BCS Picture Clears Up Slightly, But Somebody Can Still Mess It Up for Everyone

As if anybody needed any proof that college football is completely batcakes, here it is. As we head into the final weekend, where all six BCS conferences will be playing, we don't really know who will grab the ten big-money bowl bids. There's a team in control of its own destiny and, in a way, everyone else's.

No, not either of those two. Alabama's getting a BCS bid no matter what. Florida only misses out if it loses to the Citadel, or to Florida State, and then loses to the Crimson Tide in Atlanta. Color that scenario unlikely.

Not one of those three either. There's a limit of two teams per conference in the BCS, so one of the Big 12 South's power trio gets left out no matter what happens in the next three weeks. If Missouri shocks the world in Kansas City, two of them get left out.

And relax. Nobody in the Big Ten will get to the title game, barring some unbelievable post-Thanksgiving train wreck the likes of which we haven't seen since, um, last season.

So who is it? Who's the mystery team that could be the kingmaker? Upon whom does the fortune of entire teams and conferences depend?

Oregon State.

Here's why. The Beavers are in control of the Pac 10, not Southern Cal. They own the tiebreaker over the Trojans by virtue of their victory over them way back in September. If Mike Riley's team wins out, they win the Pac 10, and all the BCS pieces fall into place.

The six BCS conference champions get automatic bids. The top-ranked mid-major team gets a bid if they finish in the top 12 of the final BCS rankings, or in the top 16 but ranked higher than a BCS conference champion. Of the current undefeated mid-majors (Utah, Boise State, and Ball State), you can bet that at least one of them will qualify, and BYU can't be completely ruled out either.

The #3 team in the final BCS rankings automatically gets an at-large bid unless they come from the same conference as the #1 and #2 teams. Then the #4 team gets a bid, unless they come from the same conference as the top two teams as well. That could come in to play, given that four of the five teams ranked ahead of Southern Cal in the BCS standings have games left against each other. Two of them will lose, obviously, meaning that USC can get an automatic bid by finishing in the top four, providing nobody from the Big 12 finishes ahead of them.

The Trojans have games left against Notre Dame and UCLA. What are they odds they don't finish in the top four?

Factor in the mandatory mid-major bid with the ones we mentioned earlier, and that's all ten. The only way anybody else gets in is if Oregon State loses one of their last two games. That's a distinct possibility, since those games are at Arizona and the Civil War at home against Oregon. If the Beavers win out, though, then the only things we don't know right now are the identity of the mid-major team that gets a bid, and which team(s) from the Big 12 South get in.

Should the Beavers lose, USC goes to the Rose Bowl and one at-large bid remains. It couldn't go to anybody from the Big 12 or SEC, because they'd already have two teams in. The BCS is only obligated to select one mid-major team, but another could be picked as an at-large team.

The BCS is run by the BCS conferences. They're not letting two mid-majors grab the brass paycheck. An Oregon State loss almost certainly puts two Big Ten teams in the BCS. The grumbling starts below.