Playoff Pulse: Knuckle Up, Wake's Pitching

In the Playoff Pulse Series, our MLB editor takes on a hot October topic.

There's something fitting, or poetic, or maybe even perfect about Boston's season coming down to a start by Tim Wakefield. Putting your season in the hands of a knuckleball pitcher like Wakefield is a bit like betting a year's salary on black at the roulette table -- it's an awful lot to wage on just one thing, but the odds aren't all that bad.

Wakefield is unique -- the one true practicing knuckleballer with a regular gig in the major leagues right now. When he's on, you wish there were more pitchers around like him, but part of his success comes from the fact that he's a complete novelty. For all the talk about Jamie Moyer being a crafty, soft-tossing veteran, Wakefield has been around nearly as long as Moyer and he throws even softer.

He has arguably the best contract in baseball, a never-ending team option for $4 million a year. That's tremendous value for a back-of-the-rotation starting pitcher. Wakefield can be even more than that when the knuckler is fluttering in the wind. Of course, things can turn quickly on him if his signature pitch starts to rotate and flatten out. The 2003 ALCS is a perfect example -- ha baffled the Yankees in two starts and was on his way to being series MVP, and then Aaron Boone got a hold of one of the bad knuckleballs.

So which version of Wakefield -- Dr. Jekyll or Mr. Hyde -- will show up in Game 4? He's had lots of success against the Rays in the past, but he was rocked in a start against them this September. He had great numbers at Fenway Park during the regular season (7-4, 3.10 ERA), but battled injury problems down the stretch.

Matt Snyder will fill you in on all the details later today, but the point with Wakefield is that splits and situational statistics and history don't mean very much in Wakefield's case. If the knuckleball is moving all over the strike zone, he'll be successful, if not the Rays should pound him.

The Red Sox had better pray that the good Wakefield shows up Tuesday night.

They've made a habit of rising from the ashes in the ALCS recently. They recovered from a 3-1 deficit against Cleveland last year and a 3-0 deficit against New York in 2004. But those teams had Curt Schilling and Pedro Martinez, a fully healthy Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell. They had Manny Ramirez spraying the ball to all fields and the superhuman version of David Ortiz.

This team has a very mortal Big Papi, a Beckett with dramatically diminished stuff and Jason Varitek swinging like he's 20,000 leagues under sea.

In other words, they're not going to be able to mount another miraculous comeback with the current shape of their roster.

And that's OK, because the dirty little secret of this year's postseason is that the Red Sox are playing with just as much house money as the Rays. They've overcome major injuries to Beckett, Ortiz, Lowell, Schilling, J.D. Drew, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Julio Lugo as well as the acrimonious departure of Ramirez at the trade deadline, and they have two titles in their pocket.

On the other hand, they're one of four teams left with a shot at the World Series, and title chances only come along every so often. The Red Sox know that better than anyone. If they're going to pick themselves up off of the mat and win the pennant, a victory in Game 4 is mandatory. The ALCS is far from over, but Boston is a lot closer to being finished than anyone realizes.

Yesterday's Hero: Matt Garza. Honorable mention to Shane Victorino, Matt Stairs, Derek Lowe, B.J. Upton and Rocco Baldelli.

Yesterday's Goat: Jonathan Broxton. Dishonorable mention to (very half-heartedly) Jon Lester and Joe Torre.