Tribe Hoping Things Even Out in '09

FanHouse continues its 2009 MLB Preview with a look at the Cleveland Indians.

Coming off a 96-win season in 2007, the Indians were expected to be one of the stronger teams in the AL last year. Cleveland looked like it was going to compete with the Tigers all year for the division crown. They had Victor Martinez, one of the best catchers in the league, along with a 1-2 punch of CC Sabathia and Fausto Carmona atop the rotation. As always, there were some concerns, including fifth starter Cliff Lee, whose 2007 ERA was 6.29. But on the whole, it looked like it was going to be a pretty good year.

As was the case throughout the AL Central, things didn't quite go according to plan. The Tribe saw three of their best players miss significant time due to injury, and finished a disappointing third in the division at 81-81.

There were some bright spots, with Lee's shocking Cy Young performance topping the list. Looking forward to 2009, the Indians hope they can combine the breakout years from guys like Lee and Shin-Soo Choo with more effective and healthy performances from the guys who got them one win away from the World Series just two years ago.

Coming and Going

Lineup
1.	Grady Sizemore	CF
2.	Mark DeRosa	3B
3.	Travis Hafner	DH
4.	Victor Martinez	C
5.	Jhonny Peralta	SS
6.	Shin-Soo Choo	RF
7.	Ryan Garko	1B
8.	Ben Francisco	LF
9.	Asdrubal Cabrera	SS
Pitching Staff
1.	Cliff Lee	L
2.	Fausto Carmona	R
3.	Aaron Laffey	L
4.	Carl Pavano	R
5.	Antony Reyes	R
CL	Kerry Wood	R

In: Kerry Wood, RP (free agency); Mark DeRosa, 2B/3B (trade); Joe Smith, RP (trade); Carl Pavano, SP (free agency); Luis Valbuena, 2B (trade)
Out: Franklin Gutierrez, OF (trade); Sal Fasano (free agency)

Storylines

Staying on the Field ...
Injuries and disappointing performances did the Indians in last year. In a few cases it was a combination of the two. Martinez was nowhere near his normal self before going on the disabled list with an elbow injury in June. Kelly Shoppach did a great job in his place, but the Indians are really at an advantage if both of their catchers are performing up to their potential.

The Fall of Pronk ...
While Martinez's performance after returning in late August was encouraging, there was no such light at the end of the tunnel for Travis Hafner. Since back-to-back top 10 MVP finishes in '05 and '06, Hafner has really fallen off a cliff; he finished last year with a 65 OPS+ in just 233 plate appearances. He spent most of the year on the DL with a shoulder injury. The Indians are hopeful his shoulder is at full strength, but they really don't know what to expect from their DH.

Odds and Evens ...
The Indians have seen their fortunes flop back and forth over the last four years, with excellent seasons in '05 and '07 but disappointing campaigns in '06 and '08. There are many reasons for that -- none of them having to do with the final digit of the year -- and the performance of the bullpen is as the top of the list. Their 'pen was awesome in '05 (2.80 ERA) and a strength in '07 (3.75 ERA), but fell apart last year, posting a collective 5.13 ERA. Relivers are a tough breed to predict, but this season's corps looks like one of the strongest in the league with the additions of Wood and Smith. Those two join Rafael Perez, Jensen Lewis, and Rafael Betancourt, among others, in a very deep bullpen.

Finding the Right Five ...
The Indians will have no trouble fielding a five-man rotation -- along with the starters listed above, David Huff, Jeremy Sowers, Zach Jackson, and Scott Lewis are all in the mix. The problem is that after Lee and Carmona, the quality really falls off. There are plenty of fifth starters to be found in that group, but no clear No. 3s or No. 4s. For Cleveland to succeed this year, they're going to need at least one or two of those guys to pleasantly surprise them, exceeding expectations and performing at a league-average level. It'd be insane to expect someone to do what Lee did in '08, but that's the idea here; and if it doesn't happen, they all know there's someone chomping at the bit to take their spot.

2009 Outlook

Why You Should Watch: The Indians are fortunate to be in the AL Central, rather than the East. Were they in the latter division, they'd be looking at a probably fourth place finish; as it stands, they're the favorites in the Central. However, it's only by a small margin, and it wouldn't be shocking to see any of the five teams in the mix come September. If they get bounce back years from Martinez, Hafner, and Carmona, they could easily win 90+ games; but if those guys continue to disappoint, and nobody emerges from the back end of the rotation, it wouldn't be shocking if they failed to break .500.

What Defines Success: Anything short of a division title would have to be considered a disappointment. By adding DeRosa and Wood, they both plugged two obvious holes and showed that they're willing to spend a little to take a shot this year. Once they get to October they'll have a good chance of advancing, as they'll be able to hide the weakness that is the back end of their rotation. But getting there isn't going to be easy; every team in the Central has flaws, and the Tribe certainly doesn't escape that distinction.

Related Links

- Better Know a Prospect: Cleveland Indians