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Now that we're inside of three weeks to the MLB Draft, the Stephen Strasburg Drama is reaching a fevered pitch. Today, there are two separate stories from Jeff Passan and the Washington Post about just when Strasburg will make his big-league debut. In both stories, Nats' acting GM Mike Rizzo indicates that Strasburg will spend time in the minors after he's drafted. That's not surprising news; FanHouse's Ed Price reported something similar earlier this month. What is surprising is the amount of people that expect to see Strasburg pitching in any sort of professional capacity this season. Strasburg is a Scott Boras client. Historical precedence suggests pretty strongly that Scott Boras clients don't do much playing in the year they're drafted.
In the two drafts since the signing deadline of August 15th was imposed, Boras has had four highly-touted clients picked early in the draft; Mike Moustakas, Matt Wieters, Pedro Alvarez, and Eric Hosmer. All four signed near or at the August 15th midnight deadline. Moustakas played in 11 games the year he was drafted and Hosmer played three. Wieters didn't make his professional debut until the Hawaiian Winter League, and Alvarez didn't play until spring training this spring, some eight months after he was picked. None of them are even pitchers, who would be much more affected by the long layoff. Only Matt LaPorta, picked seventh by the Brewers in 2007 and signed on June 25th, has been signed prior to the deadline.
Why should Strasburg be any different? Boras has already made some ridiculous rumblings, placing his perceived value of Strasburg in the $50 million neighborhood (which is nearly five times what any past draft pick has signed for) and even threatened to take him to Japan if he doesn't get the offer he wants. Last year, he was displeased with how things played out with the Pirates and Alvarez and had the MLBPA file a grievance, alleging the deadline had been violated. When it was all said and done, the Pirates re-negotiated Alvarez's contract; something they had long said they would refuse to do.
I believe Rizzo when he says he's dedicated to signing Strasburg and I think that he'll get it done for far less that Boras's $50 million figure, but it won't be a fast process and if last year is any precedent, it might stretch past the August 15th deadline. Rizzo is right in saying that Strasburg needs some time in the minors and shouldn't go right from the draft to the Nats' rotation, but that's ultimately irrelevant because of the long game of cat and mouse that's going to follow this year's draft.
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