Fantasy Baseball Preview: The Orioles

Fantasy baseball draft season is coming, so you best be prepared by delving through every major player on each team. Fantasy FanHouse is here to help with a quick once-over.

Meet the ...
Team who just can't buy a break. They can't get any big names to sign with them (Mark Teixeira, A.J. Burnett), they are getting majorly outspent by the two big boys in the division, and the Rays skyrocketed past them last season due to an impressive franchise turnaround. I've seen people tout these guys as the "2009 version of the Rays." My reply? You have got to be kidding me. There's not near enough here for a run at .500, much less the World Series.

The Breakout
Adam Jones has all the tools to be a superstar in this league. He's fast, a smooth defender, has power, and has the potential to hit for a high batting average. His last full year in the minors, for example, he hit .314 with 25 home runs, 84 RBI, 75 runs, and eight stolen bases. This was in 101 games.

Jones has accumulated 645 major league plate appearances, including close to a full slate last season. He's turning 24 this season. He's nearing the time when his skills will start to take over. Granted, he's likely not in line for a full-scale blow up, but he's going to take significant steps forward this season.

The main thing holding him back last year was consistency. He had an .804 OPS in June, but only .585 in May. He was decent to good in July, but atrocious in September. Now that he's had a year to adjust to the grind and familiarize himself with the majors, things will start to get a bit more consistent. Plus, he was seeing most pitchers for the first time last season. That is a huge advantage for the pitcher. Now, he's gotten some experience and knows what to expect.

The Bust
I'm really having a hard time figuring out what's going on with Ty Wigginton. I understand he hit 23 bombs in only 386 at-bats last season, but he doesn't figure to get everyday playing time this time around, either. The O's have young outfielders they wish to develop, and he's not going to pose a significant enough upgrade over Aubrey Huff, Melvin Mora, or Luke Scott to find his way into the lineup at 1B, 3B, or DH often enough to warrant where he's being taken.

On MDC's ADP list, he's being picked one overall spot behind Adrian Beltre. He's being picked in front of Mark Reynolds (more than 50 picks, in fact). Am I missing something? He's a career .270 part-time player who doesn't run. He hits home runs. Ok, so do a lot of guys. In fact, many hit more than 24 a season (his career high). At 31 this year, he gets to face pretty solid divisional starting pitching from the Red Sox, Yanks, and Rays -- not to mention Roy Halladay of the Jays. Again, I'm lost as to his relatively lofty draft position.

The Lineup
1. Brian Roberts, 2B
2. Adam Jones, CF
3. Nick Markakis, RF
4. Aubrey Huff, 1B
5. Melvin Mora, 3B
6. Luke Scott, DH
7. Gregg Zaun, C
8. Cesar Izturis, SS
9. Felix Pie, LF

Wigginton and Ryan Freel will find their way onto the field for significant playing time, as well. Oh, and I don't know if you've heard of this kid named Matt Wieters. He's a catcher, and he's supposed to be pretty good. My bet is that he starts the season in triple-A, but gets the call by mid-May. When that happens, he fits right into Zaun's lineup spot and completely takes the job over.

The Rotation
1. Jeremy Guthrie
2. Koji Uehara
3. Rich Hill
4. Mark Hendrickson
5. Radhames Liz

The Bullpen
CL - George Sherrill / Chris Ray
SU - no one who is fantasy relevant

The Skinny
• There are more stay-away guys here than ones you definitely want to own.

• Huff's a weird case. He was a stud for two years (when he was 26 and 27), average for three, and then all of a sudden became a stud again in 2008 as a 31 year-old. Can you count on another 30 home run, 100 RBI season? Absolutely not. Is it possible you'll see one? Absolutely. Good luck!

• Let me tell you a little something about Rich Hill. I know some stat-heads who don't actually watch games love this guy. They have for years because he rang up big strikeout totals in the minors. As someone who has seen, and been frustrated by, him throughout his big league career, I am begging you to pass on him. He's getting run as a sleeper in AL-only leagues from some other sites, and I'm telling you that this is a mistake. He sucks.

• First of all, you can't be a 29-year-old prospect. You just can't, so he's not a prospect. Secondly, people like to bring up his magical 2007 season, but it wasn't that great. He went for 11 wins, a 3.92 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and 183 strikeouts in 195 innings. That's a good year, but I'm seeing people talk about it like he was an elite option. He was serviceable. You know who he faced that year? Competition from the NL Central, where the Cubs took the division with 85 wins. Actually, he went 7-7 with a 4.52 ERA in his last 26 starts, so a hot start was what propelled him to being better than average. Now he's getting to face the Yankees, Rays, and Red Sox regularly? Can you even defend him as a "breakout" pick with a straight face? He's mentally weak, and he's going to kill your fantasy team if you put any faith in him whatsoever. Avoid at all costs. I'll be back at the end of the year to gloat when he falls flat on his face.

• Don't fall for Pie either. He's a poor-man's Corey Patterson. At least Patterson actually displayed power and a decent stolen base percentage. Pie's only hit 62 home runs in more than 2,500 minor league at-bats. He's only been successful on 63 percent of his minor league stolen base attempts. How that translates to a productive major league fantasy player is beyond me. He's not worth a roster spot in any league. Any league.

• It's going to be Ray taking the ball in the ninth over Sherrill sooner rather than later this season. Sherrill was a nice story last season, but Ray is younger, has better stuff, and doesn't let near as many guys on base.

• Look, I'm excited to see Wieters make it to the bigs this season, too, but he's getting far too much run. I actually took part in this hype over a month ago, but since then it's gotten excessive. He's not going to just enter the league and become Mike Piazza. There will be a growing process. Take it easy on him and let him fall into the teens of catchers in your draft.

• Finally, did you know Markakis is only 25? He's already logged three full seasons. His rate stats (batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage) have all risen progressively each of those three seasons. His walks have grown from 43 to 99 in just two years. He's growing into a complete hitter. Now that there is better lineup protection around him, he'll start getting better pitches to hit. Though he likely doesn't have enough power to ever hit more than 30 home runs, he can get you close. He's a category filler as well. It's very reasonable to expect .320 with 27 homers, 100 RBI, 100 runs, and 15 steals this year due to natural progression.