Fork 'Em: Memphis Grizzlies

As teams get eliminated from the 2009 NBA playoff picture, Fork 'Em figures out what went wrong.

"The road to hell is paved with works-in-progress." -Philippe de Comines

It's also paved with the 2008-2009 Memphis Grizzlies and their fans.

The Grizzlies entered the season with a bizarre self-awareness. They were a young team with a coach that preached speed and aggression, but who had been told by his boss to instill defense, or else. They had lost their longtime franchise player in a rebuilding trade that resulted in much of the league mocking them, then pulled off a brilliant draft day trade to acquire O.J. Mayo. They had a deep set of guards, a great combination of young frontcourt players, returning superstar Rudy Gay, and a possible superstar in O.J. Mayo. And they were still expected to only win only 20-25 games.

Well, Marc Gasol was better than advertised. O.J. Mayo was a revelation. Mike Conley finally seemed to understand the meaning of "professional basketball player." There was significant defensive improvement, and certainly a closer unit.

And they're still going to end up winning fewer than 20 games.

So how did we get here?

I turned to the best Grizzlies blog on the planet to answer that one, and Josh Coleman from 3 Shades of Blue was kind enough to get back to me with his thoughts on how the Grizzlies fell apart with such potential this season.

1. How did we get here?

We got here by putting together an unbalanced team that has lots of young talent, but very little low post scoring or perimeter shooting. But both of those things can (and should) be addressed in the draft and free agency, as well as in potential trades, so I expect those issues to be resolved heading into training camp next year. The fact that there was an open battle for point guard that was never really resolved, but somehow stretched halfway through the season didn't help matters either. The idea that it didn't matter if Mike Conley or Kyle Lowry started because they were both going to get 24 mpg is asinine at best, flat-out stupid at worst.

Also, coming off back-to-back 22 win seasons is a difficult thing to accept for some of these young players. Other than Marc Gasol and Conley, the rest of the players seem to have become exhausted due to excessive minutes, the rookie wall or poor conditioning...or they simply aren't playing all out every night. That will be up to Chris Wallace and Lionel Hollins to sort out.

2. Was firing Marc Iavaroni the right move?

It certainly wasn't the wrong move. After he was let go, more and more information came out about how directionless the team was in practices, which we fans had noticed during games. The team didn't have an identity, so it was incredibly difficult to point out what the specific problems were that needed to be fixed. Everything was simply generalized to the point of knowing that both the offensive and defensive philosophies weren't working. When that occurs, coupled with the noticeable lack of hustle, energy and determination from the players, the coach will always be the one to take the fall.

I think that firing Marc Iavaroni was the correct move...just as I thought that hiring him was the correct move at the time it was done. Some assistants just aren't cut out to be head coaches (especially for a team that has seen as much fluctuation as this one has), but until they are given that opportunity, you just don't know. He seemed to be a coach similar to Rick Adelman to me. That is, a coach who was more comfortable with a veteran team looking to make the playoffs, rather than a young team looking to climb back to respectability. Ivy will pop back up as an assistant soon enough. I've heard rumblings that he'll be joining the Toronto Raptors as a consultant in the near future, and I'm happy for him.

3. Is there hope in Memphis, still?

Absolutely. With a nucleus (don't call them a "core") of Mike Conley, O.J. Mayo, Rudy Gay, Marc Gasol, Darko Milicic and Darrell Arthur, the Grizzlies either have enough young talent to make some noise when they develop or gel (or gelvelop as one ardent Grizz fan puts it)...or they have some mighty attractive trade pieces if Conley and Mayo or Mayo and Gay don't complement each other properly. They will have 3 picks in the top 35 of the upcoming draft and a boatload of cap space to play with. There is always hope if you are willing to look to the positives instead of accentuating the negatives.

4. Does Rudy Gay have to go?

Possibly...but not until his rookie contract is nearing an end. While there is a group of fans that believe that Rudy won't be worth the money he'll command on the free agent market, that time hasn't arrived yet, so there is no reason to trade him while he is still outperforming his contract, unless a deal presents itself that is just too good to pass up, of course.

I haven't made up my mind about how well he fits with this team, but I do know that if they get a solid PF this offseason in the 18/8 mode who can play solid defense, then a Shane Battier or Bruce Bowen type of SF who plays tough defense, makes all the little plays and doesn't demand the ball probably makes a lot more sense than Rudy Gay does going forward if playoff success is the goal. In my opinion Rudy is a #2 option at best on a legitimate contender, but probably fits as a #3 option best. Think of someone like James Worthy on those Showtime Lakers teams or even Ray Allen on the current Celtics squad.

He can go off for big points when needed, but you don't really rely on him to score 25+ night in and night out. That's what I see Rudy being most comfortable doing. He'll take and make big shots, but he isn't going to carry a team on his own.

So there you have it. While you can definitely say that Memphis is in a better place now than it was at the end of last season, there are still just as many questions to answer. Despite starting the year with Javaris Crittenton, Kyle Lowry, and Mike Conley, the Grizzlies still aren't confident in who their point guard of the future is, even with Lowry's departure to Houston. They still need a reliable interior scorer (don't we all?) and at some point, Rudy Gay is going to have to make up his mind whether he's the franchise or an excellent #2. And lingering over all of it is the eternal question of whether to hand the point reins over to O.J. Mayo.

Mayo has been pushed as a point guard since he was drafted, even though it's a terrible fit for him. He doesn't work well bringing the ball up the floor. His passing is best termed as "good for a shooting guard." His explosiveness isn't to a point where he can blow past elite point guards. And his handle has long periods of time where it was crafted from a combination of stone, grease, and Bruce Willis' solo album. Yet in the absence of a any sort of consistency from Conley, and with how brilliant Mayo's been for stretches this season with the ball in his hands, the temptation is natural. But going with Mayo can only lead to more frustration. It means finding a suitable two-guard, who will almost certainly not flow with Mayo's game. And that means neglecting the frontcourt scoring issues. How the Grizzlies handle this situation will determine their success over the next five years.

Other than that, the Grizzlies are still young enough to let them percolate a little. Let them simmer for another summer, see if you can't add some significant additions in draft or free agency in a down year for free agents. But if the rumors are true that owner Michael Heisley is more concerned with keeping payroll down, this could have been the last year of hope for a franchise circling the tubes.