Offseason Fantasy Value Conundrums

Sure, it may be a little early for most normal people to start thinking fantasy football draft, but for us derelict diehards, keeping abreast on the developments of the offseason can provide peace of mind and an advantage in watching things progress as we head into the summer. While the news coming out of the NFL these days is far overshadowed by two wildly entertaining playoff series, there are some pretty critical players to keep an eye on.

A small handful of elite fantasy stars are in the midst of a serious value conundrum. On one hand, they provide an opportunity to nab otherwise surefire first-rounders on the cheap, but not without taking on big-time risk. It is question of "how far do we let them drop before it is critical to pull the trigger?"

Unfortunately, we cannot tell you exactly where these key players will fall quite yet, but we can at least highlight the situations to watch with a hawk's eye. We will certainly keep you posted, but for now, just pay keen attention to these five scenarios. Like Alan Greenspan says, "But how do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values?" Well, that is where we come in.

Marshawn Lynch - After coming off a season where Lynch fell in the mid-to-late first round in most leagues, he delivered a decent fantasy season, but his yardage generally dropped below expectations save for a few great games. Lynch only broke the 100-yard plane three times, and his nine total touchdowns and 1,036 rushing yards can generally be considered disappointing.

Now, add to the complexity of assessing Lynch's value: a potential three-game suspension and the fact that the Bills just re-upped Lynch's No. 2, Fred Jackson, with a four-year extension. Some experts consider Jackson the best backup in the league, so if he steps in with some big time games during the suspension, Lynch may prove to be worth no more than a fourth- or fifth-round pick. So, the keys here to watch are the progression and circumstances surrounding Lynch's appeal to the suspension, and the likelihood that Lynch/Jackson becomes a true committee or if Jackson remains more of a situational and backup runner and pass catcher.

Thomas Jones - Despite a monstrous 2008 season, Thomas Jones' heavily front-loaded salary leaves him expecting just $900,000 in 2009 -- not exactly the type of number one might want as a top-five NFL rusher. Thus, Jones remains AWOL from minicamp. Ironically, so does his backup, as Leon Washington seeks a boost to his expected $535,000 for 2009. With Rex Ryan's recent high praise for Washington, it looks as though he may have no trouble getting his raise and more action in 2009. So, keep a close eye on how these two contract scenarios play out to get a sense of how Rex Ryan and Co. plan to approach their backfield, particularly with the addition of third-round pick Shonn Greene also in the mix. Jones should still have a good season either way given last year's successful retooling of the offensive line, but expect dampened production nonetheless. Keep in mind, Jones' career has been dotted with occasional huge seasons surrounded by otherwise good, but not great ones.

Tom Brady - Brady provides probably the toughest decision in the draft. Taking Sir Tom in the first round will provide owners with a Neil Peart coronary drum solo. While some expected Brady's career might end for good after major knee surgery, Brady, the Pats and the pundits all swear he is healthy and ready for a bounce-back. But is he a first-rounder and top QB in the draft? Keep in mind, the Patriots made a bold statement in getting rid of Cassel, so they must have known something we do not. Also, Brady has a pair of guys called Moss and Welker, and now Fred Taylor to help bolster the backfield. He looks like a gamble worth taking.

Calvin Johnson - Despite his obvious talents and ascent to becoming a league-elite receiver, Johnson faces a season of catching passes from a rookie quarterback and hobbled vet desperately trying to stay in the game. Johnson will likely start the season with Daunte Culpepper under center, which -- lean or not --- does not do him any good. In the five games with Culpepper last season, C.J. did not top six catches and his only real success came on a just a few big plays. Then there is the inevitable looming start for Matt Stafford. While it would be nice to believe that Stafford will come in and save the day, the Lions' offensive line is terrible, so expecting immediate results from Stafford will likely not be a wise bet. Johnson is still the best player on the team so he should see plenty of looks, but his stats may suffer.

Anquan Boldin - The uncertainly surrounding Boldin's location this season may prove to offer a star receiver at a bargain price. While Boldin could end up playing for an offense with less tendency to throw than the pass-happy Cardinals, Boldin is an amazing player who should be able to produce big stats regardless of where he ends up. If Boldin's value drops to the third or fourth round, nab him.