NFL Playoff Fantasy Football Guide

There are several different fantasy playoffs models, so it's difficult to accommodate everyone when doing any set of fantasy advice for the real playoffs. Most common models require you to do a bit of prognosticating as far as the actual game winners. To that, I say good luck. This isn't like last year, where we all knew the Patriots were going to the Super Bowl. This season the playoffs are wide open, and no, I don't think the Giants are a sure thing to make the big game. They are the surest bet, but it's still a bet.

Anyway, we're going to analyze some of the players.

First, here are the regular-season defensive rankings for the teams playing this postseason.

Team (overall rank, rushing rank, passing rank, scoring rank)

Pittsburgh Steelers (1, 2, 1, 1)
Baltimore Ravens (2, 3, 2, 3)
Philadelphia Eagles (3, 4, 3, 4)
New York Giants (5, 9, 8, 5)
Minnesota Vikings (6, 1, 18, 13)
Tennessee Titans (7, 6, 9, 2)
Indianapolis Colts (11, 24, 6, 7)
Miami Dolphins (15, 10, 25, 9)
Carolina Panthers (18, 20, 16, 12)
Arizona Cardinals (19, 16, 21, 28)
Atlanta Falcons (24, 25, 22, 11)
San Diego Chargers (25, 11, 31, 15)
Here are some things we can deduce from that.

- The Dolphins and Falcons allow lots of yardage without giving up an inordinate amount of points.
- You can't run on the Vikings, but you can surely pass on them.
- Arizona's defense is the worst left.
- The Chargers' pass defense is embarrassing.
- The Steelers, Ravens, Eagles, and -- to a lesser extent -- the Giants and Titans, are incredibly tough on opposing offenses.

With that stuff in mind, we'll go through, by position, the fantasy relevant players.

Quarterback

Big upside: Kurt Warner -- Most people believe the Cardinals are going to get bounced in the first round. If you like gambling, however, you can possibly get two really solid games out of Warner. The Falcons have a poor pass defense ranking. The Cards play much better at home, so it's possible they take down the inexperienced Falcons. If so, the Cards could be facing the Panthers -- if the Eagles beat Minnesota -- mediocre pass defense in round two. I'm intrigued.

Bust: Chad Pennington -- the numbers don't look good for his potential here. The Ravens kill opposing offenses, and are favored. I don't think you want to waste such an important position on Pennington's one lackluster game.

Elite picks: Peyton Manning, Donovan McNabb
Safe pick: Eli Manning
Upside gambles: Philip Rivers, Joe Flacco, Matt Ryan, Jake Delhomme
Bad picks: Kerry Collins, Ben Roethlisberger, Tarvaris Jackson

Running Back

Big upside: LeRon McClain -- I really like the Ravens to make some noise, and the first round game against Miami presents quite the opportunity to rack up yardage and hit paydirt once or twice.

Bust: Ronnie Brown -- He's averaging just over 13 carries a game this season. While he's reached the end zone 10 times, that lack of touches is enough to scare me into not wanting him. I haven't even mentioned the Ravens' stellar run defense, either. Ignore him.

Elite picks: Adrian Peterson, DeAngelo Williams, Brian Westbrook, Michael Turner
Safe picks: LaDanian Tomlinson, Brandon Jacobs, Chris Johnson
Upside gambles: Derrick Ward, Joseph Addai, LenDale White, Mewelde Moore, Jonathan Stewart
Bad picks: Ricky Williams, Willis McGahee, Willie Parker, Chester Taylor, any Cardinals

Wide Receiver

Big upside: Reggie Wayne -- The Chargers are brutal against the pass, so Wayne will be able to exploit them. I'm expecting a Colts victory, which would mean their next opponent will completely shut down the run and the Colts will be forced to take it to the air.

Bust: Bernard Berrian -- The Vikes won't be passing much on Philly, and I'm counting on a loss. Don't waste a spot on Berrian.

Elite picks: Steve Smith, Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin
Safe picks: Derrick Mason, Hines Ward, Roddy White
Upside gambles: Anthony Gonzalez, Santonio Holmes, Domenik Hixon, DeSean Jackson, Steve Breaston
Bad picks: all Dolphins, Marvin Harrison, all Titans, Bobby Wade, Kevin Curtis

Tight End

Big upside: Dallas Clark -- He developed into the most explosive tight end in football down the stretch, and the Colts -- as I said above -- have a desirable pass matchup.
Bust: Todd Heap -- He's just not reliable anymore. Don't fall in love with the name recognition.

The only other good pick: Antonio Gates
Especially bad picks: Visanthe Shiancoe, Heath Miller, Anthony Fasano

Defense/ST

Big upside: Giants
Bust: Vikings - Noticing a theme? I believe the Vikes are getting bounced in their first game, and they won't be stopping the Eagles' passing attack much in that game. You might get a few sacks via Jared Allen, but overall this is not a great play.

Best of the rest: Ravens, Steelers, Eagles
Worst of the rest: Cardinals, Falcons, Chargers

Kicker

Good picks: Jason Elam, John Carney, Matt Stover, Neil Rackers, David Akers, Rob Bironas
Poor picks: Ryan Longwell, Jeff Reed

As always, feel free to ask specific questions, and we'll reply with answers.