From the Windup: One Man Fills Out a Hypothetical Hall of Fame Ballot

From the Windup is FanHouse's extended look at a particular portion of America's pastime.

The 2009 Hall of Fame ballot was released Monday, and with it is certain to come heated debate right up until and after the voting results are revealed on Jan. 12, 2009. This year's class of candidates is similar to last year's, in that it's a shallow group.

There is only one sure-fire Hall of Famer among the 23 candidates, which means this is a critical vote for the borderline players who have been up for election on multiple occasions. Now is the time for those borderline guys to get over the top or make a big push to lay the groundwork for election in future years.

After the jump is a breakdown of the ballot, complete with what I think will happen and what should happen with this year's class of Cooperstown contenders.

The Lock

Rickey Henderson: This is assuming Rickey isn't inked to a deal to by Brian Sabean this winter. Henderson is the all-time stolen bases leader. He had tremendous longevity and he might just be the greatest leadoff hitter in baseball history. He should be a unanimous choice, but won't be because of the fickle electorate, and I'm already looking forward to his acceptance speech.

The Longshots

These players have virtually no chance of election: Jay Bell, Ron Gant, Jesse Orosco, Dan Plesac, Greg Vaughn, Mo Vaughn, Matt Williams.

The Contenders

Harold Baines: Despite good counting statistics, he doesn't have the magic number, the sustained stretch of sheer dominance or the defensive value to merit election.

Bert Blyleven: He shouldn't be a borderline case, but he is because of a lousy won-loss record that's mostly a function of playing on poor teams for the majority of his career. Blyleven has made significant progress toward election over the last few years, garnering nearly 62 percent of the vote last time around. He probably won't get in this year, but he'll get close, ensuring his election at some point in the near future.

David Cone: A good pitcher on some very good teams. Fun to watch. Not Cooperstown material.

Andre Dawson: Like Blyleven, he's going to get in someday soon, but probably not this year. Dawson was a tremendous athlete -- one of the few players in history with 400 home runs and 300 stolen bases -- but his resume is dragged down by his poor plate discipline. His .323 career on-base percentage would be enough to keep me from voting for him.

Mark Grace: A championship-caliber player, but his best shot at making the Hall at this point is as a broadcaster.

Tommy John: Unfortunately, he doesn't get bonus points for having a revolutionary surgery named after him. A career ERA+ of 110 sinks his case.

Don Mattingly: Simply didn't enjoy a long enough career to mount a serious case.

Mark McGwire: Independent of the steroids issue, Big Mac is pretty much a slam dunk, but, of course, you can't ignore the performance-enhanced elephant in the room. McGwire isn't getting in this year after receiving only 23.6 percent of the vote in 2008, his second year on the ballot. His future prospects depend largely on how the BBWAA comes to terms with the steroids era. It's my belief that they should accept that drug use was rampant during the era and vote without regard for who used and who didn't -- after all, we'll never really know for sure -- and I have a feeling that's eventually how most of the electorate will vote, but it's going to take time.

Jack Morris: He's the bizarro-Blyleven, a pitcher with a great record that's largely a function of the good teams he played on during his career. He's not going to make it this year, and with a career ERA a mere 5 percent above league average, let's hope it stays that way.

Dale Murphy: Underappreciated, but not quite Hall material.

Dave Parker: Murphy plus one season and minus the defensive value. Neither player is going to be elected.

Tim Raines: He has a snowball's chance in hell of getting elected this year, but it will be interesting to see how much progress he makes after getting a disappointing 24.3 percent of the vote in his first year on the ballot. Raines was, in many ways, a poor man's Henderson, though that's no slight against him. He was the ideal leadoff hitter -- with a .385 career on-base percentage and 808 stolen bases in 954 attempts -- and he shouldn't be punished simply because his greatness was overshadowed by Rickey's.

Jim Rice: He needed only a handful more votes to make it last time around and in his final appearance on the ballot, it's expected he'll get over the top at last. Rice is one of the tougher cases in recent memory because of the shortness of both his career and his prime and because of the intangible argument often made on his behalf that he was the "most-feared" hitter in the American League -- an argument that is virtually impossible to refute because it is so nebulous. He falls just short in my estimation, but that won't matter next month.

Lee Smith: It's getting harder and harder to keep him out as other relievers are elected. Smith is a step back from Goose Gossage and much of his case rests on one number -- 478 saves. I wouldn't write in his name, but it seems like he's slowly heading toward election.

Alan Trammell: A favorite of sabermetricians, but not of the electorate, I have a hard time wrapping my head around a vote for Trammell. He was productive for a long time, but, just eyeing his career and year-by-year statistics, he doesn't have a magic number or the prolonged stretch of utter dominance that I like to see in a Hall-worthy candidate.

So there you have it. If I had a ballot, Bert Blyleven, Rickey Henderson, Mark McGwire and Tim Raines would be on it. My guess is that Henderson and Jim Rice will be elected to the Hall of Fame next month, with guys like Blyleven and Dawson making significant progress toward future election. Now let the debate begin.