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Rivalry for the Ages: Breaking Down Nadal-Federer Australian Open Final

Jan 31, 2009 – 9:00 PM
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Tom Herrera

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So it all comes down to this. No other match would have been more fitting. Top-ranked Rafael Nadal advances to another final against rival Roger Federer, who is trying to equal Pete Sampras' record of 14 Grand Slam singles titles. While the hype machine has been focused on the Super Bowl, in my mind, this main event will pack better pure action than Steelers-Cardinals can offer.

It'll be the seventh time Rafa and Roger go head-to-head to decide a Grand Slam, but this one has more edge than ever, especially after last year's epic five-set breakthrough for Nadal at Wimbledon. It also might be Nadal's toughest test yet; he looked invincible throughout most of the tournament, but needed five hours and 14 minutes to dispense of Fernando Verdasco in the semifinals. The five-set marathon brought the Spaniard to tears, and now he has to face a Federer full of confidence -- fresh off his domination of Andy Roddick.

We turn to the roundtable format to debate where Nadal can recover for his first Grand Slam final on a hard court, and thwart Federer's shot at history in the process.

Your thoughts?

Bryan Tucker: Nadal has beaten Federer the last two times they have squared off in a Grand Slam final, and I fully expect him to make it three in a row in the wee hours Sunday morning. Yes, Nadal did have a grueling marathon match against Verdasco in the semis, but that's the first time in the tournament he's played more than three sets. The 22-year-old will run over Federer for his sixth Grand Slam title in four sets.

Chris Burke: Nadal had Federer's number all of last year, obviously capped by that Homer-worthy epic at Wimbledon. Both players have had one match where they've looked pretty vulnerable -- Federer in the fourth round against Tomas Berdych, and Nadal the other night against Verdasco. The timing there is advantage: Federer. Since he dropped the first two sets against Berdych, he's just rolled and beat Juan Martin del Potro and Roddick like rented mules. And not even good, quality rented mules that you enjoy riding, but like a rented mule that gets lost and won't do what he's instructed and occasionally tries to take a nap. Federer wins, and I won't be surprised if it's in less than five sets.

Tom Herrera: I think you spend a little too much time with mules in general, but I'm going with Federer as well. Early on, I firmly believed Nadal was the sharpest player in the tournament. He's playing aggressively and out to prove something. Now, after that seemingly never-ending contest with Verdasco, you have to wonder if Nadal will have the energy to play with the same fervor as he did throughout most of the tourney. Fedi has been resting since Thursday, while Rafa is going to be playing his first hard-court Grand Slam ever. It should be another tight battle in sports' best rivalry, with Federer (aka Andre Marshall's god) earning his 14th Grand Slam title when all the sweat has dried.

Will Brinson: It's amazing to me how quickly we are to sink the good ship Federer (or strap him onto an old mule and send him into the mountains, if you prefer) simply because of two wins by Nadal.

The guy's still by far and away the most dominant tennis player of the past ten years. And I think he will remind everyone why today/tomorrow/whatever depending on your schedule. Federer FTW.

Mark Hasty: They're totally different, Federer and Nadal, yet they both play at such a high level it almost makes you wonder why the rest of the field even bothers to show up. Federer is so smooth he doesn't seem like he's been coached so much as he's been engineered. Nadal is more flamboyant, to be sure. A lot of people seem to be wondering whether the five-hour match with Verdasco and the wilting heat have emptied Nadal's tank, but he's a highly trained athlete who can bounce back from stuff that would send mere mortals to bed for a few days. That, and he's 22 years old. He'll be fine. I think Nadal wins in five sets, and I can't wait to watch.

Shane Bacon: It is seldom that I find Brinson's commentary spot on, but this is one of those times.

Federer had a tough 2008 and now he is history? If you've watched any of these matches thus far, you'd probably reconsider.

It was a tough semifinal for Nadal and it is tough to bring it for consecutive matches when you basically just beat yourself up for five hours against a fellow countryman. Federer looks like he has it once more, and if anyone can hit ground strokes with Fist Pump, it is Roger. I think Mr. Army Knife takes him down in four sets and regains the title as Best Tennis Player Ever.

So who do you think will win this classic? Lend your opinion in the comments below.



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