Footprints in the Snow: Oakland Athletics

Footprints in the Snow is FanHouse's look at the paths to be forged by MLB teams this winter as they look ahead to 2009.

It's obvious that Billy Beane doesn't understand the concept of Footprints in the Snow. You see first, we tell major league GMs what they oughta do, then we predict what they will actually do. After that, the GMs go and do something nobody expects and they show us why they're running baseball teams and we're blogging about it.

Beane has the order wrong. He's not supposed to go and leave his footprints in the offseason snow before we write about it? What fun is that? But that's exactly what Billy did yesterday as he went and traded for Matt Holliday. So what you're about to read is a second draft done through the prism of the Holliday trade. Thanks a lot Billy. Next time, could you take better notes at our meetings?

Who may leave?
RF Emil Brown (free agent)
RP Alan Embree (Type B free agent)
RP Keith Foulke (free agent)
DH Frank Thomas (Type B free agent)

What do they need?
The A's entered the offseason as that guy who hasn't eaten in three days and has a limited amount of money in his pocket ... so the first thing he does is go to a buffet and puts a little bit of everything on his plate. Because that's what the A's need: a little bit of everything. But what ultimately drove Beane to use the extra money allotted to him to add Holliday was the lack of offensive production in '08. Beane was the first guy to value on-base percentage ... made a living out of getting guys on the cheap that can get on base.

Offseason Storylines

Athletics | 2008 Finish: 75-86, third place in AL West
FanHouse Take: "With [Matt] Holliday in the fold and with an obvious focus on 2009, why not give him somebody to drive in? Now there's no reason for the A's not to look at free-agent shortstop Rafael Furcal" (Read Post)

Justin Sullivan, Getty Images

Angels | 2008 Finish: 100-62, AL West champions
FanHouse Take: "Owner Arte Moreno is willing to spend big to keep his team in the hunt, but even his pockets have a limit ... right? Is he willing to break the bank to retain his own blue-chip free agents, [Mark] Teixeira and Francisco Rodriguez, and throw his hat in the CC Sabathia sweepstakes?" (Read Post)

Elise Amendola, AP

Astros | 2008 Finish: 86-75, third place in NL Central
FanHouse Take: "The deadliest combination for a middling baseball team is the combination of a year in which the team overachieves and has a GM bad enough not to recognize that his team isn't as good as they played. ... I think they have a real recipe for disaster on their hands this offseason." (Read Post)

Harry How, Getty Images

Blue Jays | 2008 Finish: 86-76, fourth place in AL East
FanHouse Take: "In this crossroad season for the Blue Jays, it's time to show the type of commitment they have. If their move isn't made now, the Rays, Yanks, and Sox may make sure that there will never be a move." (Read Post)

Jonathan Daniel, Getty Images

Braves | 2008 Finish: 86-76, fourth place in AL East
FanHouse Take: "Atlanta has never been a win-now-at-any-cost type of team, and it shouldn't suddenly become one; but the Braves have a loaded farm system and no major league pitching." (Read Post)

Mike Zarrilli, Getty Images

Brewers | 2008 Finish: 90-72, NL wild card
FanHouse Take: "The important thing for the Brewers and their fans to remember is that they're going to be in good shape next year. ... They've still got a great offense, they've still got Yovani Gallardo and Manny Parra, and hey, Eric Gagne's gone!" (Read Post)

Nick Laham, Getty Images

Giants | 2008 Finish: 72-90, fourth place in NL West
FanHouse Take: "The Giants need to build around the young starting pitching and allow their farm system to develop. Signing two to three free agent infielders with power would make the team as competitive as it needs to be in 2009." (Read Post)

Ben Margot, AP

Indians | 2008 Finish: 81-81, third place in AL Central
FanHouse Take: "In the end, it will probably be another relatively quiet offseason in Cleveland. ... A team with the Indians' resources is rarely going to make a big splash in free agency. And that's probably the right move, even if you end up looking bad when things don't work out." (Read Post)

Jim McIsaac, Getty Images

Marlins | 2008 Finish: 84-77, third place in NL East
FanHouse Take: "In the end, it will be the same old song for the Marlins, a couple of steps backward because of money with the potential for big leaps forward because of the prospects acquired in trades." (Read Post)

Doug Benc, Getty Images

Orioles | 2008 Finish: 68-93, last place in AL East
FanHouse Take: "Besides bolstering the rotation, the Orioles probably won't make much of a dent in the free agent market. ... That's as it should be for a club building toward serious contention in the next decade, not in this one." (Read Post)

Christian Petersen, Getty Images

The problem now is that the teams that actually have money have caught on, and now they're going after the same type of guys that Beane once coveted. And now, Billy lives in a world where a team that he's put together has finished last in the AL in OBP (1/1,000th of a point ahead of the Padres for last in all of baseball), and dead last in OPS by a significant margin. So Beane had to figure out a way to re-invent the wheel ... again. Holliday was a good start. Even when you factor in his home/road splits and figure that a full season in Oakland will look more like his road numbers last year (.308/.405/.486), it's still a massive improvement over what they had.

What should they do?
With Holliday, Beane doesn't have to invent a time machine to go ahead five seasons where all their young players will have matured physically and mentally. But with Holliday in the fold and with an obvious focus on 2009, why not give him somebody to drive in? Now there's no reason for the A's not to look at free agent shortstop Rafael Furcal, and with Holliday on board there's no reason why Furcal wouldn't at least consider Oakland in return. Furcal has an OBP of well over .400, and due to his injury does not qualify for Type A status which means the A's could sign him without giving up a precious draft pick (and would enable Beane to wheel and deal Bobby Crosby). And if it's going to take a multi-year deal to get Furcal, then maybe Beane will think about back-loading the deal like the Marlins did with Carlos Delgado, so if you want to return the focus to the future after '09 when Holliday is due to leave, you can wheel Furcal for more prospects after the season.

What will they do?
Beane has already proven that he's too smart for me so to attempt to answer this question would be foolish. With black being white and East being up, the world is turned too upside down to try and guess Billy's next move. Manny? Sabathia? A reunion with Milton Bradley? Let's not get crazy. But Beane proves that some things previously thought to be off the table aren't really. Could there be reunions with Jason Giambi? Jermaine Dye? Nick Swisher? All are either available or rumored to be available. And for the right price, they could all come back to help with the sunken OPS problem. Beane would then probably go after guys like Eric Hinske or Greg Norton to fill out their bench. The best part is that Beane is no longer desperate enough to sign Type B free agent Moises Alou ... although he has had an OBP of close to .400 over the past two years, and Eric Chavez is going to need a fishing buddy on the disabled list.

Nah, trading for Matt Holliday is a much better idea.