meetings in this rivalry and seven of the last eight, but they're 19-4-2 ATS in the last 25 battles with Miami, including 8-0-1 ATS dating to 2003! Indeed, there are two absolute certainties at Dolphin Stadium on Sunday: The Jets will win and cover, and Miami president Bill Parcells will get so much camera time, you'll think he's running for president.