Joe Saunders Looks Like Ace ... So Far

Joe Saunders was already going to face skepticism about whether he could repeat his 2008 season, and now he's going to have to do it as the lead dog in the injury-riddled Angels rotation.

Saunders got off to a good start, absolutely dominating the A's lineup for 6 2/3 innings in the Angels' season-opening 3-0 victory. The A's, with a brand new lineup including Orlando Cabrera, Jason Giambi and Matt Holliday, did not even get a runner to third.

Still, is Saunders for real?

Angels 3, Athletics 0: Recap | Box Score | Full Scoreboard

Last season Saunders was 17-7 with a 3.41 ERA, but a deeper look reveals some red flags.

Mainly, there was the .267 average on balls in play against him (BABIP). Without getting too stat-geeky, the logic is that pitchers have no control over what happens to the ball when it's put in play, so all of them should end up allowing about the same average (.290ish) over the long haul. Pitchers who are way above or below that number got unlucky or lucky, and are likely to regress toward the mean over the long run.

Translation: Saunders didn't see his share of bloopers fall in, and too many line drives found gloves. This year things figure to go the other way on him.

Another number to watch is his contact percentage, which tells how often hitters can put the wood on his pitches. Last year Saunders was in the bottom third of major league pitchers with at least 150 innings, allowing hitters to put the bat on 84 percent of his pitches. The pitchers with the best pure "stuff" miss bats.

Now, it's possible Saunders has learned some things and is actually getting better, which could cancel out those regress-to-the-mean things. Whatever, how the Angels fare for the first month is going to have a lot to do with how Saunders pitches.

Scenes From Opening Day

Vice President Joe Biden hugs Baltimore Orioles catcher Chad Moeller (16) after throwing out the first pitch at the Baltimore Orioles and New York Yankees opening day baseball game at Camden Yards in Baltimore, Monday, April 6, 2009. (AP Photo/Gail Burton)

Gail Burton, AP

St. Louis Cardinals' Skip Schumaker, left, jogs across the field as he is introduced along with the rest of his team before the start of an Opening Day baseball game between the St. Louis Cardinals and Pittsburgh Pirates Monday, April 6, 2009, in St. Louis. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)

Jeff Roberson, AP

Former President George W. Bush throws out the season opening first pitch with Nolan Ryan looking on before the baseball game between the Cleveland Indians and Texas Rangers in Arlington, Texas, Monday, April 6, 2009.

Tony Gutierrez, AP

New York Yankees starting pitcher CC Sabathia, center, standing with teammates Derek Jeter, left, and Robinson Cano, right, tosses the ball before being pulled from the game during the fifth inning of the opening day baseball against the Baltimore Orioles at Camden Yards in Baltimore, Monday, April 6, 2009. (AP Photo/Gail Burton)

Gail Burton, AP

Chicago Cubs' Alfonso Soriano breaks his bat on his way to grounding out in the second inning in the season opener baseball game against the Houston Astros Monday, April 6, 2009 in Houston. (AP Photo/Pat Sullivan)

Pat Sullivan, AP

The grounds crew runs across the infield to spread a tarp as it starts to rain at Fenway Park during a practice after opening day was postponed due to the weather in Boston, Monday April 6, 2009. The Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays are rescheduled for Tuesday afternoon.

Charles Krupa, AP

A general view of the pregame festivities before the Philadelphia Phillies game against the Atlanta Braves on April 5, 2009 at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Today's game is the opening of the 2009 major league baseball season.

Ezra Shaw, Getty Images

Cameron Dallas, 10, front, and her dad Jay Dallas, of Mansfield, bundle up to stay warm before Opening Day as the Cleveland Indians play the Texas Rangers at the Rangers Ballpark in Arlington, Texas, Monday, April 6, 2009.

Max Faulkner, Fort Worth Star-Telegram / MCT

Arizona Diamondbacks' Stephen Drew, right, slides safely under the tag of Colorado Rockies catcher Chris Iannetta during the third inning of an MLB baseball game Monday, April 6, 2009 in Phoenix. (AP Photo/Matt York)

Matt York, AP

Cleveland Indians catcher Kelly Shoppach, left, looks back after grabbing the throw to see Texas Rangers' Marlon Byrd (22) sliding safely home in the second inning of a baseball game in Arlington, Texas, Monday, April 6, 2009. Byrd and Hank Blalock scored on an RBI single by Jarrod Saltalamacchia. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)

Tony Gutierrez, AP