French Open Picks: Will Nadal Fall?

They had to gang up on Rafael Nadal. It was a tag-team effort in Madrid: First, Novak Djokovic softened him up with a four-hour death match. Nadal won. The next day, Roger Federer cleaned up on a tired Nadal with a sore knee.

But the point is, Nadal did fall on clay. It can be done! No one knew that for sure.

So we start the French Open on Sunday, the year's second major. Nadal has won it four years in a row. Can he be stopped now?

No.

He's going to win. He's too good there. The draw doesn't set up for another tag-team, as you don't typically have to play those marathons on consecutive days in majors. Plus, Federer and Djokovic are on the other side of the draw together.

Nadal, Federer, Andy Murray and Djokovic make up the best top-four in tennis history. But it takes perfection for even those others to beat Nadal here. And they're not ready for that.

On the women's side, you get this budding Serena Williams-Dinara Safina rivalry. Safina is ranked No. 1 on the computer, even though she has never won a major. Williams, who has won the past two majors, grumbles that she is the real No. 1. But she doesn't fight unless it's a major.

Safina says that others are jealous of her No. 1 ranking, partly because she's younger.

The pick here is that they will face each other in the finals. But don't put any money on that one. Williams has not been good lately. In fact, after she complained that "quite frankly" everyone knows she's the best, she lost her next match. Meanwhile, Safina appears ready to win the big one, but when she has gotten to the mountaintop before, the air has gotten thin for her.

Choke.

Take Safina over Williams, and Nadal over Federer. Yes, that's No. 1 over No. 2 in both finals. No crazy picks here. But here are some other thoughts about the draw.

Maria Sharapova has a great draw. No one looks at her chances now, but only her pictures. She's not the best on clay, and she just came back last week from major shoulder surgery. She's rusty and on the wrong surface.

But I think she's going to get to the quarters, anyway, to lose to Venus Williams. But this isn't Venus' special place, either. Sharapova might be about to put up a shocking fight.


Every time I start believing in Andy Roddick, he disappoints. It's like Lucy with the football and Charlie Brown. I keep telling myself not to fall for it again. Well, Roddick is starting to look better to me. He took a set off Federer.

He skipped most of the clay court season while honeymooning. But if it's hot in Paris, then the courts stay dry, and the power players have a chance to muscle through the dirt. That's the hope for Roddick and for James Blake. The temperature is supposed to be in the low 70s most of the first week.

Five more degrees, and ... no, I'm not falling for Roddick again.

Serena Williams had better be good. She's right about being the best. Everyone knows it. That's why it's so frustrating when she disappears. She usually steps it up in majors. She is a mystery now. If she shows up in shape, it would be a good start.

Federer, Djokovic and Murray. OK, Federer has Nadal on the brain. When Nadal beat him 6-1, 6-3, 6-0 in last year's French final, that humiliation was the beginning of the great fall of the great Federer.

But while people were a little slow to notice Federer's fall, now everyone has gone overboard noticing it.

Look, the guy isn't done. Once Federer stops believing that his greatness is innate, and that he can out-think everyone, then he's going to take some chances, be more aggressive and win more majors.

Maybe that's finally happening.

But he's not ready to fight off Nadal in five sets in Paris, not ready to be that aggressive for that long.

Djokovic has the game. But he never seems to have the fitness for long.

Yes, he went four tough hours against Nadal. Good start. But it wasn't Paris, wasn't a major, wasn't this particular dirt.

Murray is going to win majors. He can do anything, and has added power when needed. But he hasn't looked good in the clay court season. He's not ready to beat Nadal in the semis.

The women really need someone to take charge. Ana Ivanovic is the defending champ, and was No. 1 for about 15 minutes. But she fell apart under the pressure of being No. 1. I mean, she has even had trouble tossing the ball on her serve. You get the feel she might play well again soon, but under the pressure of defending? Forget it.

Quick Hits: Fernando Verdasco is closing in on the big four. He might face Nadal in the quarters ... Gaston Gaudio is back. Remember him? He won the French in 2004 when Guillermo Coria choked big-time at the end of a marathon match. Five years later, Coria is retiring, saying he has lost his fight. And Gaudio is ranked No. 359. It was a classic final five years ago, and it seemed to wipe both of them out for good ... Elena Dementieva vs. Jelena Jankovic in the quarters. That'll be the best match in the tournament that no American notices. Jankovic wins ... Nadal's knees seem to be a discussion. They're going to get him eventually, as wild as he storms the court. But not yet.