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Ervin Santana's performance in 2008 could be called a "breakout," but that would be borderline insulting to the pitching work he did throughout the year, en route to posting 219 IP, 16 wins, 214 strikeouts, a 3.49 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP. That stat line was the primary reason Santana was offered, and signed, a four year, $30 million contract to continue pitching for the Angels. He left a spring start early, though, and now, following an MRI on his elbow, it appears he has a sprained medial collateral ligament in his elbow and will start the season on the disabled list.
Angels' manager Mike Scioscia indicated that it would be a "shorter window" for Santana to begin throwing the ball, but the fact remains that this, on top of his 200+ innings pitched from last year, is pretty disconcerting for Angels fans and fantasy owners alike.
Would I pass on Ervin for 2009? Well, no. Injuries are an excellent way to pick up value during fantasy drafts. Santana's status as a top-25 pitcher naturally takes a tremendous hit; over the past week or so, he's been drafted in the sixth and seventh rounds depending on your league. That's obviously going to change now.
The reality is though, that even before the injury, Santana was due to slide back a little bit in his 2009 performance. Which means, coupled with the fact that he is and elite-level pitcher, all of a sudden you're looking at a pretty good value for the 2009 season.
Yeah, Santana logged a ton of innings last year, and yeah, elbow injuries are terrifying, but there's a very good chance now that you can get him after the 10th round ... which sounds suspiciously closer to a 2008 draft than it really should. In other words, discount Santana, and discount him properly: but don't totally avoid him when planning your draft this year and actually consider targeting him if the rest of your league appears scared of the 2008 breakout.
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