Several Reasons for Cubbie Optimism

Through the first 36 games of the season, it's been quite the bumpy ride for the Cubs. They've gone through as much adversity as they faced during the entire 97-win campaign that was the 2008 regular season. There have been myriad injuries, a suspension, many players suffering through extended slumps, excessive booing by the fans, bullpen meltdowns, and a much, much tougher division.

And yet, Lou Piniella's troops are 21-15. You know what their record was after 36 games in 2008? An identical 21-15.

While there was some adversity in 2008 -- there is always adversity for every team in every season -- most things went well for the Cubs en route to a league-best 97 victories. Mark DeRosa had a career year. Kerry Wood and Carlos Marmol became a filthy back-end of the bullpen after entering the season as question marks (well, Wood was). Ryan Dempster entered his name into the Cy Young discussion after transforming himself from a sub-par closer. Geovany Soto won rookie of the year. Reed Johnson and Jim Edmonds combined for numbers as good as any full-time center-fielder in the National League, and both had been picked up off the scrap heap. And so on, and so on. Things clicked for the Cubs in 2008. We know that.

In 2009, nothing has really clicked yet.

As a fantasy baseball analyst who loves both fantasy and real baseball, I often talk about things normalizing themselves over the course of the season. Most of the Cubs have a track record which shows their play will begin to normalize, and nearly none of them will be normalizing in a negative way. You could argue Kosuke Fukudome will trend downward the rest of the season like he did in 2008, but I'd argue back that he has the talent to keep things going and last year was a huge adjustment for him. Even if he does take a few small steps back offensively, there will be plenty others to pick him up. Consider:

-- Soto struggled through early season shoulder issues. He's just now beginning to find his groove at the plate, but still only has 1 home run and a .204 batting average. He's a much better hitter than that.

-- Milton Bradley has been an OPS machine since 2003. This season he got off to a terrible start, had a groin injury, and served a one-game suspension on Saturday. He's starting to hit the ball, though, as he's hitting .320 with a 1.014 OPS and 7 RBI since May 7. There's more where that came from, as he's still hitting well below his capabilities on the season.

-- Yes, Bradley has been injured and/or suspended often in his history. It's common knowledge because of how often people insist on bringing it up. When he doesn't play, though, the Cubs have good coverage with Micah Hoffpauir and Reed Johnson. Hoffpauir is just hitting exactly as he did last year and what he showed he could do in the minors -- .309 with a .927 OPS is hardly above his ceiling. Johnson's a valuable all-around player who is capable of hitting much better than he is now.

-- Derrek Lee is not even remotely near the power hitter he was for that flukey 2005 season. He's also a much better hitter than to be mired around the Mendoza line. Sunday's four hits, incluing a double and home run, are a sign he's going to start picking it up.

-- Aramis Ramirez is on the shelf for a while with a separated shoulder, and he'd been missing time for a calf injury before that. As long as the Cubs offense picks up the slack in his absence, it will be like adding an All-Star to the middle of the lineup right at the trade deadline when he returns. When he finally finds his stride, it will be in time for the stretch run and he certainly won't be worn down come September and October.

-- Rich Harden has made eight healthy starts without a scare. He's also putting up a career-worst ERA (4.74) after it was a minuscule 2.07 last season. He's better than he's currently showing. It's a great sign that he's healthy, and history shows he'll start shutting down the opposition more often than not as the season progresses.

-- Kevin Gregg has been pretty bad, but he's not 6.06-ERA-bad. Never has been.

-- Carlos Marmol went through an injured knee and then an uncharacteristically abysmal outing in Arizona. Other than that, though, he appears to be himself. That's a good thing.

-- Mike Fontenot is looking like he can't be counted on for consistent offensive production, but he's not this bad. He's currently hitting .204 with a .687 OPS. Last year he put up .305 and .909 in those categories in 284 plate appearances. He'll get better thsi season, even if he can't match those.

-- Carlos Zambrano has missed time due to a pulled hamstring, but Randy Wells has filled in with two sparkling outings (zero earned runs in 11 innings pitched). Big Z likely comes back this Friday, and, with Wells in the house, the Cubs could elect to move lefty Sean Marshall to the bullpen in an effort to keep Neal Cotts from having to pitch in important spots.

Next, we need to consider the injuries have opened up playing time for the bench, and many have responded by showing they can be trusted. We mentioned Hoffpauir and Johnson, but Koyie Hill (.306) and Bobby Scales (.333) have made an impact. Obviously, they can't be trusted to continue these robust offensive numbers over the course of an entire season, but that's not what's being asked of them. The confidence gained from the early success will be important later in the season.

The other players who are playing well (Alfonso Soriano, Ryan Theriot and Ted Lilly, to name three) aren't doing anything ridiculously out of the ordinary -- with the possible exception of Theriot's modest power surge. There's no reason to expect these guys to fall on their faces in the upcoming months.

The schedule is also relatively weak, due to the fact that in inter-league play the NL Central teams are matched up against the mediocre AL Central. A line of Royals, Tigers, Twins, White Sox and Indians looks a bit easier to face than one containing the Blue Jays, Red Sox, Rays and Yankees.

Let us also realize Jim Hendry was hand-cuffed in the offseason by a Tribune-imposed salary cap. The sale to the Ricketts family should be complete before the trade deadline. That means if there is someone out there who can help the Cubs (Jake Peavy!?!), he'll try to make it work.

There's also one last thing: That little fake curse. Cubs fans -- myself included -- will never be satisfied until the team wins the World Series. Any rational person knows there is no such thing as a curse. Let us all, as a group, remember last year's team likely wasn't prepared for the playoffs because they hadn't played a really meaningful game in a month. The team had such a cushy lead in the division and peaked in late August (when they were 84-50 at one point). You need to peak in late September and October like the Phillies so admirably did. With a stronger division and a slow start from many different players, the Cubs could very well be peaking when it actually matters, instead of when it doesn't. If they can outlast the Brewers, Cardinals and Reds in a tough NL Central (or grab a wild card), that will mean a helluva lot more than arbitrarily killing goats -- which is moronic.

Keep the faith, my fellow Cubbie die-hards. It's a marathon, not a sprint, and there are plenty of reasons for optimism.