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TAMPA, Fla. -- I believe Cris Carter will one day be inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame. But in talking to some Hall of Fame voters both before and after Saturday's selection meeting, I also believe that Carter, like fellow possession receiver Art Monk before him, will have a long wait before enshrinement in Canton.
When I talked to some Hall of Fame voters before the selection meeting, it sounded like Carter would be a very close call: Some voters said his raw numbers alone (1,101 catches,130 receiving touchdowns and 13,899 receiving yards) were enough to get him in, while there was a minority opinion that he didn't make enough big plays.
But I've heard from a couple of Hall of Fame voters after the meeting who said there is a fair amount of anti-Carter sentiment in the room when the 44 voters get together. Carter made it past the first round of voting, when the field of 15 candidates was cut to 10, but not past the second round of voting, when the 10 semifinalists were cut to five finalists. (Senior candidates are voted on separately.)
It also appears that some voters were persuaded during the meeting to vote "no" on Carter and "yes" on Bills owner Ralph Wilson. Jim Trotter of SI.com writes of Wilson, "there was a groundswell of support once his candidacy was discussed, particularly with the coming season representing the 50th anniversary of the AFL."
I like and respect the Hall of Fame voters I know, but that's just stupid. The fact that the coming season will be the 50th since the AFL began should have no bearing on Wilson's candidacy. And yet all of the finalists are competing against each other for a limited number of slots, which means this year being the 50th anniversary of the AFL hurt Carter's candidacy.
It's not going to get any easier for Carter. Next year two of the Hall of Fame spots will be taken by Jerry Rice and Emmitt Smith, both of whom become eligible for the first time. Carter will also be hurt by the fact that Tim Brown, whose statistics are similar to Carter's, becomes eligible next year. I don't think Brown is getting in ahead of Carter, but if even a few voters pick Brown over Carter, that hurts Carter's chances even more.
And yet I do think Carter is eventually getting in. Just as Monk finally got in after many years of being voted down, I believe that eventually enough voters will come around on Carter to get him a bust in Canton. But it's not going to happen in 2010.
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