No Point Calling Cards Contenders Yet

There are many positives about Rick Pitino. The man could recruit the ghost of Adolph Rupp into a Louisville uniform, his defenses could make a polar bear sweat, and his perfectly coiffed hair could survive a nuclear attack or a night out with Michael Irvin.

But, if he is to be judged by his Louisville Cardinals team, Rick Pitino is not the kind of man who believes in an early start.

Think sleep in till, noon, hit snooze and roll over, show up 15 minutes late to first period. College basketball season starts in November, but yet again Pitino's teams wait until the New Year's bubbly pops to really get rolling. Year. After year. After year.

So naturally after Saturday's win against Pitt and the nation in the mood for inauguration, these late-arriving Cardinals have been crowned again as national title contenders.

But despite the win over No. 1, Bono and will.i.am can stay in the green room. These Cardinals might not be for real.

At least, not as title contenders. Not yet.

Which isn't to say there isn't plenty right about Louisville.

This Cardinals' defense couldn't turn up the heat anymore if they played every game in a tanning booth set to Bahama glow. They're No. 1 in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency, and that's not even particularly close. The Cardinals have an 80.3 defensive efficiency rating, which means that if the Cardinals give you 100 possessions, you'll manage about 80 points and a headache the size of Freedom Hall.

Pitino has mixed in a series of pressing defenses, and, with guards Andre McGee and Preston Knowles coming off the bench, and a few weeks over the holidays to hammer in his schemes without the NCAA's practice limitation, the Cardinals now just plain wear the sweat out of you.

But here's the problem. Defense is only half the equation. Even Tiger Woods can't do all that much if you make him play every hole with a putter.

Louisville's offensive efficiency ranks 102nd in the nation at 105 points per 100 possessions, putting the Cardinals squarely between Lamar and TCU. These, of course, are two teams whose postseason hopes, if they don't win their conference, consist of wondering if the CBI is still around.

Coupled with their stifling defense, the Cardinals' offense is enough of a threat to finish on the happy side of .500 in the Big East and comfortably make the NCAA Tournament. But, if recent history is any guide, to get from where they are to where they'd need to be to challenge for a national title, they need their own federal bailout just to cover cab fare, despite Saturday's win.

In the past five seasons, the national champion has, on average, ranked second in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency. Twice, the national champion has had the nation's best offense, twice the second and once the fourth.

Even making the Final Four is one Yao-sized reach with Louisville's numbers. Only five of the last 20 Final Four teams have ranked outside of the top seven, and only two, cinderella George Mason and LSU, both in the tumultuous 2006 tournament, have been outside the top 25. But even adding George Mason (49th) and LSU (50th) doesn't get you to the Cardinals' ranking.

And while defense might win championships, nothing gets you booted out of the NCAA Tournament quite like a 10-minute scoreless streak.

Of course, it's just January and Pitino's club does have several valuable pieces on offense. Terrence Williams is one of the best passing forwards in college basketball and leads the team in assists while freshman pivot Samardo Samuels just keeps getting better. And Earl Clark has a sense of timing that even Rolex might be envious of.

But point guard play is sandbagging these Cardinals

Despite his game-winning heroics against Kentucky, the only thing junior Edgar Sosa continues to lead the Cardinals in, and perhaps all of the NCAA, is the number of times he's been called enigmatic. The point guard is suffering through his worst season at Louisville with an arctic 82.3 offensive rating, which is caused in part by the one thing he does lead the Cardinals in, turnover rate. Sosa commits turnovers on 28.5 percent of the possessions he uses, which, even for a player who creates as much offense as Sosa, is a blemish the size of Louisville. Sosa's assist-to-turnover ratio is just slightly on the positive side, and, should you remove his 10 assist, one turnover performance against lowly Morehead State in the season opener, his assist-to-turnover ratio is .84.

Even since his breakout game against Kentucky, Sosa's assist-to-turnover ratio is .82.

And point guards, like over-produced, saccharine player narratives aired during Final Four halftimes, are a national championship requirement. No team since at least 1994 has won a national title with a point guard averaging more turnovers than assists. (And that mark likely extends well before 1994, but the data is a bit scarce prior to Al Gore working his magic on the Internet).

Sosa's shooting, despite the long game-winner against Kentucky, hasn't much helped either. His effective field goal percentage (which gives credit for the added value of a made 3-pointer versus a two-point basket) is 40.8, the worst among Louisville's regulars. Since the Kentucky game, he's hit just 39 percent of his total field goals and is 3-of-16 behind the arc.

The Cardinals have backup options for Sosa, but neither McGee, Knowles or Jerry Smith are as adept at creating offense.

So for Louisville, the road to the Final Four means one crucial pit stop. Solving the enigma.

Do that, and work on a sub-par free-throw shooting number, and they should touch up a resume, which, if not quite something George O'Leary cooked up, deserves a little bit of scrutiny. True, the Cardinals beat Pitt, but they only faced 20 minutes of Panther star DeJuan Blair. Pitt was a plus-eight with Blair in the game and a negative-14 without him. (Although the more important 20 from this game might've been the 20 turnovers the Cardinals' pressure defense created, including six by the usually unflappable Levance Fields). But it's a good reminder not to put too much stock into any one game.

Their only quality win away from home was over Villanova, a game whose conclusion couldn't have been uglier if Sloth from the Goonies (or Kirsten Dunst) had played all five positions for the Wildcats. Villanova hit just six of its final 14 free throws over the last 8 ½, minutes, including two with less than five seconds left, and finished the 61-60 loss with a pair of close-in misses by Dante Cunningham.

Of course, none of which should deny Louisville a place somewhere around the top 10 teams in the nation. They've done what no other team has done, toppled Pitt and its defense alone could hound the selection committee into turning over a bid.

But are they necessarily the Final Four contenders we thought at the start of the year?

That's a little tougher to say.

Because, despite early returns, Pitino and the Cardinals are, like usual, still running a little behind schedule.