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When the Colts used their first-round pick on a running back (Donald Brown of Connecticut), I was quite surprised. I knew they needing running back depth, but defensive tackle, middle linebacker and wide receiver seemed much more pressing -- all with quality options on the board. However, I'm not about to question a first-round pick by Bill Polian. Click through this link to see his history with the Colts. What the pick does mean, though, is that Joseph Addai has probably fallen out of favor with the Colts, at least as the every down starter. Let's try to envision the fantasy fallout for this coming season and beyond.
First of all, let's just get it out of the way that the passing game won't really be affected. It certainly helps them open it up a bit, but Peyton Manning, Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark are just fine and dandy as elite options at their positions regardless of the backfield situation.
For Addai, this is bad news. He was banged up in 2008 and was playing behind a banged up offensive line, so you could have made the case that he'd fall too far down draft boards in 2009 fantasy drafts. Now, I'm not so sure. Brown has all the tools to be a solid every-down back in the NFL, and Polian's not wasting a first-rounder, especially when the team had other needs. I believe Polian is basically telling Addai his days as the starter are numbered in Indianapolis with this pick.
That said, neither back is an elite option heading into 2009 at this point. It's very possible there will be a learning curve with Brown, just as there was with Addai early in his rookie season. Running back is a very easy position for the college-to-pro transition, but the Colts have an incredibly complex offensive scheme.
Both Addai and Brown appear to be low-end RB2s heading into the season. If pressed and I was forced to choose between them, I'd definitely take Brown, with my eyes on him taking over the full-time gig by Week 5.
In keeper leagues, Brown is an outstanding pick. The Colts offense is very conducive to huge running back stats.
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