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How many innings is too many for a young pitcher? What sort of year-to-year innings increase is too many? There's not ever really a right answer to these sorts of questions, though everybody's been looking for one for years. Tom Verducci is one that's tried to find an answer, and he's come to a pretty simple conclusion. Every year, he comes out with a list of what's been informally dubbed "the Verducci Effect," which complies all of the pitchers under the age of 25 that saw an inning increase of 30 or more in the previous season.
It seems pretty unsophisticated, but it's proven to be a pretty good shorthand method of finding young pitchers at risk for injury, as about 2/3 of the pitchers on Verducci's list end up with some sort of arm trouble.
On the list this year are two huge names: Tim Lincecum and Cole Hamels. Both the reigning NL Cy Young and the guy that many expect to take it home this year aren't new to injury questions. Hamels has had some arm trouble in the past and missed his Opening Day start this year because of minor elbow troubles, while Lincecum's small build and odd mechanics were part of the reason he fell to the 10th pick in the 2006 draft.
Of course, this doesn't mean that these two guys are going to get hurt, nor does it mean anyone on the list is. But don't be surprised if a few of the 10 guys on Verducci's list end up on the disabled list this year.
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