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So here we are again. We just can't escape the Alex Rodriguez talk. Now he's having surgery, but it's not the full-blown miss-most-of-the-season surgery. He's having a "quick fix" type deal before getting everything fixed after the season.Josh Alper already covered it for MLB 'House, and it looks like A-Rod will be missing about two months of major league action. So, four months of A-Rod compared to about six months of every other third baseman in baseball -- this plummets his fantasy stock.
If you expect A-Rod to put up "normal" numbers by his standards, you just need to figure that he'll be reaching two-thirds of his counting stats this season. Having a partially repaired hip won't help his stolen base numbers, either. Let's set the projections at: a .300 average, 27 home runs, 85 RBI, and 75 runs. I think we have to just expect zero steals and assume any swipes this season are gravy. So, looking at the above numbers, where to slot him?
• Well, obviously David Wright is head-and-shoulders above those numbers. So much so, that I'd again say he's got to be the No. 1 pick -- narrowly edging out Hanley Ramirez.
• Evan Longoria, Aramis Ramirez, Kevin Youkilis, and Chipper Jones should be taken above A-Rod, but with Jones we're getting close. He hasn't played more than 137 games since 2003. The difference, though, is we already know A-Rod is missing two months. It's possible Chipper goes the whole season healthy.
• I'm expecting similar numbers from Garrett Atkins to what I posted above as A-Rod's projections. A-Rod has a ton more upside, but Atkins is healthy. We'll slot A-Rod just a nose ahead of Atkins, but I won't blame those who would rather have Atkins. After all, my projected numbers above are assuming he doesn't miss any additional time, once he gets back on the field, and that he'll still have that great power.
• Finally, this is assuming you have a format where the stats accumulate. If you play in a weekly head-to-head format, you've got to have someone playing third base for you for the first two months of the season. There are options (as I outlined in the last two paragraphs here) if you want to draft A-Rod and sit on him. I certainly wouldn't blame anyone for avoiding him altogether, though.
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