Messin' With the Texas Rangers

You may have seen our FanHouse preseason MLB predictions for the 2009 season a few days ago. Two of us picked the Texas Rangers to win the AL West. I scoured the internet over the past few days, and, though the search wasn't comprehensive, I couldn't find anyone else who picked the Rangers.

First of all, everyone should realize these picks are for fun. When I see some of the comments under the predictions post, I can't help but scratch my head. When did it become cool to just anonymously tell someone they are stupid without giving your own opinion? That's more cowardly than anything. Regardless, I'll attempt to shed a little light on my personal rationale for the pick.

Offense
By nearly any measure, the Rangers had the best offense in baseball last season. They scored the most runs, had the highest OPS, gathered the most hits, doubled more than anyone else, and accrued the most total bases. They did lose Milton Bradley, who led the majors in OPS, but they'll get a whole season of Hank Blalock (who is still only 28), and younsters such as Ian Kinsler, Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz, David Murphy, Chris Davis and Jarrod Saltalamacchia should make positive strides. Also, with Elvis Andrus getting the call and Kinsler hopefully staying healthy all season, the Rangers will be able to beat you with their legs as well. There is no real reliance on the long ball -- but they'll still hit a ton -- so they will be able to survive any extended slumps. I expect this to be one of the most potent offenses in the league again.

Defense
They made more errors than anyone last year, but the Rangers' overall defense has improved since last season. Andrus is a smooth-fielding shortstop with significant range, a veritable wizard with the glove according to various scouting outlets. The move to start him shifts Michael Young to third base. Assuming Young makes the transition successfully, his range won't be a weakness at the hot corner as it was becoming at short. He has good hands and reaction, and his throwing errors are few and far between. He'll be an upgrade over Blalock and a huge upgrade over the pathetic defense turned in by German Duran, Ramon Vazquez and Davis in 2008. A full season of Chris Davis at first base, though, is a plus over some of the defense they got from Chris Shelton, Ben Broussard and Frank Catalanotto. He handles the position quite well.

In the outfield, Cruz, Murphy and Hamilton are quality defenders on the corners. Of course, the Rangers wish to start all three, and Hamilton is not a center-fielder. His UZR (via Fangraphs) is horrifying. The good news, though, is that Marlon Byrd is on the bench. He plays a very solid center, so he could be used in late innings as a defensive replacement, while Hamilton can shift to a corner and send Murphy or Cruz to the bench.

They really do have the pieces in place to put together an above average defense. And they're gonna need it ...

Pitching
It sucks. Why beat around the bush? I could sit here and argue that the development of Brandon McCarthy, Scott Feldman and Matt Harrison is going to come along quite well this season, but that would be intellectually dishonest. Honestly, though, the five-man rotation does have enough ability to be close to serviceable on a daily basis. Getting better defense could give the guys more confidence to pitch to contact, which helps to avoid home run mistakes. The Rangers offense averaged a hair over five runs per game last season, so the pitching staff should just shoot to give up no more than five runs each outing. If they can allow somewhere in the 4.5 per game range, I could see 85 wins. That should be enough in this division.

On a positive note, Frank Francisco, slated as the closer, has sick stuff. So there's that.

No Guts, No Glory
For the sake of full disclosure, I want to point out there's no way I'd pick a team with this pitching staff in any run-of-the-mill division. The AL West, though, houses only four teams and none of them look good. The Angels offense is still shaky, and their starting pitching is an injury-riddled mess. The A's rotation is just as laughable as the Rangers, and the Mariners aren't ready to turn the corner just yet.

The same could be argued for the Rangers. It's possible the three young back-end starters develop themselves at the big-league level this season and the Rangers add a solid starter in the offseason. But what if they are in the thick of the race come mid-July? They could make a run at Jake Peavy or some other stud starter. I'm not necessarily saying that it's realistic -- just tossing ideas out there.

Next up, I actually think this Rangers team is very likable. It's not like I was wagering money on this sad division. I didn't want to conform to the masses and pick the Angels. The A's are becoming a trendy pick, but I don't like their pitching and like their offense a lot less than the Rangers. I just figured, hey, why not pick the team I'll probably be secretly (not so much anymore, huh?) pulling for to win the division.

Really, the only thing that would have prevented me from picking the Rangers is a fear of being publicly wrong. I don't care about that. No guts, no glory. At least now I have a vested interest in the AL West.

Hey, like I said at the beginning: the picks are supposed to be fun. It's a fun time of the year. It is, after all, Opening Day. The great thing about Opening Day is that everyone has a clean slate. Even the Texas Rangers.