Can the Nuggets Improve?

The Nuggets far exceeded expectations this season. The team ranked not as the squad most likely to scare the snot out of the Lakers, but as the old guard least likely to return to the postseason in the New World.

Chauncey Billups, Nene, Kenyon Martin, Carmelo Anthony, George Karl, Chris Andersen, J.R. Smith and Joe Dumars changed that. The opening week trade for Mr. Big Shot completely transformed the spirit of the team, as did Karl's summer decision to focus on defense, even at the expense of his stars' allegiance. Everything else went right, for the most part.

But the franchise sit has payroll cuts to consummate, and little in the way of burgeoning youth to fill the holes. By trading the promise of cap space (in the convenient form of Allen Iverson) for Billups, the Nuggets trade a minor rebuild for contention. It worked -- the Nuggets were legit contenders. But what now? How can they possibly get better?

ESPN's John Hollinger notes how strict and troublesome the Nuggets' cap situation looks. But swapping Iverson's $20 million expiring contract for a few years of Billups at $11-14 million and one more season of partial salary for Antonio McDyess, Denver asked for this. Now, the piper has come. Denver has to cut salary to meet owner Stan Kroenke's luxury tax threshold requirement, even with some vital rotation players coming up for free agency.

The biggest free agency question mark will obviously be Dahntay Jones, for much of the year Denver's starting two-guard. Jones is a defender first and foremost, a long and agile pest who does much better on the quick (Chris Paul) than the strong (Kobe Bryant). Jones came right off the scrap heap this season, making the minimum. He'll want a substantial raise, or at least a substantial committment. But Denver can't afford to give too much, lest a major salary give-away -- Camby II -- becomes necessary. No matter how well Martin played this season (especially on defense), no one will take over his $31 million guaranteed over two years without a similarly disgusting contract coming back. Denver shouldn't want to trade Nene, who somehow became a bargain this season. Anthony and Billups are obviously untouchables, and Smith is dirt cheap for a cat who can pop off for 40 points any given night.


So it must come down to the fringe -- the Renaldo Balkmans and Steven Hunters. Denver exercised Balkman's 2009-10 option last fall; Karl almost never used him on the court, despite a reputation as a high energy defender. Could a team take a one-year flyer on Balkman for $2.1 million? Would that be enough to comfortably sign up Jones on a two- or three-year deal -- a starting salary of about $2 million? It seems right. And you'd think one of the teams expected to have a bit of cap space would be willing to bring in Balkman, if not now then at the next deadline as a part of a bigger deal. (Think Michael Ruffin to Portland for Ike Diogu this year.) I think Denver can safely assume Balkman can be moved off the books without return salary sometime before the next trade deadline, which is when the team's season payroll figure is basically set.

Hunter? That'd be more difficult. The big man is owed $3.7 million in a player option he'll surely take. Injuries and an apparent feud with Karl kept him on the bench this season. Hunter has decent numbers in limited minutes over his career, but every dollar counts and Hunter costs too much for his limited potential rewards, especially in comparison with the younger Balkman. This isn't to say Denver couldn't move Hunter for a player who'd fit better -- that could certainly happen. But that'd involve Denver taking cash back, and that doesn't help the payroll situation.

Anthony Carter can be replaced by the No. 34 pick or he can be re-signed cheaply. Johan Petro should be renounced on July 1 at 12:01 AM. (No offense, he's just not a usuable player in Denver, unless Nene's broken arm falls off.) Linas Kleiza you'd keep on the rolls as a restricted free agent, looking for sign-and-trade opportunities -- it could be a route toward upgrading Jones at the two-guard, assuming other financial moves (such as jetting away Balkman) could be made. But Kleiza's Nugget days should be over, not because Kleiza isn't a good fit, but because Denver can't justify paying substantial salary to another back-up given the financial constraints.

Of course, you look at all of this, and none of it really involves a talent upgrade. Billups is getting older. Martin is getting older. Nene, Anthony and Smith are moving toward their primes, and could very well improve. But is marginal improvement from those fellows enough to catch up to L.A. and hold off Houston, Portland and maybe Utah? To really get better, the Nuggets may need to pull off another shocking trade, another Camby cut followed by a Billups shocker. If we learned anything this year, the Nuggets won't be afraid to get bold.