Houston, We Have a Problem

FanHouse continues its 2009 MLB Preview with a look at the Houston Astros.

Every year, it seems like there's a team or two that really defies their Pythagorean record and finishes with a record either much better or worse than their run differential suggests. In 2006, the Indians finished 78-84 despite scoring nearly 100 runs more than they allowed. In 2007, they came one win away from the World Series. In that same 2007 season, the Diamondbacks won 90 games despite scoring about as many runs as they allowed. Last year, they only won 82 games.

You can see where this is going. The Astros were 86-75 last year despite allowing 743 runs and only scoring 712. They've lost some players to free agency this winter, their key players are getting older and there's absolutely no help coming from the minor leagues. The Astros' front office and their fans may think that their hot second half last year foretold of good things to come, but it was probably just abnormally goodluck. The Astros are going to be bad this year.

Lineup
1.	Michael Bourn	CF
2.	Kazuo Matsui	2B
3.	Lance Berkman	1B
4.	Carlos Lee	LF
5.	Miguel Tejada	SS
6.	Hunter Pence	RF
7.	Ivan Rodriguez	C
8.	Geoff Blum	3B
9.	Pitcher's Spot	P
Pitching Staff
1.	Roy Oswalt	R
2.	Wandy Rodriguez	L
3.	Brandon Backe	R
4.	Mike Hampton	L
5.	Brian Moehler	R
CL	Jose Valverde	R

Coming and Going

In: Ivan Rodriguez, C (free agency); Mike Hampton, P (free agency); Jason Michaels, OF (free agency)
Out: Randy Wolf, SP (free agency); Ty Wigginton, IF (non-tender); Shawn Chacon, P (choke-slammed the GM); Brad Ausmus, C (free agency); Aaron Boone, IF (injury)

Storylines

The Unstoppable March of Time ...
Roy Oswalt is 31, Lance Berkman, Carlos Lee, and Kaz Matsui are 33 and Miguel Tejada is 35. This is not a team that's getting any younger, and that's one of the biggest problems facing the Astros this year. You might argue that besides Tejada, no one is that old, but that's being purposefully ignorant.

Tejada's offense has been dropping steadily for the past four seasons and he declined badly in his first year in Houston. Matsui has never played in more than 114 games in a season. Berkman only hit seven home runs after the All-Star break last year. Injuries finally caught up to Lee. Of the group, Oswalt is the only one that doesn't seem to be slowing down.

The aging of the Astros is really the biggest problem when I look at what they did last year. If they were a young team that had overachieved and finished with a better record than their run differential suggested, it might be a sign of better things to come. The Astros, though, aren't likely to improve on that run differential from last year because their key players just aren't at an age that they're likely to keep getting better. In fact, it's likely that several of them are going to keep dropping off this year.

Who's the Boss? ...
It's easy to laugh at Ed Wade for the job he's done as Houston's GM. In 2008, he took over a team that looked poised for a huge year in the majors and traded the few remaining prospects in the organization for Miguel Tejada, Michael Bourn, Randy Wolf, LaTroy Hawkins, and Jose Valverde. For all of this hand-waving and chair-shuffling, Wade's team missed the playoffs.

In response to their near miss, the Astros went out and signed Mike Hampton and Pudge Rodriguez. If Wade were to act any more like a parody of himself at this point, he'd be Brian Sabean. The real question, though, is whether Wade is running his team like there's no tomorrow because he thinks it's a great idea, or if he's doing it because it's what owner Drayton McLane wants.

McLane is a notoriously hands-on owner who handcuffed his entire franchise when Roger Clemens played his, "I'm going to wait until May to pick a team" game in 2006 and 2007, then blamed Tim Purpura for the struggles that resulted from that saga. So is McLane behind the scenes ordering Wade to keep trying to contend with a roster that can't contend? And what happens to Wade if that's the case and the wheels fall off the Astros this year? Does he become McLane's next fall guy?

The 2003 All-Stars ...
Can you imagine how awesome a team made up of Pudge, Mike Hampton, Lance Berkman, Roy Oswalt and Carlos Lee would've seemed five or six years ago? And what if the Astros come through and add Pedro Martinez to the mix like they were rumored to do last week? Look out.

Of course, going back to the first storyline, that's the problem. These guys, especially Hampton and Pudge, who are the two biggest off-season signings for Houston, are much older now than they were in their prime and they're starting to break down. Hampton's only made 25 starts since 2004. Pudge hasn't been a good hitter since his first year in Detroit. What the Astros really need at this point is a Fountain of Youth.

2009 Outlook

Why You Should Watch: Do you like trainwrecks? Do you like watching players that used to be great and are past their prime? Do you like Roy Oswalt? Then watch the Astros.

What Defines Success: A playoff spot. That's the problem in Houston right now. It has an old roster that just keeps getting older and there's no appreciable help coming in the minor leagues. The Astros' choices right now are to dismantle and rebuild, or arm up, cross their fingers, and hope for the best. They're not dismantling and things look even bleaker further down the road, so the only way they succeed this year is if they put together another improbable run at a playoff spot and actually finish the job this time.

Related Links

- Fantasy Baseball Preview: The Old Guard
- Better Know a Prospect: Houston Astros